Where to find Giant Killers at conference tournaments

Mar 2, 2016, 10:17 AM ET

Welcome back to an event that has become an annual tradition here at GK Central: our preview of conference tournaments. It’s our guide through the mid-majors maze, leading you to the teams best equipped to burst NCAA tournament brackets if they can manage to snag automatic bids.

Here we will examine the 14 conferences whose tournaments start this week, plus the Ivy League (whose regular season ends on March 8). By happy coincidence, we have already dedicated parts of previous posts to analyzing nearly all of the best potential Killers from the remaining conferences. If there are any underdogs left worth dissecting for the first time, we’ll haul them onto the slab next week.

America East

First Place and Top Killer: Stony Brook Seawolves (23-6 overall, 14-2 in conference)

GK Rating: 6.6 (on a scale from zero to 100, indicating the percentage chance of defeating an average Giant)

Key Fact: Allowing 96.1 adjusted points per 100 possessions (ranking 38th nationally)

Our Take: A couple of awful losses to Albany and Vermont have dented Stony Brook’s GK Rating over the past two weeks. But the Seawolves are still well-suited to play the role of a Slow Killer in the NCAA tournament: They operate at the pace of a watch whose batteries are dying, grab boatloads of offensive rebounds and choke off opponents’ inside shooting. It's worth keeping an eye on them to see if they right themselves in their conference tournament and what matchup they draw at the NCAA tournament.

Read more here.

First Place (tie): UNC Wilmington Seahawks (22-7, 14-4)

GK Rating: 9.8

Key Fact: Forcing turnovers on 20.4 percent of opponent possessions

Our Take: The Seahawks split their season series with Hofstra (each team won on the road), tied for the regular season title and posted nearly as strong a GK rating. So it would be only fitting if those two squads eventually meet for the CAA tournament championship. Wilmington knows how to play the possession game, as any good Killer should. In addition to forcing turnovers, the Seahawks hold onto the ball on offense (turnovers on just 16 percent of possessions) and are also an above-average offensive rebounding team (32.1 percent of misses). That last stat is shocking, because the five Seahawks who play at least half the game are all guards. (Dylan Sherwood and C.J. Gettys do give them some size in the middle.) With a fast tempo and a D that loves to pressure the ball, though, all those guards tend to come in handy.

Horizon League

First Place and Top Killer: Valparaiso Crusaders (26-5, 16-2)

GK Rating: 20.6

Key Fact: Allowing 91.4 adjusted points per 100 possessions (ranking 4th)

Our Take: Valpo has lived up to preseason expectations of being one of the top mid-majors in the country, and is an archetypical Slow Killer. Unusual for members of that clan, the Crusaders also hit the defensive boards and shoot well from long range, so if anything, our statistical model underestimates their potential to knock off a Goliath. Come to see Alec Peters hit nearly half his 3s, stay to watch Vashil Fernandez block shots -- and keep your fingers crossed that they make it through their conference tournament.

Ivy League

First Place: Yale Bulldogs (20-6, 11-1)

GK Rating: 9.1

Key Fact: 39.3 percent offensive rebounding rate (ranking 6th)

Our Take: The race for the Ivy League title is coming down to the final weekend (and maybe a one-game playoff to follow), and Yale can taste its first NCAA tourney bid since 1962. The Bulldogs are doing it in a decidedly non-Ivy way: They punish teams on the boards. In addition to their work on the offensive glass, the trio of Justin Sears, Brandon Sherrod and Nick Victor helps hold foes to offensive boards on just 24.5 percent of misses (13th in the NCAA). Add in the nation’s 28th-ranked defense and a plodding pace, and the Bulldogs could be strong underdogs.

Top Killer: Princeton Tigers (20-5, 10-1)

GK Rating: 15.1

Key Fact: 42.2 percent of field goal attempts are 3-pointers (ranking 40th)

Our Take: Princeton, not Yale, is the Ivy’s strongest Killer. And while the Princeton offense might be known for its backdoor cuts, it has always been far more reliant on generating open 3-pointers. This year’s Tigers take 'em and make 'em, to the tune of 38.3 percent long-range shooting. Henry Caruso (15.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG) gives the Tigers a go-to option, and if 6-foot-11 Pete Miller can put forth more efforts like his 20-point, 13-rebound performance in a critical win at Columbia, the Tigers would become an even more serious threat.

