They are the high-risk, high-reward teams. You know the ones. They scare the daylights out of you in the NCAA tournament because you never quite know what to expect. You wouldn’t be shocked if they lose by double digits in their first game of the tourney, and it wouldn’t surprise you if any of them got through the first weekend and earned a trip to the Sweet 16.
Most of those on the list below (not all) have underachieved as it pertains to their overall talent. Most (not all) will sneak into the field, when they should have coasted.
Many will dismiss their staying power, and some will peg them for a deep run, but when evaluating the teams below, do so with caution.
NC State Wolfpack (18-12, 9-8 ACC)
Current Bracket Standing: No. 9 seed
BPI: 40
KenPom: 41
Good luck trying to figure out the Wolfpack. Not even coach Mark Gottfried has a clue about what this team will do from game to game. NC State has three tremendous wins -- at home against Duke and on the road against North Carolina and Louisville -- that stack up with just about anyone's in the country. That should be enough to get Gottfried & Co. into the NCAA tourney. However, it’s difficult to gloss over the losses. You know the ones -- at home against Clemson, the road setback at Wake and the near-20-point drubbing at the hands of Boston College.
Gottfried can rely on leading scorer Trevor Lacey, who has been in double figures for the past 13 games. But besides Lacey and point guard Anthony "Cat" Barber, there’s little else he can depend on. Ralston Turner can look like the best shooter in the country one day (8-of-17 from 3 and 33 points against Tennessee), but can also shoot the team out of the game (3-of-14 in the loss to BC). The big men are talented, but have been inconsistent for most of the season. This team has the talent to make a run, but could just as easily get blown out in its first game by whoever it gets matched up against.
St. John’s Red Storm (20-9, 9-7 Big East)
Current Bracket Standing: No. 9 seed
BPI: 43
KenPom: 37
Ask any coach in the Big East, and they will tell you -- without hesitation -- that the Red Storm are the most talented team in the league. Yet coach Steve Lavin’s team is just 9-7 in conference play. There are times when D’Angelo Harrison looks like a first-team All-American, and others when the Red Storm’s leading scorer makes poor decisions and looks like he’s on the playground. This is a team that battled Gonzaga and Duke at Madison Square Garden and went on the road and knocked off Syracuse and Providence. It’s also a group that lost six of eight games at one point, including two to DePaul and Creighton.
St. John’s could wind up playing in the 8-seed vs. 9-seed game, and is exactly the kind of team that no No. 1 seed would want to see on the second game of the first weekend. Not with Harrison, Sir'Dominic Pointer, Rysheed Jordan, Phil Greene IV and shot-blocker Chris Obekpa. Those are five high-level talents, and the Red Storm also have no shortage of experience. But this is also a group that could fail to even reach that second game.
LSU Tigers (21-8, 10-6 SEC)
Current Bracket Standing: No. 10 seed
BPI: 34
KenPom: 28
The Tigers have as talented a one-two punch up front as just about any team in the country with Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey. Coach Johnny Jones also has a sophomore guard in Tim Quarterman who recently recorded a triple-double, and a pair of talented guards in Keith Hornsby and Josh Gray. The Tigers won in Morgantown against West Virginia, swept Florida and nearly knocked off top-ranked Kentucky. But they were also swept by Texas A&M, lost at Missouri and Mississippi State and dropped a pair at the Paradise Jam tournament to Old Dominion and Clemson. That’s way too much up and down for my liking.
No one quite knows what to expect out of LSU, but it is undoubtedly scary with Martin and Mickey. Martin is a long, skilled potential lottery pick and Mickey is one of the top rebounders and shot-blockers in the country. The key comes in the backcourt -- where it’s a crapshoot with what Jones can get out of Gray, Hornsby and Quarterman. Guards win in the NCAA tournament -- and the Tigers need their guards to perform.
Stanford Cardinal (18-10, 9-7 Pac-12)
Current Bracket Standing: "Next Four Out"
BPI: 38
KenPom: 39
I’m not even sure that the Cardinal will get in the field, but coach Johnny Dawkins’ group has a chance to make some noise if it does. Remember, this is a team that went to the Sweet 16 (as a No. 10 seed) a year ago and returned its core -- guards Chasson Randle and Anthony Brown and big man Stefan Nastic. Randle is one of the top scoring guards in the country, Brown has length and can shoot it and Nastic is a much-improved frontcourt guy who brings a combination of skill and toughness to the table.
But it’s difficult to feel overly confident about Stanford. It’s a team that lost to DePaul, was swept by UCLA and also came up short at Washington State and Colorado. Sure, there have been some decent wins, but nothing overly impressive. In fact, the best win of the season for the Cardinal came way back on Dec. 23 in Austin against a Texas team that is also fighting for its tourney life.
Arkansas Razorbacks (23-6, 12-4 SEC)
Current Bracket Standing: No. 5 seed
BPI: 20
KenPom: 30
I love Bobby Portis. In fact, I wouldn’t let him get out of the lottery if I were an NBA general manager. But I just don’t quite trust the Razorbacks. They are worthy of their top 25 ranking due to road wins against SMU, Georgia and Ole Miss, along with a home victory over Dayton. However, I just worry about what to expect from this group. They often play without much discipline on both ends of the court.
If their first game is a 5-seed vs. 12-seed, there are a lot of 12s with the ability to make coach Mike Anderson's team a one-and-done. Having said that, the Razorbacks are so difficult to prepare for -- especially in a quick turnaround -- that if they can get past their first game, they could give major problems to a No. 4 seed -- think North Carolina, Northern Iowa, Maryland or Iowa State -- in the round-of-32 game.