As the speculation draws closer about who will join Kentucky as a No. 1 seed when the NCAA men's tournament bracket is unveiled Sunday evening, it’s never too early to start looking to the future -- and who will be fighting for top seeds in 2016.
It’s not quite so easy with the uncertainty of who is leaving for the NBA draft, and also because eight of the top dozen recruits still haven’t announced their intentions on where they will play.
However, here’s our best stab at who winds up getting the No. 1 seeds, and also who earns Nos. 2-4, a year from now.
No. 1s
It doesn’t matter who stays and leaves anymore. John Calipari just flat-out reloads and has more talent than everyone else. Look for Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns to leave for the NBA draft. Devin Booker, Trey Lyles, Dakari Johnson and the Harrison twins all could join them. But my guess is that a couple of those guys (i.e., Johnson and Andrew and Aaron Harrison) will come back, and stay with Tyler Ulis, Alex Poythress and Marcus Lee.
Calipari has three guys signed for next season in skilled forward Skal Labissiere, point guard Isaiah Briscoe and wing Charles Matthews. And they are in the mix for several remaining uncommitted high-level guys who could be immediate difference-makers. UK as a No. 1 seed shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Tony Bennett could well bring back everyone except for senior Darion Atkins, who was a key piece, but not one that can’t be replaced. There’s also a chance that junior wing Justin Anderson leaves for the NBA draft, but that’s up in the air after his broken finger and then an appendectomy in the second half of the season. If Anderson does return, the Cavaliers will have everyone of note back except for Atkins from a team that has lost just twice this season.
Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill will be fifth-year seniors while Anderson, Mike Tobey and Evan Nolte will be true seniors. London Perrantes will be an upperclassman, and freshmen Marial Shayok, Devon Hall and Isaiah Wilkins all received experience this season. Virginia has been the cream of the crop the past two years, and it might stretch into a third season.
Bill Self won his 11th consecutive Big 12 title this season, and he did it without getting a ton from his heralded freshman class. Kelly Oubre is likely a one-and-done, and Cliff Alexander also could be history after one ho-hum campaign. However, as long as Perry Ellis returns, which is a flip of the coin, the Jayhawks will be better next season.
Ellis and Jamari Traylor will be seniors; Wayne Selden Jr., Frank Mason and Brannen Greene will be juniors; and Devonte Graham and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk have a year under their belts. Hunter Mickelson and Landen Lucas will provide depth up front. The Jayhawks also already have skilled forward Carlton Bragg coming in, but it will be interesting to see his impact, especially if Ellis returns. I would also expect Self and Co. to add another impact freshman or two. The top candidates are big men Stephen Zimmerman, Cheick Diallo and Ivan Rabb, or scorers Malik Newman, Jaylen Brown and Brandon Ingram.
This one probably hinges as much on whether Fred Hoiberg sticks around as coach and doesn’t take an NBA gig as anything. The Cyclones will lose Bryce Dejean-Jones and Dustin Hogue, but will bring back their best player in Georges Niang, one of the nation’s top point guards in Monte Morris and athletic big man Jameel McKay.
Iowa State will also return shooter Naz Long and Abdel Nader and add Oregon State transfer Hallice Cooke and Marquette transfer Deonte Burton. Also, don’t be surprised if Hoiberg and his staff add a fifth-year transfer who is eligible immediately.
No. 2s
The Tar Heels don’t add much, but may not lose anything, either. Marcus Paige should be healthy and will be a senior, and coach Roy Williams should bring back all of his top big men in Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks and Joel James. J.P. Tokoto will be a senior, and guys like Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson and Joel Berry all have a year under their belts. I’m not sure this team can cut down the nets, but the Tar Heels should still be a top-10 team.
The Blue Devils will lose Jahlil Okafor and maybe Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones. My gut says that Jones will return, and then coach Mike Krzyzewski likely will go small with a bunch of quality wings on the team. He’ll bring back Matt Jones and Grayson Allen, and will add a talented, versatile freshman in Luke Kennard. Amile Jefferson will be a senior, but the key will be whether Marshall Plumlee and freshman Chase Jeter can hold it down up front. There’s also a chance that Duke adds uncommitted big man Caleb Swanigan, a strong, physical guy who could help right away.
