We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
Minnesota Twins
Vegas projection: 73.5 wins
My projection: 68 wins
Current record/pace: 49-40 (88-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 73.4 wins
What has gone right: How about, everything.
For all the ways to poke holes in this year's success, one thing is undeniable: Brian Dozier followed up his age-27 breakout year in 2014 with a campaign that could legitimately land him high on MVP ballots by year's end. He is the new face of the franchise.
The Twins signing of Torii Hunter (who turns 40 in July) last winter had all the markings of a last-place team trying to provide a feel-good moment for the fan base by signing a former star. Whatever the motivation, Hunter has been nothing short of an asset to the team on the field. As Detroit learned the past couple of years, he's nowhere close to a Gold Glove fielder anymore but he's still a high-contact hitter with some pop in his bat and he's providing above-average corner outfield production at the plate for Minnesota. Oh yes, the other thing that has gone right for the Twins is luck. While he calculates things a bit differently than I do, Ed Feng as taken the principles of Cluster Luck that I laid out in my book and turned it into a website that's updated daily. You can see that in 2015 the Twins have been the second-luckiest team on both sides of the ledger, which makes them by a wide margin the luckiest team in baseball.
What has gone wrong: It's odd that with so much home-grown talent, as well as the return of Hunter, that Joe Mauer hasn't played a meaningful role in the return to respectability. However, in a league in which first basemen are the most productive hitters, Mauer's six home runs and .392 SLG put the Twins at a competitive disadvantage on a nightly basis.
One of the reasons the Twins success has been unexpected is because, from a pitching standpoint, the leaders on the staff were known quantities with long track records of mediocrity. Kyle Gibson (3.04 ERA) and Tommy Milone (2.84 ERA) have startled everyone with their career-best years. Well, it turns out they're not doing anything differently. Gibson and Milone, and in fact the Twins as a whole, are the same low-strikeout pitchers they've always been and the Twins profile to have third-highest ERA in baseball, with an average defense, which is about what they possess.
Second-half outlook: Despite the incredible amount of luck present to date, the Twins were still sporting a positive run differential of only five runs after 81 games. Yes, the wins are banked but there is simply no way that they can continue to convert their production into playoff contention. While underlying production could improve -- and the call-up of Miguel Sano is a great way to start -- the skill sets of the pitching staff look limited. Last year the Royals' regular-season success baffled many because they couldn't see past the league-worst power to notice the huge advantages that Kansas City's bullpen and defense provided. I freely admit that I fall into that category when looking at the Twins this year.
I can't get past the fact that the Twins' pitchers, backed by an average defense at best, can't strikeout batters in an era of baseball when striking out batters is at an all-time high. Based on the still reasonable pricing oddsmakers provide on a daily basis, if the Twins continue to win it's going to make their backers a lot of money.