ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism.
Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the Tampa Bay Rays.
Tampa Bay Rays
Reason for optimism: A 2014 win-loss record that vastly understates Tampa Bay's production, has positioned the still sneaky-good Rays to steal the AL East.
Reason for pessimism: Loss of talent in the dugout is tough to quantify, but no one thinks Joe Maddon's departure is additive.
Thanks to the popularity of Bill James' Pythagorean Theorem, which states that a team's run differential is more indicative of its true talent level than its win/loss record, many casual fans of baseball (and all data-informed bettors on baseball), follow a team's run differential throughout the season. By that measure, the 2014 edition of the Rays performed to a 79- or 80-win level team. As the Rays won only 77 games last season, they are said to have been "unlucky" to the tune of at least two wins.
But that only begins to tell the story of Tampa's 2014 misfortune.
Run differential formulas, refined since James first published his theorem more than 30 years ago, convert actual runs scored and allowed into expected win percentages, but there's a second derivative that measures a team's expected runs scored and allowed based on its actual combination of hits and on-base successes.
Here's a quick example: Tampa's pitching staff ranked third in batting average against, and tied for fifth in both on-base percentage against, and slugging percentage against. Despite being top-five in suppressing hits and power, and preventing baserunners overall, the Rays were 13th in runs allowed. Although not quite as severe on offense, Tampa suffered negative cluster luck at the plate as well. Put it all together and based on expected runs scored and allowed, the 2014 Tampa Bay Rays were an 86-win team in 77-win clothing. From a betting standpoint, that sets up a lot of value in 2014 as the Rays, despite roster changes, project to be just as good this year.
For the first time since the 2008 stretch run that led to an American League pennant, David Price isn't coming through the Rays' clubhouse door. But while he certainly can't be replaced with equal talent, it's possible the Rays' rotation will actually be better this year. That's because the team that displayed 86-win talent in 2014 is not only replacing 23 starts of 3.59 RA (unearned and earned runs per 9 IP) from Price but also 28 starts of combined >5.00 RA production from Jeremy Hellickson and Erik Bedard. Replicating Price's 2014 production is unlikely -- improving on the combined 51-start production of all three departed starters is actually probable. The front four in the rotation of Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, and Drew Smyly matches up well with Cleveland in the battle for second-best rotation in the American League behind Seattle.
On offense, while it is arguable the Rays -- based on 361 plate appearances in 2014 by then 23-year-old Wil Myers -- sold low in trading Myers to the Padres, we're concerned with projecting marginal changes to the production of an 86-win team. Despite his future potential, Myers' 361 plate appearances in 2014 represented abysmal production for a corner outfielder. Overall, the Rays have upgraded their production at a few different spots, including at catcher where Rene Rivera projects to provide more offense than Jose Molina (without a drop in pitch framing value).
Finally, there's evidence that even Tampa Bay's defense succumbed to bad luck last year. In 2012 and 2013, the Rays ranked fifth and second respectively at converting batted balls into outs and erasing baserunners already on base; last year they finished 16th. The biggest reason is because they turned a paltry 96 double plays -- the fewest double plays ever turned by a team in a non-strike year since the schedule increased to 162 games. It's highly unlikely a team that skilled at turning batted balls into outs will repeat such a low occurrence of double plays -- another hidden element of sequencing that should revert to the mean in 2015.
Vegas opened the Rays season win total at 79.5 and it has drifted lower to 78. Last year, the Rays were one of the most disappointing teams in baseball, breaking a string of six straight over-.500 seasons -- a streak matched (and bettered) by only the Yankees and the Cardinals. That has led to muted expectations for the 2015 season and, as a result, the Rays are the most undervalued team on the board. On a board that favors more "under" than "over" calls, this is the rare high-conviction "over" play.
2015 projection: 87-75 (first, AL East)
Betting recommendation: Over