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Crawford-Porter experts' picks: Can aggressive Shawn Porter disrupt dominance of Terence Crawford?

Welterweight champion Terence Crawford and former champion Shawn Porter will face off in a megafight main event of Saturday's Top Rank card at Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino in Las Vegas (ESPN+ PPV, 9 p.m. ET, with prelims at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and ESPN+).

Crawford (37-0, 28 KOs), 34, of Omaha, Nebraska, has been looking for a signature fight, and Porter brings that challenge. Porter has fought the best fighters the division has to offer, defeating Paulie Malignaggi, Adrien Broner and Danny Garcia, among others.

Crawford won his belt by defeating Jeff Horn in 2018 and has made four successful defenses. In his most recent fight, in November 2020, Crawford scored a fourth-round TKO victory over Kell Brook.

Porter (31-3-1, 17 KOs), 34, of Akron, Ohio, has seen it all and can box or brawl, depending on the opposition. He will have to be aggressive against Crawford if he wants to pull the upset -- a performance similar to what he did in a close loss to Errol Spence Jr. when he challenged for the WBC and IBF titles in 2019.

During a news conference in October to officially announce the fight, Crawford said Porter has never been in the ring with a fighter like him and that he's ready for his aggressive style.

"Unlike other fighters that you fought, I'm different. I believe you know that I'm different," Crawford said. "The more you push, the more I will push. You hit me hard, and I will hit you even harder if you can last. That's what makes this fight a great fight.

"A dominating win against Porter will boost my status as the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world."

Porter acknowledged Crawford is a tough fighter but believes he knows how to accomplish something nobody else has to so far.

"He is a dominant fighter. Everyone he gets in the ring with, he dominates," Porter said. "I want to be the one fighter that he can't dominate. Everything that is required to beat Terence, I got it. It's time to take on this challenge.

ESPN asked former opponents of Crawford and Porter, plus boxing insiders, for their take on the fight and their predictions.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Luis Arias, middleweight contender

Arias defeated Porter twice as an amateur

How Crawford wins: He's gonna have to show a strong chin. He has to be able to take Porter's best shots and withstand the pressure. And to do that, he has to be in good condition. Porter is going to be throwing a lot of punches. Can Crawford take them?

On offense, Crawford needs to counter Porter, fight from a distance and use Porter's aggressiveness against him. Keep the fight on the outside to control Porter. Porter's going to come at him and try to maul him. If Crawford is able to control him while taking Porter's best shots and can keep him at bay, he will be able to beat him.

Use the jab, counter him. Crawford has to be able to land his hard shots when he has the opportunity. Porter is not hard to hit, but it's very hard to stop him.

How Porter wins: Porter has to land the hard shots and crack him. He needs to find a way to hurt Crawford early. Crawford's plan is going to be staying on his back foot and box him. So Porter is going to have to show him he's in great condition and find a way to gain his respect by hurting him early. If he doesn't gain his respect, he's gonna be in for a long night.

X-factor: Porter's effectiveness. Porter is going to be right in front of Crawford's face. He's willing to take shots to be able to land his punches, but he needs those punches that he lands to be effective. This is an evenly matched fight. It's the typical boxer vs. the aggressive puncher. Porter doesn't have great KO power, but he has volume, he hits you a lot and he physically wears you down, and that makes for a hard fight for the opponent.

Prediction: My only doubt here is Crawford's chin. Crawford is very strong, but we have seen that Porter has a strong chin; he always has. He was fighting at 165 pounds [as an amateur], he fought Daniel Jacobs in the U.S. Nationals, he fought me and Oleksandr Usyk at middleweight. I'm not too worried about his chin, but I do want to see how Crawford takes Porter's punches. If Crawford can withstand those punches and he can take it and dish it, then he should be able to win. But again, if Porter goes in there and hurts him early and stays on him, Porter is going to win. I have to see who has the better chin. The one with the better chin is going to win. I'm leaning towards Crawford, because he always finds a way to get it done and has knocked a lot of guys out. But I'm not counting Porter out.


Shakur Stevenson, junior lightweight champion, former teammate of Crawford

How Crawford wins: He has to outbox Porter, be smarter than him. Make sure he lands that big shot. Porter likes to leap in to throw punches, and he leaves himself open, especially late in the fight. We saw Porter get dropped by AB [Adrien Broner] in the 12th round. We saw him get dropped by Errol Spence Jr. in the 11th round, so I feel like if Crawford catches him late and he hurts him, Crawford is a great finisher. He will finish him out.

How Porter wins: Don't fight. Don't get in the ring. The only way for Porter to win the fight is by not getting in the ring. There's no way he can beat Crawford. Porter's style can give Crawford some problems in general, but to beat Crawford you have to be a special kind of fighter. I don't think Porter is as special as he says he is.

X-factor: Preparation. I know Bud always prepares well. He is always gonna be ready for this kind of fight. He's focused. He has a big task in front of him, and we are gonna see the best of him. I haven't been with him in the gym, but I know he has put in the work.

