ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism.
Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the Cleveland Indians.
Cleveland Indians
Reason for optimism: Cleveland's rotation is one of the best in the majors.
Reason for pessimism: The Indians' defense did an incredible job of neutralizing that advantage in 2014.
The pitching staffs of the Indians and the Tampa Bay Rays comfortably led the majors in strikeout rate in 2014, whiffing 23.4 percent of the batters they faced (the Dodgers were third at 22.6 percent). Yet compared to the Rays, Indians hurlers allowed 77 more balls hit into the field of play (excluding home runs). Even more striking, Indians fielders saw only nine fewer balls hit at them than the Padres, whose staff struck out batters at a materially lower rate (21.4 percent). Why was that?
The answer is that the Indians' defense converted batted balls into outs at the worst rate in baseball. Compared to just a league-average conversion rate, the Indians' defense allowed nearly 80 extra baserunners, equating to roughly 40 runs and more than four wins. Despite the impressive rate at which Cleveland pitchers struck out batters, that edge was all but squandered by the defense behind them. It was the 29th worst showing in baseball and it's why the Indians, with an above-average offense and the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked pitching staff by SIERA and xFIP respectively, ended up with the 14th-ranked ERA in 2014 and missed the playoffs.
In 2015, Cleveland's starting rotation, which easily led the majors in strikeout rate and featured Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber, may be even better this year. The Indians got more than 20 starts from only two pitchers last year (Kluber and Trevor Bauer) so if they can get at least two dozen starts in 2015 from both Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar (who quietly had an excellent second half after a brief trip to the minors to harness his electric stuff, reminiscent of a similar journey Max Scherzer took in 2010) there is considerable upside to be had. Bullpen performance is highly variable from year to year, but Cleveland's 'pen, thanks to its ability to strike out batters (23.5 percent) and induce ground balls (49 percent, sixth highest rate among bullpens) has the collective skills to support an overall 3.12 ERA for the team.
On offense, the Indians have some low-hanging fruit to pick in an effort to improve their run production. Cleveland got sub-replacement level performance from two vitally important areas of offensive production -- right field and designated hitter. Brandon Moss, with an .848 OPS over his last three seasons of regular playing time, is an excellent bet to increase right field production. The Indians are standing pat with Nick Swisher at DH, however, hoping his across-the-board career lows in 2014 were a function of injuries which landed him on the DL (twice) for the first time since 2005. In truth, they don't have much choice, as Swisher is signed through the 2017 season and owed $44 million in that time span.
Thus, it would appear Cleveland's 2015 fortunes are going to come down to defense. If the Indians improve their efficiency at turning batted balls into outs, this is a 90-win team in waiting. If not -- and they've been ranked 15th, 22nd and 29th from 2012 to '14 in that category with a lot of the same personnel -- it'll be a third-straight down-to-the-wire battle for an AL wild-card spot. That would have to be a disappointment for Indians fans who watched their team get better each quarter last season playing the equivalent of 77-, 79-, 89- and finally 95-win baseball over each successive 40- and 41-game stretch. You can excuse them for thinking Cleveland was peaking at the perfect time, only to watch another AL Central team win the pennant.
The Indians' total wins market opened at an absurdly low 80 wins in Reno before quickly resetting about five games higher once the Vegas markets were posted. Now at 84.5 games, there is probably an equal balance to upside and downside risk. The defensive limitations that annually dog this squad are too big to ignore to make this a play.
2015 projection: 84-78 (first, AL Central)
Bet recommendation: Pass