OK, we have kept you waiting long enough. Since the start of the year, we have focused our Giant Killers project mostly on power-conference programs, slicing and dicing prominent programs that are vulnerable or resistant to upsets, or that are dropping to double-digit seeds. All the while, we were fine-tuning the cathode ray tubes in our statistical model, readying projections from the deep murk of bracket bottoms. Now it’s show time.
Which smaller-conference teams have the qualities to pull off big upsets? Here are the top Sleeper Killers as of Feb. 8, ranked by their Giant Killer Rating, our estimate (from zero to 100 percent) of their chances to beat an average Giant in the NCAA tournament:
VCU Rams (GK Rating: 58.9): If you assumed that Shaka Smart would be taking VCU’s katra with him to Texas, allow us to make this announcement: Havoc still reigns over downtown Richmond. Will Wade, Smart’s top assistant at VCU from 2009 to 2013, has the Rams playing their signature style, and a host of holdover players are making it click. The Rams are still pressuring the heck out of opponents (turnovers on 23.8 percent of opponent possessions, fifth best in the nation), still pushing the tempo on offense (71.1 possessions per game) and still chasing down offensive boards (34.1 percent of missed shots, 50th nationally). All of which makes them the top-rated potential Giant Killer outside of the traditional power conferences.
VCU has also benefited from Melvin Johnson finally living up to his potential as a senior. The 6-foot-4 guard never quite found a consistent way to contribute in the past, particularly with Treveon Graham serving as the team’s primary perimeter threat. But with Graham gone, that responsibility has shifted to Johnson, and he has responded by averaging 18.7 PPG on 43.7 percent shooting from 3-point range, which is a key reason why VCU is 9-1 and tied for first in the Atlantic 10.
The one way the Rams have run counter to Smart’s strategy is in their approach from beyond the arc this season. Typically, VCU has let it fly from deep, but this year the Rams are launching only 32.7 percent of their field goals from 3-point range, ranking 223rd in the NCAA. That lack of emphasis on deep shooting seems even stranger given that they are hitting 38.4 percent of those shots, 33rd best in the country. It stands to reason, then, that VCU could dial it up from deep more often against a top opponent, making them even more dangerous as a Killer.
Chattanooga Mocs (GK Rating: 23.4): Meet the Mocs, the deep underdog with the best chance to knock off a Giant of any team you haven’t been following yet this season. Under first-year head coach Matt McCall, a Billy Donovan disciple, Chattanooga has ratcheted up its defensive intensity and slows opponents to a crawl at 18.4 seconds per possession, ranking 336th in the NCAA and leading to an overall tempo of 67.2 possessions per game, ranking 269th. As we mentioned when we looked at Wounded Lions, the Mocs are just one of three teams projected by Joe Lunardi to land an 11-seed or lower and be above average in rebounding at both ends of the floor, generating turnovers and protecting the ball. And our statistical model loves Killers with those possession-amassing traits: They lead to piles of points, especially on nights of accurate shooting, which Chattanooga has aplenty (effective field-goal percentage: 53.3 percent, 44th best in the nation).
The Mocs have crushed the Southern Conference, which isn’t quite the damnation with faint praise that it used to be: The SoCon has rebounded from Davidson’s defection and is about as strong as when Steph Curry was around. It also features more 3-point attempts as a percentage of all shots than any conference in the country. And it breeds sharpshooters, like Chattanooga guard Eric Robertson, who is knocking down 45.3 percent of his 3s. So take our advice and get ahead of the competition. Whatever a Moc is, our model recognizes it as threatening to Goliaths.
Valparaiso Crusaders (GK Rating: 21.1): Ladies and gentlemen, meet Valparaiso, the quintessential Slow Killer. Typically for members of this GK family, the Crusaders win with a grinding D, a deliberate offense and strong work on their own backboard. Valpo, in fact, takes that approach to a new level, featuring the nation’s top defense (an adjusted 89.5 points allowed per 100 possessions). The Crusaders even throw in a dose of high-risk, high-reward action, as they grab offensive boards on 35.3 percent of their missed shots.
Yet for all those bona fides -- not to mention a 20-4 record -- the Crusaders clock in with a GK rating that seems somewhat low. Why? Well, they don’t play the possession game quite as aggressively as most Killers. Although they rank above the national average in both 3PA/FGA and defensive turnover percentage, they’re not a top-100 club in either category. The best Giant Killers tend to excel in one of those areas, if not both. Indeed, much of Valpo’s GK rating is not due to the secret GK sauce, but the simple fact that the Crusaders are a really good basketball team. KenPom ranks them 23rd, BPI 34th in the country, and that feels about right. They have a skilled go-to scorer with size in Alec Peters, veteran guards who take care of the ball and something many mid-majors lack: a second big man in Vashil Fernandez. So Valpo will be dangerous in March, just not for all the typical GK reasons.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (GK Rating: 20.9): Trying to lock down its first ticket to Big Dance since 2002, Hawaii is playing on borrowed time: In December, the NCAA slapped a batch of sanctions on the Rainbow Warriors for offenses committed under ex-coach Gib Arnold, including a postseason ban next year. But Eran Ganot, a former assistant at St. Mary’s, inherited a talented squad and has tightened it up on offense and defense. In particular, Hawaii has leaped from 314th in the nation all the way to 27th in defensive rebounding percentage while actually improving its perimeter defense. The Rainbow Warriors, currently pegged by Lunardi as a 14-seed, are a legit top-75 team, stronger than any other 14 -- and better than most projected 13s and 12s.
