This is a game our statistical model didn't see coming -- but maybe it should have. And that has implications for Mercer's odds to advance into the Sweet 16 when it meets GK darling Tennessee.

Round of 32 upset odds: It's complicated ... see below.

How they beat the Blue Devils: Let's start with the opponent. Duke had trouble getting stops all season, and the Blue Devils were particularly vulnerable to runs when their own 3-pointers weren't falling and they didn't adjust to working the ball inside. Duke's November game against Vermont, where the Blue Devils surrendered 75.6 percent on 2-point attempts and blew an eight-point halftime lead, offered a blueprint for an upstart opponent (though Duke won that game 91-90), and Mercer followed it perfectly. The Bears survived Duke's bombs and second-chance points today by shooting 62.5 percent (20-32) from inside -- they actually made more field goals than Duke while taking 17 fewer shots.

Uncharacteristically, Duke committed 12 turnovers, hardly ever sent Jabari Parker to the hole, and looked increasingly rattled as the Bears grew more excited toward game's end. But Mercer just didn't make many mistakes. They lost the ball only eight times, shot just enough 3s of their own to keep Duke honest, and stayed aggressive to the end. And so they came through as a sharpshooting Killer from the very weak Atlantic Sun conference. But what does it mean going forward?

Can they do it again? Analysts are talking now about the experience of Mercer's five-senior starting unit, and maybe our model underrated that. Probably more important, Mercer, like Harvard, is somewhat different from successful Giant Killers of the past -- and therefore was relatively hard for us to identify -- because they're better than past Killers on defense. Most high-scoring mid-majors that make the tournament are good at either stopping 2s or 3s (or neither); Mercer is in the top 100 teams in the country at both. And of course, the Bears shoot over 50 percent on their own 2s and nearly 40 percent on their own 3s.

As a result, Mercer fits the profile of a classic Killer more snugly that our model originally gave it credit for. And the Bears have a better chance to upend Tennessee than they had to beat Duke. This 11-14 game is not a Giant versus Killer matchup -- which requires a seed differential of at least five -- so our model isn’t built to evaluate it precisely, but its basic power rankings see chances of at least 15 percent that the game will result in another upset. And with UT advancing, there's a 100 percent chance that game will send a heck of a Killer to the Sweet 16.