With a pair of upsets in the books, the Giant Killers team looks ahead to assess the likelihood the Harvard Crimson and Dayton Flyers can advance to the Sweet 16. Is the Syracuse Orange actually a better matchup for Dayton than OSU was? And can the Crimson survive a date with the Michigan State Spartans? Despite Tom Izzo's squad's position on the short list of title favorites, the Giant Killers sees Harvard with a 1-in-4 shot to topple Michigan State.
Why Crimson can keep rolling
Round of 32 upset odds: 24.0 percent
How they beat the Bearcats: We hate to say we told you so, but ... Aw, who are we trying to kid? We told you so! Here at GK Central, we thought the key to the Cincinnati-Harvard matchup would be whether the Ivy Leaguers would recognize the need to take more risks against top-flight competition, change their style and shoot more 3s. Based on our study of their previous games against nonconference opponents, we expected they would, writing, "This could be the week the chameleon turns crimson." And they did: The Crimson took seven of their first 15 shots from downtown, and 38.6 percent for the game (17-of-44) -- way up from their regular-season proportion of 28.2 percent, which ranked just 287th in the country. They hit on 35.3 percent of those shots, and, just as important, because the Bearcats couldn't help off sharpshooter Laurent Rivard, driving lanes opened up for the Crimson.
Can they do it again?: Harvard didn't even play particularly well in this game. The Crimson committed 12 turnovers, grabbed just nine offensive rebounds against a Cincinnati team that doesn't hit the defensive glass and hit only 17 of 28 free throws (60.7 percent). That is one reason they have a stronger chance than you would probably expect against Michigan State, a team many are picking to win the national championship.
Our statistical model recognizes the Spartans' basic strength, but doesn't see them as a particularly strong Giant -- and that evaluation hasn't changed much since they got fully healthy. They can score with anyone, but, unusually for a Tom Izzo squad, they rank just 104th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage (33.5 percent). And they're just slightly above average at stopping 3s (allowing opponents to shoot 33.2 percent from behind the arc, ranking 112th), and below average at forcing turnovers (18.3 percent TO percentage, ranking 173rd). All of that means smart opponents can operate efficiently against Michigan State -- and the Spartans have lost five games since January in which they allowed more than a point per possession.
Add it all up, and our model gives Harvard a 24.0 percent chance of pulling off another upset. Given the Crimson's adaptability, that's probably a low-ball estimate; against MSU, you can expect them to continue shooting 3s, hit the defensive boards and keep things interesting. The chameleon likes the glass slipper.
Dayton's odds improved vs. Syracuse
Round of 32 upset odds: 25.8 percent
How they beat the Buckeyes: Give Dayton credit for making the most of its chances right down to the last ticks of the Flyers' win over Ohio State, but this upset was due primarily to hideous play by the Buckeyes. Ohio State had been weak on the offensive glass all season, but no statistical model could have foreseen them grabbing just three of their own missed shots all game. The Buckeyes clamped down on the perimeter, as expected, but let Dayton get inside again and again, allowing the Flyers to shoot 52.8 percent (19-for-26) on 2-point attempts. And although Ohio State had forced turnovers on 21.9 percent of opponent possessions, the 21st-best rate in the NCAA, the Buckeyes lost the TO battle to the Flyers, often throwing the ball away on unforced errors.
Except for Aaron Craft, it seemed like Ohio State never really woke up, and when you let things stay close enough that anything can happen, well, anything can happen. A horrendous play -- like Shannon Scott's foul of Dyshawn Pierre, while Pierre was behind the 3-point arc and had just six seconds left on the shot clock -- and a great play -- like Vee Sanford's half-floater/half-layup -- were enough to tilt this contest.
Can they do it again?: Here's the thing: Now that the Flyers have squeezed by the Buckeyes, our statistical model says they actually have a better chance to strafe No. 3 Syracuse, with a 25.8 percent chance of an upset.
Ohio State was a powerful 6-seed, and a slightly better team than Syracuse in our basic power rankings, despite the teams' contrasting performances on Thursday. Moreover, Dayton is precisely the kind of underdog that causes problems for Jim Boeheim Giants. The Flyers are a slow-paced squad, the kind we call a Jim Larranaga Killer, that piles up offensive rebounds. The Cuse 2-3 zone is also vulnerable to outside shooting, and while Ohio State can mask any team's proficiency in that category, Dayton shoots 37.5 percent (ranking: 55th in the NCAA) on 3s.
Syracuse is about 8.4 points per 100 possessions better than Dayton, according to our model, but this isn't a good matchup for the Orange. Should you bet the underdog?
They're worth a Flyer.