MAAC

First Place: Monmouth Hawks (25-6, 17-3)

GK Rating: 5.0

Key Fact: Adjusted 74 possessions per game (ranking 15th)

Our Take: We wrote at length about how Monmouth’s GK credentials don’t match the hype surrounding the program. The Hawks' commitment to such a fast pace remains a problem against better teams, and they continue to allow foes to launch bundles of 3-pointers. To beat a high seed, Monmouth will take a special performance from Justin Robinson. Our eyes say he’s capable. Our model doesn’t agree.

Top Killer: Iona Gaels (19-10, 16-4)

GK Rating: 9.2

Key Fact: 44 percent of field goal attempts are 3-pointers (ranking 23rd)

Our Take: If you want a MAAC team with a decent shot of pulling off a tourney upset, look Iona’s way. Like Monmouth, the Gaels play fast, but they understand that they have to move back and clamp down beyond the arc: Just 36 percent of opponents’ field goals come from 3-point range. And while our model puts no particular stock in star players, Iona’s A.J. English (22.3 PPG, 6.1 APG, 5.1 RPG) can go toe-to-toe with anyone.

Mid-American

First Place and Top Killer: Akron Zips (22-7, 11-5)

GK Rating: 10.2

Key Fact: 50.3 percent of FGA attempts are 3-pointers (ranking 3rd)

Our Take: On Tuesday night, the Zips hit 20 shots from downtown against Ohio to win the regular-season title in the MAC. That’s extreme, but not as much as you might think: They’ve dropped 268 bombs in their past eight games, and for the season, more than half of their shots are 3s. And because they are accurate from long range (shooting 39.7 percent on 3s, ranking 15th) and protect the ball, the Zips have a highly efficient offense, scoring 110.7 points per 100 possessions. They clamp down on opponents’ 3s too, allowing them to shoot just 29.6 percent (ranking 5th). Akron is a classic Perimeter Killer.

Missouri Valley

First Place and Top Killer: Wichita State (23-7, 16-2)

GK Rating: 50.8

Key Fact: Allowing 89.9 adjusted points per 100 possessions, best in the country

Our Take: The Shockers probably won’t get to pick up a slingshot until the second round of the NCAA tournament (a Killer vs. Giant matchup requires an underdog to play an opponent seeded at least five slots higher). If and when they do, our model loves them.

Northeast

First Place and Top Killer: Wagner Seahawks (20-9, 13-5)

GK Rating: 2.2

Key Fact: 37.3 percent offensive rebound rate (ranking 16 th)

Our Take: Not much to see here. The Seahawks’ rebounding is impressive, but it pretty much has to be, considering how often they miss shots (48.2 effective field goal percentage, 243rd in the nation) and turn the ball over (20 percent of possessions, ranking 287th). It’s actually pretty remarkable that they have amassed 20 wins with an offense that poor. Wagner’s defense is better, as it forces turnovers on 21.1 percent of possessions and holds teams to a 46.2 effective field goal percentage. But Wagner is merely the least bad option in a forgettable conference.

Ohio Valley

First Place: Belmont Bruins (20-10, 12-4)

GK Rating: 3.4

Key Fact: 50.1 percent of FGA are 3-pointers (ranking 4th nationally)

Our Take: Rick Byrd’s flocks are longtime favorites of our model, and between inside man Evan Bradds, who leads the country with an effective shooting percentage of 71.3 percent, and Craig Bradshaw, who’s hitting 38.9 percent of his bombs, Belmont can score from anywhere. Unfortunately, there’s nothing else to their game. The Bruins don’t hit the boards or take care of the ball or force turnovers, and they are giving up 108.5 points per 100 possessions (266th in the nation). They're fun, but doomed to take critically fewer shots than opponents.

Top Killer: Morehead State Eagles (18-11, 11-5)

GK Rating: 12.2

Key Fact: 40 percent offensive rebounding rate (ranking 4th)

Our Take: The Eagles are always strong on the offensive glass, but this year’s edition is dominant; senior big man Anthony Elechi is a beast on the boards. And they’re effective at other tactics that help Killers too. Morehead State plays at a crawl, for example (65.6 possessions per game, 322nd in the country), and forces turnovers on 21.8 percent of opponent possessions (ranking 15th). An interesting sleeper.

