In this week's Big 12 roundtable, we debate whose NFL draft jump made the most sense and whose was most surprising:
Whose NFL draft choice made the most sense?
Max Olson: Texas RB D'Onta Foreman deciding to go pro was an extremely defensible decision. Rushing for 2,000 yards in a season is such a rare feat that would’ve been incredibly tough to match in 2017. Even the NFL’s best running backs have an expiration date for their careers, so breaking into the league and getting to that second contract as soon as possible is critical. The same can be said for Oklahoma’s Samaje Perine. There’s not much more those two needed to prove in college.
Mitch Sherman: Only Luke Falk of Washington State threw more passes than the 1,164 passes attempted by Patrick Mahomes over the past two seasons. It’s time to take that arm to the next level. Mahomes’ skills translate well to the professional game, but his gunslinger mentality at Texas Tech and the Red Raiders’ offensive system does not. Sure, Mahomes needs more polish before he’s ready to take over an NFL offense, but he’s better served to get paid and minimize his injury risk while working toward that ultimate goal.
Jake Trotter: Perine's decision seemed to be a cinch to me. After becoming Oklahoma's all-time leading rusher, he really had nothing left to prove in college. Nor any way to improve his draft stock. A running back has only so much tread on the tire. And given the risk of injury, Perine had nothing to gain by coming back to school for his senior season.
Whose choice to go pro surprised you?
Olson: I was going to say Kansas State LB Elijah Lee was the one I least expected, but then West Virginia WR Shelton Gibson made his move on Wednesday. Did not see that coming. Gibson can be an excellent big-play threat, but he’s likely a mid-round guy who I’m sure could’ve benefited from another year in Morgantown. But, hey, I could be wrong. I thought Daryl Worley and Wendell Smallwood came out too early a year ago and those guys ended up doing fine in 2016.
Sherman: I’ll go with Lee here, simply because he has not generated much draft buzz and probably lands a day-3 pick, meaning fourth round or later. Lee said after the Wildcats’ bowl victory that he planned to consider an early departure. While it’s almost never a surprise when an all-conference player opts to depart, I figured he would return for what could have been a special senior season at K-State. Conversely, Lee may not have benefited in the draft from another season in college.
Trotter: You have to go with Gibson or Lee. There were whispers that both were considering leaving early, but I really believed in the end both would come back to school. My guess is that at this point the odds are against either being drafted in the first three or four rounds. And I believe both could've improved their stock by coming back for their senior seasons.
Whose choice to stay in school surprised you?
Olson: No big surprise comes to mind, but I’d say Oklahoma getting all of its draft-eligible guys back besides Perine and Joe Mixon was very good news for the program. Sooners CB Jordan Thomas was a guy who had a lot of preseason draft hype, and I’m sure NFL scouts will be keeping an eye on OT Orlando Brown Jr. in 2017. They were smart to come back and keep improving while chasing a Big 12 three-peat.
Sherman: Good for Oklahoma State, but I was a little surprised by the choice of James Washington. That Washington and QB Mason Rudolph announced their decisions simultaneously sheds light on the receiver’s mindset. He knows he’s part of a loaded offense, with the opportunity to finish his career with a bang. But Washington’s physical style, well suited for the NFL, prompted me to believe he might choose to move on.
Trotter: I was a little surprised Thomas returned to Oklahoma. I thought that he might leave. And while I think Rudolph and Washington probably made the prudent decisions, there was always a strong chance that they were going to bolt. Overall, there is a ton of talent exiting the Big 12 this year. The fact Rudolph and Washington bucked that trend to stay could prove to make 2017 a special year in Stillwater.