On Saturday, Canelo Alvarez faces Caleb Plant for the undisputed super middleweight title at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Alvarez, ESPN's No. 1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world, has never held all four belts in a division. As the 31-year-old enters one of the biggest fights of his career, how does he intend to add Plant to his long list of vanquished opponents? And how can Plant, the undefeated IBF super middleweight champion, go about trying to shock the world?
ESPN boxing analyst and two-division world champion Timothy Bradley Jr. breaks down the keys to this fight, the strategies both fighters will likely employ and the X factors that could swing things in either direction.
What makes Canelo Alvarez great? How has he been able to pick up more and more knockouts as his career has progressed, even as he has moved up in weight? Alvarez has transitioned his career in recent years, and he feels like a throwback to the champions of another era.
Sugar Ray Robinson fought 12 times in 1965, occasionally fighting two fights a month. Alvarez isn't close to that, of course, but there's a lesson to be learned there. When a boxer fights more often, he begins to accumulate important elements that help at the highest levels of boxing -- things like elite conditioning and sharpness.
Each time a fighter fights, he gathers information both about his opponent, and also himself. Going up against elite competition as Alvarez has over the years, he has developed his killer instinct. Alvarez is able to recognize tiny things in a fighter's body language, the way someone breathes, moves and reacts, and those experiences have heightened his ability to finish a fighter, now more than ever.
He has mastered the art of deception. When he is marching forward with his high guard, he forces his opponents to panic to try to get to their punch, allowing his highly trained eyes to locate openings for his vicious counters. And when he's in reverse, he creates an illusion by simulating a loss of control or vulnerability, making the opposing fighter feel brave and in control. Opponents might think to themselves, "I've got the champ backing up," but in reality, Alvarez is luring them into a trap.
Alvarez alters these tactics back and front sometimes, combining the two simultaneously. He uses a lot of misdirection through hand and foot feints to set up his offense as well, making his opponents cover up in front, or react with offense, leaving themselves exposed. During this process, Alvarez examines his opposition and based on the response, sets up one of his lighting quick counters.
What is it like to actually step into the ring with a fighter of the magnitude of Alvarez?
I've shared the ring with two legendary fighters, Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez. It's nerve-racking during the buildup, to a point you can't sleep. Your senses are on the edge and your nervous system is on overload, filling you with anxiety.
Fights are won or lost in the 24 hours before you step into the ring. You have to fight against doubt, and the worry of failing. Then, once you're inside the ring, you can almost feel the aura coming off a special fighter as you stand 20 feet away from them, waiting for that opening bell. I've even lost some of the sensation in my legs -- that's why you see most boxers jumping around during the ring announcements.
Will the animosity in the lead-up affect things on fight night?
The bad blood between these two is real. Punches were thrown at a news conference, and injuries transpired. Early blood was shed. My concern for Plant is not that he'll take that animosity to heart, and get overly aggressive. It's that the difficulty of not being able to shut off his mind will add to a lot of things he already has to manage in this fight.
It could also weigh on the preparation for the fight. Overtraining is a huge concern, especially because Plant tends to fade late in fights. And with that tendency, you have to question the preparation that Plant and his team have under the best of circumstances, let alone when Plant needs to be at his full potential heading into Saturday and then fight the perfect fight. As opposed to Alvarez staying busy, if Plant fought more often than three times in two years, he would have a better understanding of his body and what's needed to make him tick.
What can Plant learn from watching Alvarez's fight against Billy Joe Saunders?
For a lot of people who watched Alvarez-Saunders, it might have felt like there were some moments when Saunders could've broken through. He started strong, winning the first round, and he was down only 3-2 through the first five rounds on all three judges' cards.
But it was an illusion -- there was no weakness in Alvarez's fight against Saunders. A battle is won over a 12-round stretch, for 36 minutes. Alvarez's objective is to wear down his opponent by pressuring, blocking and striking, which is fairly straightforward. He'll do that by moving, slipping and striking. But the true greats, like Alvarez, will occasionally give an opponent hope to suit a certain strategy, and then take it all away at the right moment.
What's Alvarez's approach for this fight?
Alvarez has mastered every weapon in boxing. He has a full-punch arsenal, from a basic jab to lead left hooks, straight rights, uppercuts and body shots. It makes him dangerous and capable of a knockout every second of every round. The two punches I see that will make their mark on Plant are the left hook to the head and body, plus the right hand to the head. When he's under pressure, Plant defaults to a position known by many experts as "no man's land."
From an Orthodox stance, to get stuck in this position, a fighter widens their base past shoulder width apart. That causes them to transfer 75% of their weight onto the back foot. They drop levels by bending the back leg and leaning slightly back, and position their head near the back foot while showing minimum body exposure.
I've seen many fighters divert to this position subconsciously, including myself. We think we are safe, but in reality we are not. This position keeps a fighter beached and immobile, only allowing you to throw an occasional up jab. Defensively, it also allows you to be timed and countered with left hooks and right hands.
What's Plant's path to pull off the upset?
Plant's left hand is the key to victory. His jab usage is also extremely important. He must show a variety of looks when sitting in front and throwing those different jabs. The vertical jab is a great weapon to use to split Alvarez's heavy usage of the high guard. The power jab should be implemented to push Alvarez back. Plant should alter the tempo and cadence on his jab to keep Alvarez off-balance and hide his own offense.
Plant's main ingredient for success needs to be mental fortitude. He has the skills, hand speed, reflexes, size and reach to navigate and pull off this upset if he has a perfect fight.
So what does he have to do to beat Alvarez? He has to outbox him one round at a time.
Plant should try to win a lot of the early rounds. Seven clear, clean rounds is all that he needs, and then five rounds where he has to stay on his feet without touching the canvas. It's going to take immense concentration, conditioning and self-belief. Plant can't afford to fall asleep for a single second, especially during the second half of the fight, because that's when Alvarez will take him into deep waters.
It's going to be tough for Plant, because he tends to fade because his offense and defense relies heavily on his cardio early. His quick, sharp combinations and footwork require an abundance of energy.
How do you see this fight ultimately playing out?
Plant is 21-0 and the IBF super middleweight champion for a reason. The win over Jose Uzcategui was impressive, and he has had some good title defenses. But he has never been in there with anyone close to the level of Alvarez.
As I said before, he's going to have to fight a perfect fight, and while Plant has the tools to potentially do it, I just don't see it happening. There's a reason Alvarez is a 10-1 betting favorite. I don't see this fight going the distance either. I think Alvarez pieces Plant up, and then knocks him out with a body shot in the middle to late rounds.