We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
Tampa Bay Rays
Vegas projection: 78.5 wins
My projection: 87 wins
Current record/pace: 46-45 (82-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 85.7 wins
What's gone right: You can be sure this section would have looked very different just three weeks ago.
A 3-15 stretch ensured that by the close of play on July 9, the Rays were just one game out of last place (a three-game sweep of Houston leaves them 3.5 games out of first at the break). So who are the real Rays? My answer might not surprise you: They're the same potential 87-win team I saw at the beginning of the season, in a division where that just might be enough to sneak away with the crown.
Defensively, Tampa Bay is in a dead heat with Baltimore as the best in the division (and third best in baseball). However, the Rays project to give up fewer runs, by a healthy margin, because their pitching staff strikes out more batters and walks/hits fewer of them. Simply put, both teams may turn the same high percentage of batted balls into outs, but it will always result in fewer baserunners and runs for Tampa because Baltimore's fielders will have to field more batted balls. No other team in the division can come close to matching that combination of defense and pitching skills. I feel very confident in forecasting the Rays to give up the fewest runs in the division over the second half of the season.
What's gone wrong: Of course, runs allowed is only half of the equation. When it comes to scoring runs, the Rays certainly have a competitive disadvantage against the rest of their division, which has four of the top-13 scoring teams in baseball. Through 81 games, the Rays scored anywhere from 150 fewer runs (Toronto) to 44 fewer runs (Boston) than the other AL East teams. While I don't dispute the order of those rankings, I'm not sure that the magnitude of those differences is accurate. The Rays were unlucky in converting their offensive production into runs, while the Orioles and the Blue Jays had efficiency of hitting (hits per runs scored) that looks unsustainable.
This is a team that has been ravaged by injuries, but help might be on the way. Matt Moore is back in the rotation and John Jaso has looked very good in his first full week of action this season. Given that catcher and DH represent some of the weakest offensive output for the Rays this year, Jaso's traditionally high OBP would be a big help.
Second-half outlook: Things looked a lot better for Tampa Bay a couple of weeks ago. The Rays simply play a different brand of baseball than the other teams in the division, and when the blueprint for winning involves a lot of 3-2 victories, there is little margin for error. Squandering 10-games-over-.500 positioning in just over two weeks may ultimately be the team's undoing.
But if you believe, like I do, that the formula is still there to finish ahead of their opponents in the AL East, you don't have to look any further that the season-to-date pricing above to know you'll get value every time the Rays play an intradivisional game. Despite being in second place and one game out of first at the 81-game mark, oddsmakers had made Tampa the cheapest AL East to bet on during the first half of the season. It could still be a lot of fun -- and very profitable -- to back the Rays the rest of the way. C'mon Buster, there's still room to ride shotgun on the bandwagon!