Welcome back to Giant Killers, our annual metrics-based forecast of NCAA tournament upsets. Over the decade since we began hunting for springtime Cinderellas, we have built and refined a statistical model to identify common traits among low seeds that topple top teams in March, as well as characteristics of the Giants that lose those matchups. And this season, we are launching our analysis earlier than ever, simply because there's just so much more data available -- as well as interest from fans and analysts -- than in the days when we began plucking needles from haystacks.
Giant Killers isn't about ranking the best mid-major teams. We are after something a bit different, and more elusive: Teams that are good enough to dominate inferior opponents during the regular season, but also smart or reckless enough to go high-risk/reward against Giants. Typically that means excelling at some combination of boosting the value of shots by shooting lots of 3s and generating extra possessions through offensive rebounds or forced turnovers. (Think Shaka Smart's VCU teams.) With all due respect to Evansville, which is primed to have a good season, you won't see the Purple Aces on this list, because they just don't do many of the things Killers must to upset Giants.
For this first edition of Giant Killers for 2015-16, our methodology is less formal than it will be once we have more data. In addition to 2014-15 stats and records, we looked at returning players, coaching styles and conference changes to come up with 10 teams that could blow up brackets if they make it to the Big Dance. One important note: These candidates do not include any programs from the Atlantic 10. The A-10 is loaded with potential Killers, many with clashing styles and interesting stories, and we plan to analyze them separately.
Head of the class
Last season: 28-6; 13-3, first place in Horizon League
Valpo, coming off a terrific season of 28 wins and a 13-seed in the NCAA tournament, is now one of just three D-1 programs where players who had 100 percent of their team's possession-minutes in 2014-15 returned. The Crusaders are a classic Slow Killer, playing at a grinding pace, choking off opponents inside rather than trying to force steals and hitting the offensive boards. But they're better than the typical member of that Killer clan: Led by the inside/outside play of big man Alec Peters, they can also shoot 3s when they need to, ranking 30th in the country in long-distance shooting percentage at 38.4 percent last year. Giants, beware.
Upcoming test: at Oregon, November 22.
The wild card
Last season: 31-4; 16-2 Missouri Valley Conference
On the heels of a dream season in which the Panthers won 31 games and played Giant in the NCAA tournament, they find themselves in a more familiar position this year as a potential Killer. Gone is MVC Player of the Year Seth Tuttle, along with fixtures Nate Buss, Deon Mitchell and Marvin Singleton. But coach Ben Jacobson still has enough talent to execute his methodical, efficient system: Last season the Panthers ranked 14th in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency while playing the 348th-fastest tempo in the country, six full possessions below the NCAA average of 64.8. Early this season, Jacobson's moves have included increasing the workload for guards Wes Washpun and Jeremy Morgan, and JUCO transfer Aarias Austin has also provided an early spark with five 3-balls in the Panthers' first two games.
Without Tuttle around to clean up the defensive boards, UNI's defensive efficiency could slip, and the Panthers could relinquish a key weapon in their fight against Giants, the ability to win the possession battle. But if 6-foot-9 Bennett Koch matures and 6-foot-6 Paul Jesperson continues to play bigger than his size, UNI will again be a serious threat come tourney time.
Upcoming test: vs. North Carolina, November 21.
Familiar tournament faces
Last season: 25-9; 14-4, second place in Mountain West
The Broncos have been on the doorstep of Killerdom the past few seasons. In two of the past three seasons, in fact, they lost a First Four game in Dayton (including last year's pseudo-home game for the Flyers), preventing them from taking a shot at a high seed. Boise State may finally get its chance this March, but it will come without Derrick Marks, who averaged 15.1 PPG over his four-year career. The good news is that the Broncos have a ready-made replacement: forward Anthony Drmic is back after playing in just seven games last season because of an injured ankle (which granted him an extra season of eligibility). Drmic has averaged 15.3 PPG during his time in Boise.
