There might not be an “I” in “upset,” but there are two “I’s” in “Giant Killer.” And with our little eyes, we spy 10 individuals who are fueling their teams’ chances of knocking off a power team in March. They do it in different ways, and, as you’ll see, for teams displaying various levels of GK potential. But as we enter conference play, it’s time to learn these names. At least a few of them will matter when it comes time to fill out your bracket.
Kahlil Felder, Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Oakland is coming off a pair of games in which it beat Washington in Seattle by 14 points, then took Michigan State to overtime. And that’s because it has Felder. He doesn’t embody a Giant-Killing style as much as he is a Giant talent hidden at a mid-major program. But that’s what happens in recruiting when you’re 5-foot-9. In spite of his size, though, Felder does everything. His per-game season averages -- 26.6 points, 9.3 assists, 4.6 rebounds -- are absurd. He scored a combined 75 points in those aforementioned games. And he has the high-volume 3-point stroke favored by Giant Killers, averaging more than six attempts per game.
Crucially for Felder’s chances to tackle a titan in March, his team does embrace aspects of GK wisdom, particularly offensive rebounding (34.4 percent of missed shots) and a low turnover rate (16.4 percent). If the Grizzlies want to further enhance their upset potential, though, they should embrace the arc to an even greater extent. They make 39 percent of their 3-pointers, but those comprise just 31 percent of their points. If they can navigate the Valpariaso-led Horizon League and earn an NCAA bid, then dial it up from distance, look out.
Davidson has a decent history of prolific scoring guards. To that, welcome Jack Gibbs. The 6-foot junior has popped this season, increasing his scoring average from 16.2 PPG to an obscene 24.6. He does it in true GK style, taking 7.2 3-pointers a game and hitting them at a 38.9 percent rate (actually lower than last year’s 42.5 percent mark). That fits perfectly into a Davidson scheme that has always embraced the long ball. This year, the Wildcats launch 3s on 47 percent of their shots. To be a truly dangerous Giant Killer, Davidson will have to improve its 230th-ranked defense on KenPom.com’s efficiency rankings (an adjusted 104.4 points allowed per 100 possessions). From a Giant-Killing perspective, we’d suggest gambling more to increase the squad’s variance, and Gibbs can help there -- he averages 1.5 steals per game. Regardless, the Jack Attack gives Davidson a shooter’s chance in any game.
Trent Mackey, North Florida Ospreys
A year ago, Mackey came off the bench as a designated sharpshooter for North Florida, often drawing special attention from defenders. Now, he’s starting, surrounded by teammates who love to shoot from long range, and leading a flock of Ospreys in heeding the call of coach Matthew Driscoll: “If you’re open, then just keep letting it fly.” North Florida leads the nation in 3-pointers made (194) and attempted (440), and has scored 47.1 percent of its points on bombs, also tops in the NCAA. And Mackey, who’s shooting a whopping 52.4 percent from downtown, has hit as many treys as 17 entire D-1 rosters. He’s got enough touch to make the Ospreys a scarier version of last year’s squad, which fell in the First Four.
Amidst personnel troubles that left Dayton with just six scholarship athletes in 2014-15, Archie Miller’s squad developed a slow-tempo, turnover-generating style that was effective all the way through the round of 32 in the NCAA tournament without ever having any real post presence. Well, here comes McElvene, a 6-foot-11, 268-pound freshman who had to ride the bench last season after the NCAA ruled him a partial qualifier. Suddenly, Dayton now has a monster down low, and the Flyers’ offensive rebounding percentage has jumped by an astounding 8.9 points since last year. As McElvene has earned more playing time, he has grown more dominant, seizing five offensive boards in 19 minutes against Vanderbilt and blocking four shots in 34 minutes against Miami (OH). And Dayton has gone 9-2 even while two-time All-Giant-Killer team member Dyshawn Pierre has been suspended.
Egidijus Mockevicius, Evansville Purple Aces
Evansville is off to an 11-2 start, but we have some questions about their Giant-Killing abilities. Only five teams shoot 3-pointers less often than Evansville’s 24-percent rate, and the Aces make almost no effort to grab offensive boards (just 27.2 percent of their misses). Actually, that’s not true of all the Aces. Because Mockevicius lives on the boards. The Lithuanian center leads the nation with a 38.6 percent defensive rebound rate and is “only” 34th on the offensive boards at 15 percent. In more familiar terms, he grabs 13.8 rebounds per game in just 29.8 minutes. That’s sick. It’s also a reason why Evansville might be more dangerous than its GK numbers will likely suggest. Because Mockevicius is such a one-man threat on the boards, he is a true Giant-Killing player, able to turn a game on his own. Can you put it past him to grab eight or nine of his teammates’ missed shots against a Giant that’s vulnerable inside? (Maybe someone like Villanova and its 276th-ranked defensive rebounding rate?) No, you can’t. Which is why the Aces are ready to Mock and Roll come March.
