The deadline for early entries came and went Sunday night, and the official list should be out Tuesday.
Now that we have a firm idea of who is coming back and who’s leaving, let’s take a look at the decisions that made sense -- including a Pac-12 forward who might have been exposed if he’d stayed -- and those moves we don’t exactly love , including a point guard who may have made the wrong decision by coming back to school.
Good decisions, Part I -- Time was right to leave
This was a no-brainer, especially after Dekker showed what NBA folks wanted to see, namely whether he had the mental makeup to take over down the stretch. The 6-foot-9 Dekker has the length and athleticism and showed he could make shots from deep under extreme pressure. Most NBA guys feel Dekker will be taken somewhere in the 10-15 range, so he made the easy call to leave after his junior campaign.
Jones’ stock will never be higher after earning most outstanding player honors following his performance in the Final Four. Sure, he isn’t blessed with tremendous size, quickness or athleticism, but Jones is a pure point guard who has a knack for hitting big shots. He’ll most likely go in the 15-25 range, and his stock wasn’t going to rise much next season -- especially without a post presence (i.e. Jahlil Okafor) to make his job easier.
Cameron Payne, Murray State Racers
Payne may not be a household name because he played in the Ohio Valley Conference and the Racers didn’t make the NCAA tourney, but trust me when I say NBA folks know all about him. Payne is a likely first-rounder, and he made the right move taking advantage of his stock at this time. When you come out of the OVC and can be a first-rounder, you don’t look back.
Bobby Portis, Arkansas Razorbacks
How much more could Portis do after putting up 17.5 points and nearly nine boards per game while making nearly half of a limited number of 3-point attempts? His Razorbacks team also had success, getting to the NCAA tourney for the first time in his career. Portis’ stock was about as high as it was going to go, he’s a lock first-rounder, and maybe even a lottery pick.
The long 6-foot-9 freshman from Milwaukee nearly averaged a double-double and is considered a potential lottery pick. I’m not sure what position he’ll play at the next level, and that’s part of the reason he needed to hit it while he could. Sometimes the more NBA folks see of guys, the more they start to have questions.
Good decisions, Part II -- Another run in order
Yogi Ferrell, Indiana Hoosiers
With his return, the Hoosiers are a clear-cut top-20 team, and maybe even one that can challenge for the Big Ten title next season. Ferrell likely would have gone undrafted, and now he’ll get his degree and have a chance to go deep in the tourney --- which could boost his stock.
Kaleb Tarczewski, Arizona Wildcats
This was a tough one because he’s the lone member of the Wildcats starting unit to return to Tucson, but Tarczewski will get his degree, likely become the all-time winningest player in school history, and should get a chance to expand his offensive game and also his role as a leader. Tarczewski was likely a second-rounder, and the odds are his stock will only improve with another year.
Isaiah Taylor, Texas Longhorns
The speedy sophomore point guard strongly considered leaving after being told he was a fringe first-round pick, but ultimately decided to come back. Taylor had a tough season after suffering a broken wrist in November, and the Longhorns were disappointing as a team. Taylor has a new coach in Shaka Smart, and should thrive in an up-and-down style. His stock should improve.
Jake Layman, Maryland Terrapins
The long and athletic 6-foot-8 forward had a tremendous stretch, especially while Dez Wells was out of the lineup, but was merely solid for the second half of the season. Layman will be part of a team that will have a chance to win the Big Ten, and maybe even go to the Final Four. Layman also will have help down low with the addition of freshman Diamond Stone and transfer Robert Carter (Georgia Tech). He was almost certainly a second-rounder, and could play his way into the first round with a strong campaign.
Caris LeVert, Michigan Wolverines
His stock is about as low as it will go, primarily because he missed the second half of the season with another foot injury. The versatile 6-foot-6 guard needs to come back and show NBA folks he’s 100 percent and can stay that way, and then he’ll be a lock first-rounder and maybe even a lottery pick.
Questionable decisions, Part I -- Should have stayed
The Tigers’ big man isn’t considered a first-rounder, and many NBA guys I’ve spoken to think he’ll wind up going undrafted. He put up good numbers in Baton Rouge, but with the departure of Jarell Martin, Mickey would have been the focus in the post this season -- and also would have benefited from the attention and the passing skills of incoming frosh Ben Simmons.
Trevor Lacey, NC State Wolfpack
I understand he’s older (turns 24 in October) and has been in college four years after transferring from Alabama, but his stock would have surely improved with another year -- and also another year of relevance from NC State. Mark Gottfried’s team was incredibly inconsistent, but Lacey would have been the go-to guy again on a team that had more experience and had a chance to be in the Top 25 all season. I’m not sure he could have gotten into the equation for the first round with another year, but it could have helped his value to NBA clubs.
Dakari Johnson, Kentucky Wildcats
He’s the only Wildcat who I think would have benefited in just about every way from another year. He was a role player for the first two seasons, and didn’t see the ball all that much. However, with the departures of Karl-Anthony Towns, Willie Cauley-Stein and Trey Lyles along the front line, Johnson could have gotten plenty of touches -- especially with pure point guard Tyler Ulis running the show. Johnson may go in the first round, but it was a risk. I think he would have been a lock if he had returned for his junior campaign.
Michael Frazier II, Florida Gators
Frazier had formerly been known as a tremendous shooter, but shot a career-low 38 percent from 3 and missed seven games in SEC play. His Gators also didn’t make the postseason at all, so his stock is about as low as it can go. Florida will be older next season, and USF transfer John Egbunu will be eligible after the big man sat out last year. The Gators may not be a top-10 team, but would have been better with Frazier back.
J.P. Tokoto, North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina’s athletic wing made it clear that he was OK with being drafted in the second round -- or even going undrafted -- and said he felt he would improve more away from Chapel Hill next season. Tokoto can run and jump, and shot a respectable 38 percent from long distance last season. However, the Tar Heels have a chance to go to the Final Four and he could have improved on the defensive end -- which is his ticket to the next level.
Brandon Ashley, Arizona Wildcats
Arizona’s combo forward had it in his mind that he was leaving after his sophomore season -- until a foot injury ended his year early in conference play. Ashley is almost certainly a second-round pick, and could have potentially elevated himself and earned his degree with a strong senior season in which he could have been the leader and go-to offensive player for Sean Miller.
The 6-foot-8 sophomore from Detroit averaged 14.9 points and 9.2 boards this past season, but no one really knew who he was -- because the Miners didn’t win the C-USA regular-season or tournament title. He’s long and athletic, but a lack of a jump shot could cost him a guaranteed contract.
With another year, the talented scoring guard could work his way into a lock first-rounder. He put up 18 points per game and shot 38 percent from 3, but a knee injury cost him the final nine games of the season. Most NBA execs feel he’ll wind up going somewhere in the second round.
Chris McCullough, Syracuse Orange
He’ll probably be drafted somewhere in the first round due to his length and upside, but he did virtually nothing in the games leading up to his season-ending torn ACL in mid-January. McCullough should come back to school to show people he’s healthy and could be productive. Then, he wouldn’t just get drafted in the first round, but would have had a better chance of sticking in the NBA.
Questionable decisions, Part II -- Should have gone
I hate to say that a kid made a bad decision by returning to school, but I feel that it was risky for Dunn -- who would have been a lock first-rounder and maybe even moved his way into the lottery. Remember, he also has gone through a pair of major shoulder surgeries, and Dunn will have an extra burden after the Friars also lost their go-to scorer in LaDontae Henton.