Even without Marks, the Broncos will attack foes in multiple ways. They protect the ball on offense, shoot tons of 3-pointers and keep opponents off the offensive glass. James Webb III is particularly effective in that final area: His 26.9 percent defensive rebound rate ranked 14th nationally last season. Three more players who started at least 18 games also return, including future rec-league all-star Nick Duncan and his 38.4 percent 3-point stroke.
Upcoming test: at Arizona on Thursday
Last season: 29-5; 17-1, first place in the Southland Conference
Stephen F. Austin (which lost to Northern Iowa 70-60 in Tuesday's early-morning Tip-Off marathon event and is off to a 0-2 start) is a veteran of many a GK blog and Lumberjack pun. Two years ago, of course, the Lumberjacks chopped down VCU in an opening-round upset; this past March, they couldn't quite get past Utah, as SFA was done in by 5-of-26 3-point shooting. A familiar name from both squads is back to pursue another upset: Thomas Walkup. The do-it-all 6-foot-4 wing is now a senior, and all he did a year ago was average 15.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG and 3.7 APG. Walkup thrives in SFA's frenetic style, which emphasizes three critical aspects of Giant-Killing: turnovers (24.5 percent of opponents' possessions in 2014-15, fifth-best in the nation), 3-pointers (37 percent of SFA's field goal attempts) and offensive rebounds (37.6 percent of misses, ranking 14th).
Last season, coach Brad Underwood made a significant change by pushing the pace. After ranking 319th in tempo in 2013-14, the Lumberjacks jumped all the way to 86th last season. Giant Killers tend to be better off slowing the tempo and limiting the number of possessions against a superior foe, so that switch might not be for the best. Underwood also needs to figure out how to replace Jacob Parker, who ranked second behind Walkup in both scoring and rebounding. The team's next five highest scorers return, though, so there are plenty of options for increased usage; keep an eye on sophomore Ty Charles, who is just 2-for-17 from the field to start the season but has the skills on the perimeter to run with Walkup.
Upcoming test: at Arizona State, December 22.
Ready to snag conference championship automatic bids
Last season: 23-9; 12-6, first place in the MAC
Point guard Chris "Game Day" Fowler, the best player in the conference, is back with the Chippewas, and so are half a dozen of his passing targets -- including big man John Simons, who had the best true shooting percentage (71.5) in the entire country in 2014-15. Central Michigan started to catch attention as it improved from 10-21 to 23-9 last season, and once you notice them, you'll keep watching: Working off outstanding spacing and Fowler's ability to drive and dish, the Chippewas launch 3-pointers relentlessly, shooting them on nearly half their attempts. As the Bilastrator has noted, it's not easy to win the 12-team, two-division MAC. But Buffalo, which knocked off CMU in the title game last season, has lost its coach (Bobby Hurley, to Arizona State) and its top player (Justin Moss, to dismissal). It's time for the Flying C to break through.
Upcoming test: at BYU, December 18.
Last season: 26-9; 17-3, first place in the MAAC
After falling to Manhattan in the MAAC championship game last March, the Gaels are baaaack to finish what they started. Coach Tim Cluess' squad doesn't play the same frenetic trapping and pressing style that the Gaels did under his predecessor, Kevin Willard. Instead, they knock off foes with a deadly efficient offense (110.4 points per 100 possessions in 2014-15, ranking 38th in the nation). Point guard A.J. English, the only player in the country to average at least 20 PPG, 5 APG and 5 RPG last season, directs the attack. But without the inside presence of David Laury (graduation), Iona will rely even more heavily on 3-point shooters Schadrac Casimir and Isaiah Wiliams. They averaged a combined 4.65 treys on 43.1 percent shooting a year ago, though they knocked down just a pair of triples in Iona's season-opening loss to Valparaiso last weekend. Iona struggled on the boards with Laury last season, meaning the team has quite a task ahead in trying to establish an inside presence to complement its perimeter firepower. The duo of Aaron Rountree (a transfer from Wake Forest) and Jordan Washington, a 6-foot-8, 255-pound junior college transfer, will attempt to fill that role. Otherwise, Iona will still have a shooter's chance in any game, but no fallback option.