Alec Peters, Valparaiso Crusaders
If we don’t end up seeing Felder and his Oakland mates in the tourney, it will likely be the result of Valpo’s defense (No. 3 nationally) and Peters. Though Peters stands at 6-foot-9, he prefers to roam: He makes 2.5 3-pointers per game at a 45.1 percent rate. His rebounding (7.1 per game) helps anchor a D that only allows offensive rebounds on 23.1 percent of opponents’ misses (ninth in the nation). And Valpo also forces turnovers on 21.2 percent of possessions, which ranks 52nd. In other words, if Valpo were a poker player, it would have lots of “outs” against a Giant. And Peters’ ability to drag opposing bigs away from the basket might be the ultimate trump card.
Dane Pineau, Saint Mary's Gaels
An easy choice for this list, here’s the background you may have missed: After slipping to 21-10 last season and returning zero starters, the Gaels have five freshmen on their roster, while still laboring under NCAA probation. But instead of sinking into mediocrity as many pundits expected, they have rebuilt their offense into a machine that generates 113.9 points per 100 possessions, the 19th best rate in the NCAA, and St. Mary’s once again ranks as a mid-major powerhouse. Coach Randy Bennett has kept a pipeline of talent flowing from Australia to McKeon Pavilion. A new batch of Gaels has embraced his formula of high-efficiency shooting at a leaden tempo. And Pineau, a center from Melbourne, makes it all hum. He’s shooting 59 percent from inside, and in his junior year, he has become a titanic rebounder, hauling in 21.3 of his teammates' missed shots, the second-best rate in the country. Saint Mary’s needs extra possessions against Gonzaga and BYU to turn the WCC back into a three-team race, and Pineau is the guy who’s going to get them.
Justin Robinson, Monmouth Hawks
Frankly, we’re not at all sure that Monmouth’s shocking success this autumn will carry into springtime. The Hawks don’t rebound at either end, they play at a fast pace, and they’re heavily reliant on free throws -- all characteristics that usually bode poorly against NCAA tournament Giants. But there’s no question they have been the underdog sensation of the season so far, and Robinson has been in the middle of all the action. At 5-foot-8 and recruited by nobody else except Binghamton, Robinson has shown that he can drive to the rim, shoot from behind the arc and hassle opponents. In six games against top-tier opponents (ranked No. 80 or better in BPI), Robinson has averaged 22.2 points and 2.8 steals, while hitting 50 percent of this 3’s (18-of-36) -- and Monmouth has defeated UCLA, Notre Dame, USC and Georgetown. Keep an eye on the little guy.
Terry Tarpey, William & Mary Tribe
A guy who averages 9.3 ppg for a team that has never reached the NCAA tournament? Absolutely. See, Tarpey does everything else except score -- especially on the defensive end. Tarpey ranks fourth in the nation in steal percentage (5.6 percent of possessions), which equates to 3.1 swipes per game. At 6-foot-, 210 pounds, he somehow grabs 8.3 boards per game. He even blocks 1.4 shots a night. So who cares if he can’t shoot (just 2-of-16 from 3-point range)? Like a mini-version of Andrei Kirilenko, he provides the verve behind a team that already has top-100 wins over NC State and Old Dominion and is a legit threat to win the Colonial title.
For years, our statistical model loved what coach Jeff Neubauer did at Eastern Kentucky, where the Colonels pressed relentlessly, contested every pass, forced gobs of turnovers, passed constantly and shot bushels of 3s. And in bringing that hyperaggressive style to the Bronx, Neubauer and his staff have supercharged Thomas, a standout point guard who endured 66 losses in his first three seasons with the Rams. With Thomas harassing the perimeter and grabbing steals on 4.5 percent of possessions, Fordham ranks fourth in the NCAA in limiting opponents’ long-range shooting (26.1 percent shooting percentage on 3-point attempts) and sixth in forcing turnovers (25.5 percent of opponent possessions) -- both huge turnarounds from 2014-15. The Rams’ schedule has been exceptionally weak so far, but they’re a good bet to double last year’s total of four conference wins, and to play some kind of spoiler role in the Atlantic 10.