Patriot League

First Place: Bucknell Bison (17-12, 14-4)

GK Rating: 2.2

Key Fact: 52.5 percent effective field goal percentage (ranking 64th)

Our Take: Another weak conference; the Patriot League doesn’t offer much in the way of Killers this year. Bucknell enters the conference tournament with the top seed and little excitement. At one point this year, the Bison were 3-8, with seven nonconference losses in a row. They shoot the ball pretty well, especially from 2-point range, but don’t generate extra possessions with rebounds or turnovers.

Top Killer: Lehigh Mountain Hawks (15-4, 13-5)

GK Rating: 3.4

Key Fact: Shooting 40 percent on 3-point attempts (ranking 12th)

Our Take: Clocking in at “ever so slightly more dangerous than Bucknell,” Lehigh won its last nine games to close the regular season. That’s fortunate, because it lost its first seven to start the year and at one point was 6-14. The Mountain Hawks are terrific 3-point shooters, yet for some reason only launch 33.6 percent of their shots from deep. So, allow us to send this memo to Austin Price (40 percent on 3s), Jesse Chuku (40.3 percent) and Kyle Leufroy (43.7 percent): Let it fly much, much more. If you get into the tourney, it’s your only chance.

Southern

First Place and Top Killer: Chattanooga Mocs (26-5, 15-3)

GK Rating: 20.9

Key fact: Force turnovers on 20.4 percent of opponent possessions (ranking 55th)

Our Take: The basic take on the Mocs is that they are very good on both the offensive and defensive glass and win the turnover battle at both ends. That’s a rare superfecta, which, in conjunction with their slow tempo, makes them one of the most dangerous Killers in the likely field of 68. But watch out: The way to beat Chattanooga became disturbingly obvious over the past three weeks, when the Mocs lost to Western Carolina and UNC Greensboro by allowing them to shoot a combined 70 percent (48 for 69) on 2-point attempts. That’s hard to believe and could be a radioactive warning sign for the rest of March. Matchups are going to matter a lot for the Mocs from here on out.

Summit

First Place (tie) and Top Killer: South Dakota State Jackrabbits (23-7, 12-4)

GK Rating: 5.3

Key Fact: Scoring 110.4 adjusted points per 100 possessions (ranking 62nd).

Our Take: The Jackrabbits can jump. Led by the trio of George Marshall, Deondre Parks and Mike Daum -- all of whom average at least 14.8 PPG -- they can produce points both inside and outside and do an effective job of chasing down their missed shots (32.5 percent offensive rebound rate). Defense is more of a challenge, but they do hold opponents to offensive rebounds on just 25.7 percent of misses, creating a significant edge on the boards that is just what our GK model desires.

First Place (tie): IPFW Mastodons (23-8, 12-4)

GK Rating: 4.3

Key Fact: 42.7 percent of field goal attempts are 3-pointers (ranking 31st)

Our Take: Ever heard of a shooter’s chance? IUPUI has. Even without leading scorer Mo Evans, whom the Mastodons lost at midseason due to academic issues, they manage to compete because of some fantastic deep heaving. They bomb away without hesitation for a good reason: Their shots find their way into baskets at a tremendous rate (40.9 percent, ranking 8th in the country). And that’s important, because whatever the Mastodons do at the other end shouldn’t be called defense. They force a turnover about as often as the Golden State Warriors lose, allow an effective field goal percentage of 52.8 percent and surrender an adjusted 108.5 points per 100 possessions. But all those glorious 3-pointers allow the Mastodons to hang in against better teams and might let them rumble at least with a Giant in the NCAA tournament.

West Coast

First Place and Top Killer: Saint Mary’s (24-4, 15-3)

GK Rating: 33.6

Key Fact: Effective field goal percentage of 58.9 percent, best in the country

Our Take: So here’s your reward for sticking with Giant Killers through the winter, and through this preview: an underdog you can ride through your bracket. Stocked with freshmen and Australians and still working through scholarship reductions imposed by the NCAA in 2013, the Gaels started this season with low expectations and, even at 24-4, haven’t garnered much national publicity. But they have three players who are shooting better than 40 percent from outside and two more who are monster rebounders. Their uber-deliberate pace keeps them in every game. And they’ve beaten Gonzaga twice. Our model sees them as one of the top 30 teams in the country and a Slow Killer. If they end up with a double-digit seed, you shouldn’t need any more of an invitation to buy low.

Thanks to Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson of Furman University for research assistance.

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