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Players who have earned a spot on protection lists

With 45 points this season, Wild forward Jason Zucker is making the team's decision on whether to protect him for the expansion draft a difficult one. David Berding/Icon Sportswire

There are two ways to look at each NHL team’s allotment of protected slots heading into the expansion draft for the Vegas Golden Knights. One, it’s a way to protect assets. General managers won’t want to lose valuable players, and the ability to protect seven forwards and three defensemen or eight skaters to go with their goalie allows them to avoid it.

Then there’s the less-thought-of way to look at a protected slot: They are assets in and of themselves.

According to an NHL source, at least one NHL team has approached the league about trading their protected slots, like they might trade a draft pick or prospect.

For example, let’s say the Minnesota Wild fear losing Matt Dumba in the expansion draft. They could, in theory, trade a draft pick or other asset to a team in return for a expansion draft protected slot, allowing them to protect one more player.

That would be the theory.

As interesting as it sounds, it was a theory shot down by the league. There was a possibility that it might get brought up at last week’s GM meetings in Florida, but it never did. This idea, as creative as it was, died on the vine.

The NHL has to protect the integrity of the expansion draft for a lot of reasons, but the most practical is that it will likely be expanding again at some point, and if a new team is paying $500 million to join the league, it doesn’t want a watered-down expansion list to be the result. Surely potential owners in Seattle and Quebec City will be watching closely to see how this process goes.

“They don’t want to rock the boat on getting another $500 million,” one NHL source said on Wednesday.

That teams are looking for the most creative ways to limit the quality of players Vegas GM George McPhee has access to is just a sign of how valuable these protected slots will end up being.

Part of it is because player projection is such an inexact science.

McPhee and his staff have periodically run mock expansion drafts, projecting each team’s protected list, and those continue to evolve. Their most recent mock draft was the week before the trade deadline, and the results looked fairly different from September's.

“They’re different from September because of a number of things. One is we know the teams better. We’re putting together better lists,” McPhee said this week. “Teams have changed in some ways with trades, demotions and promotions. Some players have improved and some have declined. It’s changed a lot from September. It’s changed a little bit less each month.”

One of the areas of focus for the Golden Knights staff is players who might not have been on protected lists in September and analyzing why they’ve played their way onto the lists. Is there a common thread? Is there a different explanation for each one?

To successfully pull this off, Vegas has to grab the players who are exposed in June who would have worked their way onto a protected list with another season.

While McPhee declined to say which players around the league they internally project as having played their way onto protected lists this season, it’s an interesting exercise to examine.

There are a few good candidates:


MatzJason Zucker, F, Minnesota Wild

The Minnesota forward would be just about the perfect player for the Golden Knights to feature on their new team, considering he was raised in Las Vegas. But his big season, one that includes 21 goals and 45 points, makes him a player the Wild can’t afford to lose. GM Chuck Fletcher is going to have his work cut out before the expansion draft to make sure the Wild maximize their protected list.

MatzNick Holden, D, New York Rangers

Watching the Avalanche struggle and Holden thrive with the Rangers, it’s amazing that the Avalanche felt they could move him for a fourth-round pick. Only Ryan McDonagh has averaged more ice time this season in New York than Holden, and his 10 goals equal a career high. This was a fantastic addition by GM Jeff Gorton, and Gorton has to find a way to keep him around.

MatzRyan Hartman, F, Chicago Blackhawks

Because of the no-movement clauses on the Blackhawks' roster, GM Stan Bowman doesn’t have a ton of flexibility, but Hartman has emerged as a player they should look hard at protecting. His biggest value to the Blackhawks might be that he has 20-goal potential and he’s earning less than $1 million next season.

MatzValeri Nichushkin, F, Dallas Stars

He returned to the KHL this season, where he has been productive with CSKA Moscow, putting up 24 points in 36 games. He’s 6-feet-4, 22 years old, and GM Jim Nill mentioned on radio this week that he’s a guy the Stars will likely protect. That becomes a key bit of information when projecting the lists.

MatzViktor Arvidsson, F, Nashville Predators

The 23-year-old Swede is a third-year pro, so he’ll have to be protected. Maybe that was the plan all along in Nashville, but his breakout season this year has absolutely solidified it. He has 24 goals and 50 points in 67 games for the Predators, who continue to draft and develop as well as any organization in the league.

MatzRickard Rakell, F, Anaheim Ducks

Ducks GM Bob Murray is another manager who has his hands full when it comes time to turn in his protected list. He’s loaded with defensemen, so there might be a temptation to go with the eight skaters option. No-movement clauses will require the Ducks to protect Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler, Corey Perry and Kevin Bieksa. The Ducks simply can’t protect Bieksa, so he becomes a trade/buyout candidate. Even then, things are tight. If the Ducks underachieve in the postseason, anything should be on the table, including trading one of their big franchise forwards in order to keep the young players around. Regardless, Rakell and his 29 goals shouldn’t go anywhere.

There are more players like this, with just about every team having a candidate. It makes this process such a fascinating one.

According to an NHL source, the NHL will likely expand the window in which Vegas has to make a decision on their picks from 48 to 72 hours. That window has not been finalized yet, though.

“Historically, teams have had three to five days to prepare. So far, we’re at two. We could use a little bit more time. That’s a lot to do in 48 hours,” McPhee said.

It’s about picking players, but it’s also about shopping the available players on each team’s list to the other 30 teams around the league.

That likely 72-hour window is going to be what shapes this team beyond the players they grab.

“It’s a number of things that are going on,” McPhee said. “Whether it’s trades, whether it’s signing free agents, whether it’s someone on another team sees something on someone else’s list and those turn into trades -- there’s all kinds of different machinations.”

McPhee paused a beat.

“Not to mention, finally picking the team,” he said.

Yeah, there’s that. It may just be the most interesting three-day stretch of the past several years in the NHL.