In this week's Big 12 roundtable, we discuss the ESPN spring Football Power Index rankings for the 2017 season, which came out earlier this week.
FPI gives Oklahoma a 92 percent chance of making the Big 12 title game, followed by TCU (35 percent), Texas (24 percent), Oklahoma State (20 percent), Kansas State (12 percent), Baylor (11 percent), Texas Tech (3 percent), West Virginia (2 percent) and Iowa State and Kansas (both less than 1 percent).
Your first impression of the FPI numbers?
Max Olson: My first thought upon reviewing the FPI data was to go back and see how accurately the 2016 spring FPI data ended up being. The answer: Not too bad. Oklahoma was a heavy favorite (65 percent) and won the league. FPI identified West Virginia as one of the Big 12's four best teams, too. I was shocked by some of these evaluations for 2017, especially projecting a 6-6 year for West Virginia. Some of them look flat-out wrong. But I do have a healthy respect for and fear of our FPI computer overlords.
Mitch Sherman: FPI is overvaluing Oklahoma. A 77-percent chance to win the league? Ninety-two percent to finish in the top two? Look, projections in April for the upcoming season are more accurate than a weather forecast six months in advance, but how much more? A lot can happen -- and always does -- between now and November. The Sooners get respect for their track record and the return of Baker Mayfield, but I’m struggling to accept them as a runaway league favorite.
Jake Trotter: My first impression? FPI was way overvaluing Oklahoma. But for the Sooners not to at least make the Big 12 title game, they would probably have to lose at least three conference games. That has happened just once since 2011. So maybe FPI is on to something with the Sooners. That said, I think FPI is way undervaluing Oklahoma State and Kansas State, whom I believe to be Oklahoma's top challengers for Big 12 supremacy. Also, Texas as a top-25 team? I'm going to have to see it to believe it this time after getting burned by the Longhorns last year.
Who is the most overrated team according to the FPI?
Olson: Not trying to be excessively optimistic, but there are way more underrated Big 12 teams than overrated ones in this spring FPI data. I know the answer here looks easy to spot, but I think the win projections for Texas (7.7) and Baylor (7.3) are actually quite reasonable. But I don't think Texas should be ahead of Oklahoma State and I don't think Baylor is in better shape than K-State.
Sherman: I probably answered this above. I’ll stick with OU. Our pre-spring position rankings calculated the Sooners with the fourth-best unit average in the league, behind TCU, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. This, too, is off-base if trying to determine a preseason favorite. Oklahoma deserves to lead the pack, though not by the margin FPI assigned.
Trotter: Texas. There's nothing to suggest that the Longhorns will have a better chance of making the Big 12 title game over Oklahoma State and Kansas State, two teams that beat Texas last year and who figure to be improved in 2017. Honorable-mention honors to go to Baylor, which, with the coaching change and questions across the board on both sides of the ball, don't have the look of a preseason top-30 team, either.
And the most underrated team in the FPI?
Olson: The answer here is clearly West Virginia, but I'll go in another direction. I don't understand how our FPI formula could project Oklahoma State as the No. 26 team in FBS with a projected 7.7 wins. If the Cowboys had a lot of seniors out the door and a hard reset on offense or defense, I could understand that evaluation. But that's really not the case. If the Cowboys don't go 9-3 or better this fall, I'll be stunned.
Sherman: Since you didn’t go with the Mountaineers, Max, I will. And gladly. FPI projects a season for West Virginia worse than all but one -- when it finished 4-8 in 2013 -- out of the past 15. I just don’t see it. WVU replaced plenty of talent a year ago and competed for a Big 12 title into November. Even if the Mountaineers are not back in serious contention, eight wins is realistic.
Trotter: The poor Mountaineers. Two percent chance of making the Big 12 title game, when they would have been a game away last year, and now have Will Grier at quarterback? West Virginia deserves more respect than that. Oklahoma State is massively underrated as well. As of today, I'm picking the Sooners to win the Big 12. But the Cowboys should open in the top 10 of the preseason polls nationally with the firepower they have coming back on offense.