It's a simple question: Which conference has been No. 1 in college basketball this season? Is it the Big Ten or Big 12 based on top-to-bottom depth? Is it the ACC for the amount of top-15 teams? We posed this question to former coaches Fran Fraschilla and Seth Greenberg to settle the debate, at least for the moment. Both also provided sleeper picks for every major conference tournament.
No. 1 conference
Fran Fraschilla: There are many different ways to measure which conference had the strongest season. The ACC has certainly been top-heavy, with five very good teams in Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville and North Carolina. Because I saw the Big 12 play so much, I happen to think that from 1-to-10 it was easily the deepest conference in the country.
That’s not just my eyeballs telling me. Their 83 nonconference win percentage was the highest in 10 years, and it won 61 percent of its games against other so-called power conferences. Coupled with the fact that it had nine different teams ranked at one point of the season or another, and that there were six teams in the top 26 in the BPI, I would make the case for the Big 12. But it’s a very subjective discussion unless you specifically talk about what criteria you are using.
Seth Greenberg: The best conference is the ACC because it has more teams that can potentially get to the Final Four and win the national title. But it all depends on how you define the conference. The reality is, in college basketball today, it’s Kentucky alone in the first tier. The second tier is only about six to seven schools. Then after that, it’s a very level playing field. That’s the problem when you’re trying to determine the best conference.
I think the deepest conference, without a doubt, is the Big 12. It has seven teams with legitimate chances of making the NCAA tournament. You can look at the number of teams in the Top 25 and can look at its nonconference win percentages. The fact that it plays a round-robin makes it that much more special.
You can even bring the Big Ten into the discussion. Even though Wisconsin has been the dominant team and the bottom of the conference isn’t very good based on sheer numbers, it is going to have teams make the tourney and win games. Purdue has developed and Michigan State has played better as of late.
ACC picks
If not Virginia ...
Greenberg: A lot of people think we’re seeing the changing of the guard because Virginia has been able to win both the regular season and postseason. But I think in this year's ACC tournament, Duke will look to send a message. Justise Winslow is playing at a high level. It has a backcourt that puts a lot of pressure on you and Quinn Cook has brought great maturity and toughness. Jahlil Okafor gives Duke a great low-post player.
Eight players in the rotation is enough. The Blue Devils have flexibility in the final starter whether it’s Matt Jones or Amile Jefferson, but both have given them good minutes. Jefferson defends, is active and does the little things. Jones is capable of coming in and hitting a big 3. Grayson Allen is settling into his role and Marshall Plumlee plays so hard and throws his body around.
Fraschilla: Although Virginia won the league, Duke would be the next logical team that would be a favorite. The Blue Devils are playing their best basketball of the season right now. Their depth hasn’t been an issue since Rasheed Sulaimon left the program, and I don’t see it being a major issue even if they have to play three games in three days.
My dark-horse pick is ...
Fraschilla: My long shot bet to win the tournament would be NC State. They have won five of their last six with victories at home over Syracuse and Virginia Tech and on the road at Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina. We all know the Wolfpack are mercurial, yet capable of a great run.
Greenberg: NC State has a strong backcourt with Anthony “Cat” Barber playing at a high level. He’s explosive, fast and gets to the lane. Ralston Turner and Trevor Lacey make shots and they have four frontcourt players who can screen, rebound, defend and play hard. I think NC State is a really interesting team.
Big 12 picks
If not Kansas ...
Greenberg: I think it’s going to be Iowa State. Jameel McKay gives the Cyclones a lot defensively, runs the floor and gets them easy baskets. They have the toughest matchup in the league in Georges Niang, whose versatility puts so much pressure on the defense. Monte Morris makes good decisions, Naz Long makes good shots and they are skilled and confident. They have to defend consistently over the weekend, but I like Fred Hoiberg’s approach to tournament play -- I think he’ll have his team loose and confident, and they’ll play aggressively.
Fraschilla: Even though Kansas won the league, I’m not sure the Jayhawks come into this tournament as the favorite. They are wounded at the moment. There’s a possibility we don’t see Perry Ellis in the tournament, and I think it’s highly unlikely we see Cliff Alexander. I would anoint Iowa State as the favorite to win the Big 12 on Saturday night. The Cyclones are the most explosive team in college basketball offensively and are coming off back-to-back second halves versus Oklahoma and TCU of 59 and 63 points, respectively.
My dark-horse pick is ...
Fraschilla: A team that could win it all and would not shock anybody who knows the Big 12 is Baylor. The Bears are playing some of their best basketball down the stretch, have a tough, hard-nosed veteran team and play a unique 1-1-3 zone that at times causes a lot of fits for opponents. Rico Gathers deservingly was chosen on the first-team All-Big 12 team, but 6-foot-7 junior Taurean Prince, who was voted the league’s sixth man of the year, is one of the most underrated players in the country.
Greenberg: I’d say Baylor. The Bears' zone is long and active and they have an elite rebounder in Gathers. I like this Bears team because the pieces fit. Guys play to their strengths. They avoid bad shots and rebound the basketball, and the zone is tough to prepare for during a short period of time. Kenny Chery and Lester Medford have done a nice job of making good decisions. This is a team that fits, and I think that’s really important.
Big Ten picks
If not Wisconsin ...