Prediction: Crawford is going to win by stoppage, probably in the 11th round.


Yordenis Ugas, welterweight champion

Ugas lost a split decision to Porter in 2019 and defeated Crawford as an amateur in 2007

How Crawford wins: It's going to be an even and competitive fight. Crawford must keep his distance. He has many tools, but Porter is also a very good and talented fighter. They both know how to box and they know how to attack, but I think the best option for Crawford is to fight from a distance. I think that he is going to box from the outside, and that is where he is going to have the best opportunity to land his power punches.

How Porter wins: His strength is when he gets inside, when he gets close and throws his punches at a short distance. When he attacks on the inside, he's more dangerous. This is where he will have the most advantage to beat Crawford. Attack, close the spaces, fight dirty, pressure him, same as he did against Spence. When I fought Porter, he boxed me; he kept his distance. But against Crawford, Porter is going to have to fight inside and attack more. Look for the fight at close range, again, like he did against Spence.

X-factor: When I faced Crawford as an amateur, I wasn't thinking about becoming a professional or anything like that, but when I saw him, I always thought that he was going to be a world champion. He was always very good; he had all the tools. He is a very special boxer.

Prediction: I see an even fight, 50-50 fight. I can't really pick a winner, they are both very good fighters. I really don't know who's going to win. I would like to face the winner, so whoever wins, I want that fight.


Ray Beltran, former lightweight champion

Beltran lost to Crawford by decision in 2014

How Crawford wins: He's a very good counterpuncher and a very strategic fighter. That's going to serve him well against Porter. When I fought Crawford, I was very comfortable in the first three rounds, I think I hurt him once or twice. But Crawford didn't stay in front of me; he was very smart. He was always a step ahead of me. I would make a move, and he was already a step ahead of me. In the first few rounds I was like, "Oh, man, I'm good." But after that, everything changed. That's what Crawford does very well; he adjusts and takes over the fight. He must lose the first few rounds, but he's so smart, it's like he's studying your mistakes. Then he starts working and boom, boom, boom. You can't catch him. He is the aggressor and dictates the fight.

How Porter wins: The most success other fighters have had against Crawford has been in the first three or four rounds, but after that, Crawford figured them out and took over. Porter is very aggressive and very wild, he may give Crawford some problems, won't give him time to adjust. So his best chance is in the first few rounds. Porter has to make it a street fight, fight dirty, be wild, aggressive, don't give Crawford a chance to get in rhythm. Like when Jose Luis Castillo fought Floyd Mayweather the first time, Castillo was aggressive, lashing out, being wild. Porter has to do the same against Crawford, who's a very good defensive fighter like Mayweather was.

X-factor: Crawford's accuracy. Sometimes people think about his speed and his power, but his accuracy is incredible. His timing is so good. He's patient, and he knows when to throw his punches. Like Mikey Garcia, he's not that fast, but he knows when to land his punches. Crawford is the same way.

Prediction: Crawford by decision, but I wouldn't be surprised if Crawford pushes the fight and gets a KO in Round 8 or Round 9.


Aureliano Sosa, trainer to Jarrell "Big Baby" Miller, Peter Quillin and Chris Colbert

How Crawford wins: Crawford is going to have to keep Porter at a certain distance, because Porter is gonna keep coming and coming. He's very aggressive, and he throws shots from any angle. As far as talent, Crawford is the better fighter. But he has to control that distance. And to do that, Crawford is going to rely on his jab, throw a lot of jabs, feints, not a lot of movement, but those half-steps back he's so good at. Keep Porter at the end of his jab, and when he sees that Porter makes a mistake or is being overly aggressive, he has to make him pay. And how does he do that? Porter is going to be leaning in or launching in, and that's when Crawford has to land his combinations. If Porter is leaning in, use the uppercut. If he's launching in, use the right hand. But he needs to catch Porter coming in.

How Porter wins: He has to be on Crawford's chest from the beginning to the end. He's definitely gonna have to be more aggressive, because Crawford's talent is a little better ... actually not that much. Porter has fought everybody. He's seen different kinds of offense and defense; he's seen it all. But in order for him to win, he has to be in Crawford's face, throw a lot of punches. Don't be a gentleman. Be a bully. Hit him; bite him. Do whatever you have to do to get him off his game plan and stay busy for all 12 rounds.

X-factor: Pressure. Porter has to test Crawford's chin. Crawford is considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, but in reality he really hasn't fought an A-guy, an elite guy. He fought Kell Brook, Amir Khan, Viktor Postol, but they were past their prime or not elite. This is Crawford's biggest test, even with Porter probably in the back part of his career. But Porter has fought everybody and should be a tough matchup for Crawford, the toughest of his career so far.

Prediction: Crawford by unanimous decision. I wouldn't be surprised if Crawford catches Porter coming in with a perfect counter shot. If he catches Porter at the right time, there's a good possibility he could stop him.