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Big Ten contenders vs. pretenders

Bo Ryan, Thad Matta and Tom Izzo are preparing their teams for March. Mike McGinnis/Getty Images

Beyond Wisconsin (8-1 in the league), eight teams in the Big Ten standings are separated by just two games. Fran Fraschilla and Seth Greenberg got together this week to discuss the state of the conference. Which programs will make the NCAA tournament, and of those teams, who could make a deep run? Will Tom Izzo once again have Michigan State ready to surprise?

Which Big Ten teams will make the NCAA tournament?

Fran Fraschilla: Right now we’re looking at 10 teams, including Wisconsin, vying for six or seven spots. It’s looking more and more like Ohio State, Maryland and Michigan State are heading in the direction of earning a bid. Indiana certainly has some quality wins. But when you look at Purdue, Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska, those teams are going to be fighting for the remaining couple of spots.

A lot will be determined by who plays whom and when they play. A lot will be determined by what I consider the “extra credit question on the exam,” which is the Big Ten tournament -- a place where you can pick up a couple of extra wins. It’s looking like a typical Big Ten season in terms of the number of teams that will make the NCAA tourney, but there is certainly not the depth of quality teams that we’ve seen in past years.

Seth Greenberg: I see six teams making the tournament. Unless they lose to the bottom third of the league, Wisconsin, Maryland, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State and Indiana are in good shape. I say Indiana because while the Hoosiers do have what some would consider a bad loss (Eastern Washington), they also have a few good out-of-conference wins against the field (Pittsburgh, Butler and SMU). The Big Ten looks a bit like the SEC in that both leagues have an elite team followed by good teams, though the Big Ten might be a little deeper.

The one team that I think is emerging is Ohio State. I think you should buy stock in the Buckeyes. D’Angelo Russell is an elite player. They have a dynamic backcourt with Shannon Scott and Russell. Though Marc Loving didn't travel with the team to Purdue, he is seeing a big basket right now -- when he misses a 3-pointer, you’re shocked. Sam Thompson is an elite athlete, and whether it’s Kam Williams coming off the bench to knock down a jumper or Jae’Sean Tate making hustle plays … if they could get consistent play from Amir Williams, Ohio State could make a very deep run.

Which of those teams are legitimate Final Four contenders?

Fraschilla: Even with the Purdue loss, I’m on the Ohio State bandwagon. I don’t know if the Buckeyes are Final Four-worthy, but their ceiling is high. If you want to take one guy, as Seth pointed out, who could have a Shabazz Napier-like effect on the team, it’s D’Angelo Russell. What he’s accomplished is just incredible, not only with his passing and scoring, but also the type of leader he has been. They’ve pretty much given the ball to him and allowed him to dictate how the team goes. I’m with Seth on the Buckeyes.

I still like Maryland. The Terps have hit a couple of speed bumps, but they also have an excellent point guard in Melo Trimble. Jake Layman is a Chandler Parsons-type, a really versatile scorer. And Dez Wells is a senior who gives them toughness. The young guys on the wings are good, and I like the way Mark Turgeon coaches his team. They’ve certainly had some great moments already this season, even though they’ve lost two of their last four.

I’m buying Maryland as a team that could be sneaky good once they get to the NCAA tournament. Final Four good? I’m doubtful of that. But they have a chance to maybe get to the second weekend.

Greenberg: Wisconsin has almost been the forgotten team since the Duke loss, and when Frank Kaminsky and Traevon Jackson went down and didn’t play against Rutgers. Wisconsin has actually gotten better. Bronson Koenig, with the injury to Jackson, provides another player who can contribute at a very high level. He comes off ball screens to knock down the 3. If you chase him, he’s strong enough to turn the corner. He sees all five defenders.

When you look at this Wisconsin team, they are complete. Yes, they play at a slow pace, but they are one of the most efficient teams in the country. They have versatility in their frontcourt. Nigel Hayes is a tough matchup because of his skill set. Sam Dekker has the size of a power forward and some ability to play at the small forward spot, and when he’s making shots he is really dangerous. Josh Gasser doesn’t make mistakes and is a physical defender. Kaminsky -- though everyone is basically giving Jahlil Okafor the player of the year award -- is having a Wooden Award-type of year. He knocks down 3s, catches it on the block, has great footwork, can drive on you, and sees over the defense.

Wisconsin is poised to return to the Final Four, yet no one is really talking about the Badgers. It’s mind-boggling. It took Duke shooting the lights out to beat them, and they had a hiccup against Rutgers without two of their top players. The Badgers are the real deal and are better than they were last season because Koenig has developed and is playing at a very high level.

Fraschilla: I’m going to play devil’s advocate here. Wisconsin is 8-1, and obviously the loss to Rutgers was an aberration. It wouldn’t have happened if the Badgers were at full strength. But what’s interesting about them is that in conference play, their defense is hovering toward the bottom. They are giving up points at a higher rate than most teams in the league both inside and outside the arc. The other thing about them is that if they allow teams to shoot well, they don’t turn you over because they play such good position defense. They are, by far, the best team in that league offensively and certainly the best team in that league any way you slice it.

But to me there are still areas of concern -- as all teams have. Defensively, I worry about the Badgers because teams in the Big Ten have been very efficient. It’s something that would concern me if I were Bo Ryan, once I hit the Sweet 16 and try to keep advancing.

Greenberg: All teams are works in progress right now, in my opinion. If you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse. They aren’t your father’s Wisconsin -- this team averages 74 points per game. They are better offensively. Now they aren’t as good defensively, but I think their defense is enhanced based on their style of play. Wisconsin is special because it doesn’t put you on the foul line, turn the ball over or give up second shots.

Will Tom Izzo and Michigan State surprise in the tourney?

Greenberg: It’s hard to bet against Tom Izzo in March. He does as good a job of creating a cause as anybody. I think that at times the Spartans get so stuck offensively. If they can’t beat you in their speed game, which is good, especially in the tournament because people aren’t used to them bringing it at you, the big question is when the shot clock is running down. Besides Denzel Valentine, who can make a play? And NCAA tournament games are going to be possession games. That would be my real concern.

Fraschilla: I think the strength of this team, especially when we talk about the Big Ten tournament and the NCAA tournament, is Tom’s preparation. He’s the best in a four-game weekend tournament. I think this is a simple equation: They’ve lost too many good players and haven’t quite replaced them this season as they have in the past.

Michigan State is certainly toward the upper echelon in the Big Ten, but I just don’t see the personnel to do very much damage in the NCAA tournament. Billy Donovan and Jim Boeheim in some ways are going through the same thing. They are all Hall of Fame coaches, but the talent level is lower than it has been. The results have been mixed regardless of whether they are good coaches. It’s just the reality of their rosters.