The Terps will lose Dez Wells, but coach Mark Turgeon will likely have a returning core that includes Melo Trimble and Jake Layman. He’ll also have a quality big man in Robert Carter, who averaged 11.4 points and 8.4 rebounds a year ago at Georgia Tech. Dion Wiley and Jared Nickens likely will see expanded roles, and Michal Cekovsky should see a jump in performance into his sophomore campaign. The Big Ten won’t be overpowering, either, so the Terps have a chance to win the league.
This may depend on whether Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey return, but neither is a lock to go in the first round of the draft. The Tigers will add the top-rated freshman in the country in Aussie Ben Simmons, so the front line could wind up being insane with Simmons, Martin and Mickey. The backcourt will also receive a jolt with the addition of scoring guard Antonio Blakeney, who will push Keith Hornsby. The key, however, will come at the point, where Josh Gray has been inconsistent this season after coming from the junior college ranks.
No. 3s
The ‘Zags will have a tough time replacing the senior backcourt of Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr., but Josh Perkins and Silas Melson are talented and Eric McClellan is a veteran who has produced on the floor at Tulsa and Vandy. The frontcourt is as good as just about any with Przemek Karnowski, Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer, and they also have veteran Kyle Dranginis back.
I know, this one is somewhat surprising. However, Chris McCullough will return healthy and the ‘Cuse could have oft-injured DaJuan Coleman back as well. Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije will be seniors, and Kaleb Joseph should be better after an up-and-down freshman campaign. The Orange also bring back Tyler Roberson and add four top-100 recruits in wing Malachi Richardson, who has size and can really shoot it, combo guard Franklin Howard, big man Moustapha Diagne and shooter Tyler Lydon.
The Wildcats will lose JayVaughn Pinkston and Darrun Hilliard, but will have leader/point guard Ryan Arcidiacono back as well as Daniel Ochefu, Dylan Ennis, Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Phil Booth. ‘Nova will again be the class of the Big East. Coach Jay Wright also adds arguably the best point guard in the country in Jalen Brunson.
Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet are back, which means that the Shockers again will be the team to beat in the Missouri Valley. Coach Gregg Marshall will need to find a big man to replace Darius Carter, but he does add Kansas transfer Connor Frankamp and also top-100 recruit Markis McDuffie.
No. 4s
This one hinges on whether Caris LeVert returns to Ann Arbor. After he suffered a broken bone in his foot, I’m going to take a stab that he comes back for his senior year. With LeVert and Derrick Walton Jr. healthy, and Zak Irvin and Spike Albrecht in the fold as veterans, coach John Beilein should have the Wolverines nationally relevant again. Big men Mark Donnal and Ricky Doyle should be much further along after a year of playing time.
The Wildcats will lose a ton -- likely their entire starting unit -- but coach Sean Miller still will have guys like Dusan Ristic, Gabe York, Elliott Pitts and Parker Jackson-Cartwright, and he also is bringing in a talented freshman class, led by scoring wing Allonzo Trier, Justin Simon and Ray Smith. Arizona may also add big man Ivan Rabb, will have BC transfer Ryan Anderson and scoring guard Kadeem Allen eligible. The ‘Cats will take a dip, but still can compete for the Pac-12 crown.
The Aggies are a fringe tourney team this season, but will return Danuel House, Alex Caruso and Jalen Jones -- all of whom have been in college for at least three years. Coach Billy Kennedy also brings in a talented recruiting class that includes big men Tyler Davis and Elijah Thomas, along with wings D.J. Hogg and Admon Gilder. All four players are ranked in the top 75.
The Cardinals likely will lose Montrezl Harrell, but don’t be shocked if Rick Pitino gets Terry Rozier back. He’s a fringe first-rounder. They also will add talented wing Donovan Mitchell and have Quentin Snider returning. Then the key will be whether the Cards can find a big man to step up. Pitino can coach, so I think he’ll find a way to keep this team among the nation’s top 15 or so.