Upcoming test: At Tulsa, December 8.
Ready to step up in their conferences
Last season: 13-15; 5-9, fifth place in Ivy League
It's been a long wait in Morningside Heights, but Columbia finally has a team that can contend for the Ivy League crown. Seven of the Lions' nine leaders in minutes played return from a year ago, including "Chairman" Maodo Lo, a unanimous All-Ivy pick. Just as important, 6-foot-7 senior forward Alex Rosenberg, a first-team All-Ivy pick two years ago, is back after missing all of last season due to a fractured foot.
The Lions do most of their damage from beyond the arc. Last season, 46.1 percent of Columbia's field goal attempts were 3s; Lo took seven a game and hit 43.1 percent of them on the way to scoring 18.4 PPG. Rosenberg only enhances the Lions' ability to strike from distance: He hit 43.2 percent of his 3-point attempts in 2013-14. When defenses close out too hard, Rosenberg knows how to attack. As a junior he ranked eighth in the NCAA in made free throws and set school records for both makes and attempts.
You may recall Columbia's traveling to Rupp Arena last December and giving Kentucky all it could handle: The Lions jumped out to an 11-0 lead and still led with 14 minutes left before the Wildcats pulled away to win, 56-46. This season, Columbia has already thrown a scare into Kansas State, as the Lions trailed by three with 5:45 left on Monday night before losing by 10. Lo shot just 3-for-13 that game, and Columbia was just 5-for-24 from 3-point range. Imagine the damage the Lions could do on a more representative shooting night. If they can win the Ivy League for the first time since 1968, a Giant just might find out the hard way.
Upcoming test: At Northwestern, November 20.
Last season: 20-14; 10-8, fifth in CAA
Hofstra -- an up-tempo pack of sharpshooters who protect the ball and hit the boards surprisingly well given the Pride's extreme lack of size -- ranked 49th in the nation last season with 109.1 points per 100 possessions and is off to a prolific start this season. Two games separated the top five teams in Colonial play in 2014-15, and now the Pride are bringing back more talent than any team in the conference except maybe James Madison, which ranked 246th in the country in generating turnovers last season and was 248th in offensive rebounding percentage. We can't guarantee Hofstra will get by JMU in the CAA, but if it does, the Pride surely will be a better Killer.
Upcoming test: vs. Florida State at the Virgin Islands Paradise Jam, November 20.
Deep sleepers
Last season: 18-14; 10-8, fourth in WCC
For a crew that hardly anybody east of the Pacific Coast Highway was tracking, the Waves came awfully close to breaching the upper ranks of the WCC last season. Pepperdine swept BYU, split with Saint Mary's and came within two points of taking down Gonzaga in Spokane, but the Waves went 0-6 in regular-season games decided by three or fewer points and were hindered by an injury to starting point guard Amadi Udenyi. Now, they return 98 percent of possession minutes to a squad that limited opponents to just 95.4 points per 100 possessions in 2014-15, the 44th-best rate in the country. And the WCC has been good enough in recent years to land a second NCAA bid behind the surefire Zags.
Upcoming test: at UCLA Thursday.
New Jersey Institute of Technology Highlanders
Last season: 21-12; Independent
Ever been to a house party where a guest unexpectedly takes over as DJ? Well, NJIT, formerly the only independent hoops team in the country, is joining the Atlantic Sun this season. We aren't sure why the Highlanders, who play in Newark, didn't work out a deal with, say, the America East. But we do know they should be immediate contenders in their new conference, which was home to just one of the 150 most efficient teams last season (North Florida). The Highlanders' key cog is point guard Damon Lynn, who launched 350 3s last season, the most of any player in D-I, and hit on 126 of them, second in the nation behind Tyler Harvey of Eastern Washington. But NJIT is also returning three other starters who shot a collective 41.4 percent from long distance. As long as this crew keeps bombing away, NJIT will have a chance against anyone, as it proved last season by beating Michigan on the road (and hitting 11-of-17 from distance).
Upcoming test: at Providence, November 23.