Greenberg: It’s Michigan State. The Spartans have been through a lot this season, but Travis Trice is playing his best basketball of the season, they’ve got a toughness about them and are executing at the end of games. Branden Dawson coming back gives them an elite rebounder. Alvin Ellis had the best game of his career the other night and Marvin Clark has come on as of late. Tom Izzo is also a great tournament coach.
Fraschilla: Obviously everybody expects Wisconsin to win the Big Ten tournament, but if there’s a team to watch out for, needless to say it would be Maryland. The Terps have very good scoring balance, a terrific point guard in Melo Trimble and a monster wing scorer in senior Dez Wells, and they play very good defense under Mark Turgeon.
My dark-horse pick is ...
Fraschilla: Iowa finally seems to have its act together after being on an early-conference roller coaster ride. While the Hawkeyes did not beat one elite team during their current six-game winning streak, they have the experience and depth to play great for three nights. I’ve long been an Aaron White fan, and he’s finishing his senior year on a high note, but the X factor for the Hawkeyes always seems to be Jarrod Uthoff. He’s capable of getting 25 points on anyone in the tournament.
Greenberg: I like Fran’s pick of Iowa but I’ll go Purdue. I just think the Boilermakers' culture is back. The two-headed post has been very effective. They are physical and tough, and they defend and rebound. They get the ball into the paint. Rapheal Davis is a tough leader who competes on both ends and Jon Octeus is a very good on-ball defender. After watching Matt Painter, I really just like the way he handles this team.
Big East picks
If not Villanova ...
Greenberg: I’d say it’s Providence. I’m big on coaches that connect with their teams, and Ed Cooley does that. Kris Dunn has had a terrific season and Cooley has brought along LaDontae Henton from a power forward to an elite scorer. Tyler Harris has embraced his role, Ben Bentil has really had a nice freshman season and Cooley has a calmness about him that his team responds to.
Fraschilla: Villanova has had a sensational season and is deservedly the heavy favorite, but this league has a number of teams that can catch fire over three days. The most likely, to me, are the Butler Bulldogs because they are an outstanding defensive team. They keep opponents off the glass and defend the 3-point shot extremely well.
My dark-horse pick is ...
Fraschilla: I wouldn’t rule out Ed Cooley’s Providence team, which won the Big East a year ago. The Friars have been very inconsistent down the stretch of their season but have the capability of catching fire like they did last year. This is Henton’s swan song, and he’s capable of carrying the Friars through a long tournament run.
Greenberg: Georgetown, because I like the mixture of youth and experience. It'll be hard for Josh Smith to play that many consecutive games over the weekend, but he’s different than anyone else in the league. L.J. Peak is a relentless guard, D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera makes shots, Jabril Trawick is a lockdown defender and this team has a toughness about it. I would not be shocked to see Georgetown win the tournament title.
Pac-12 picks
If not Arizona ...
Greenberg: Utah. This team is mentally and physically tough. Delon Wright is such a difficult matchup. Jakob Poeltl is a good ball-screen defender, and he runs the floor well. The Utes can get stuck defensively, but I look for them to bounce back after a disappointing end of the season.
Fraschilla: While the Utah Utes had a terrific season and almost caught Arizona at the end of the year, they do come limping into the tournament, losing three of their last five. The Wildcats have had an incredible year in the Pac-12 and were clearly the most dominating team, and they play as good a half-court defense as anyone in the country. But I still have confidence that if they get things straightened out, the Utes can win the Pac-12 tournament title.
My dark-horse pick is ...
Fraschilla: My dark-horse team is the Oregon Ducks. They’ve won nine of their last 10 coming into the postseason and have the league’s player of the year in senior Joseph Young. He’s one of the most prolific scorers in the country. Freshman Dillon Brooks, at 6-5, gives coach Dana Altman another go-to scorer and 6-6 wing Elgin Cook punishes people at the rim. He shot almost as many free throws this season as he had field goal attempts.
Greenberg: Stanford is playing for an opportunity to make the NCAA tournament. Anthony Brown and Chasson Randle are more than capable and Stefan Nastic is a big, wide low-post player. This is a team that has not been consistent, but I look for them to play some more zone, be a little bit more deliberate and for Brown and Randle to give them a chance in every game they play.
SEC picks
If not Kentucky ...
Greenberg: Let’s face it: There is no clear "second-best" pick after Kentucky, so to me, all we have left are dark horses. That said, Texas A&M and Ole Miss are playing for their NCAA tournament lives. Right now, they did not finish the season on a high note and both must advance in the SEC tournament to earn an NCAA tournament bid. They have a small margin of error. I think LSU’s win over Arkansas was a huge road win for them. For the SEC to really do something special, either Ole Miss or Texas A&M is going to have to make a deep run to earn a bid in the NCAA tournament.
Fraschilla: Agreed. Everyone besides Kentucky is a dark horse, as the Wildcats come in as one of the dominant teams of the last decade in college basketball. If there are three teams capable of knocking off Kentucky in the SEC tournament, they would be Arkansas, Georgia and LSU. Both LSU and Arkansas have the physical ability and size to contend with Kentucky in a 40-minute contest, while Georgia most recently proved that it can hang with the Wildcats by playing smart, deliberate half-court basketball. If any of those three teams knocks off Kentucky, it would obviously be the major story going into the NCAA tournament.