Even better for our purposes, all the turmoil and a new coach and system haven’t dampened Hawaii’s key Giant-Killing spark: the disruptive play of their guards. The ability to force turnovers is crucial for taking down Giants and, historically, steals are the most important type of turnovers. And after Roderick Bobbitt recorded 100 steals last season, the most in the NCAA, he’s back to his old tricks, filching 3.6 percent of opponent possessions, the 49th-best rate in the country. Quincy Smith (4.0 percent) is an even more outrageous thief, and Isaac Fleming (3.1 percent) isn’t far behind. This is a crew capable of hijacking the rock -- and your bracket -- in March.
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (GK Rating: 19.1): This list is familiar territory for the Lumberjacks, one of our top-rated Killers over the past several seasons. Those previous teams were built on pressure defense, and this year’s squad is no different: The Lumberjacks force turnovers on 25.2 percent of opponents’ possessions, second best in the nation. But something else has changed for Stephen F. Austin, and it doesn’t bode well for March success. The Lumberjacks ranked among the 15 best offensive rebounding teams in the nation during each of the past two seasons. This season, without Jacob Parker, Tanner Clayton and Bobby King, they’ve slipped to 126th.
That’s the primary reason why the Lumberjacks remain a solid but not overwhelming Killer. But they still have Thomas Walkup, their 6-foot-4, do-everything star who has increased his scoring, rebounding, assist and steal numbers in each of his four seasons. This year, he’s up to 17.9 PPG, 6.5 RPG and 4.2 APG, and he just posted 30-plus points in back-to-back wins over Houston Baptist and Northwestern State. If SFA reaches the tourney, Walkup’s most critical role might be that of a facilitator: To compensate for their lack of offensive rebounds, the Lumberjacks likely will need to shoot more 3-pointers against a good opponent. And it will fall on Walkup to find open looks for Clide Geffrard, Demetrious Floyd and Jared Johnson.
Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (GK Rating: 16.1): This is a newcomer to these parts. The Trojans have posted a winning record in just two of the past six seasons, and in each of those years, they finished just two games over .500. But the Trojans have broken through in 2015-16, standing at 21-2. They average just 63.8 possessions per game, 344th in the country, and funnel that energy into their defense, where they allow just an effective shooting percentage of just 43.5 percent (ranking 11th in the nation). What’s fascinating about that defense, though, is that the Trojans still manage to pressure the ball, forcing turnovers on 22.2 percent of possessions (ranking 15th). They just don’t look to run off those mistakes.
That might be an error in judgment, because offense can be a struggle for Little Rock. Outside of point guard Josh Hagins (12.4 PPG, 4.9 APG) and shooting guard Marcus Johnson Jr. (13.2 PPG off the bench), consistency is a problem. No one else averages double figures in points. So you might think they would look to create easy baskets off those turnovers. But controlling the pace is critical to their success, and the Trojans are content to walk it up and bleed the clock. That’s generally a good strategy to use against Giants: As we mention each year, slowing the pace limits the number of individual skirmishes (that is, possessions) in a game, which favors the underdog. And with a 16.1 GK rating, Little Rock will be a viable dog in March.
Stony Brook Seawolves (GK Rating: 12.4) The America East, Northeast and Patriot League, plus assorted A-10 stragglers and Ivies -- how are you supposed to keep track of all the potential Killers crammed into smaller conferences north of Maryland and east of Pittsburgh? Here’s a tip: Focus on Stony Brook. The Seawolves have won their past 16 games, led by senior big man Jameel Warney, who is having a monstrous season (19 PPG, including 36 on 16 for 18 shooting against Hartford on Monday night, and 10.7 RPG). They have beaten Princeton, Hofstra and Columbia to establish themselves as the top mid-major in the Tri-State area. And they have done so by cramming minutes into their starting lineup; everyone at Stony Brook knows you go to The Bench (Bar & Grill) after games, not during.
Like a couple of other teams on this list, Stony Brook is a classic Slow Killer, playing at a shuffleboard pace (ranking 258th in the NCAA), limiting opponents to shooting just 45.1 percent on 2-pointers (ranking 57th), grabbing 34.4 percent of their own missed shots (ranking 46th). They don’t hoist many 3s but are accurate (38.9 percent, ranking 25th) when they do launch bombs. If they finally make it through the America East tournament, where a very similar Stony Brook squad slipped up in 2013, the Seawolves have the statistical profile to torpedo an NCAA Giant.
Thanks to Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson of Furman University for research assistance.