It's déjà vu from the Governors' Cup.
A thrilling 2025 PBA Philippine Cup quarterfinals has paved the way for familiar contenders to again match up in the playoffs.
TNT Tropang 5G, Barangay Ginebra, and Rain or Shine Elasto Painters have now reached the semifinals in all three conferences of the season -- testament to their consistency and playoff DNA. San Miguel Beermen, meanwhile, returns to the final four for the second time in the last three conferences.
Ginebra and San Miguel are set to renew their perennial duel while TNT and Rain or Shine meet in the semifinals for a third straight conference -- a budding rivalry fueled by contrasting styles, gritty showdowns, and a growing sense of unfinished business.
1. San Miguel Beermen vs 4. Barangay Ginebra
A battle between a great defensive unit and a well-oiled offensive machine, San Miguel and Ginebra are set to collide once again in a showdown of contrasting strengths and deep rosters. For Ginebra, it was their signature defensive grit that carried them past Converge, holding them to just 80 points on 41.8% shooting in a grind-it-out victory. On the other side, San Miguel flexed its offensive depth, overwhelming Meralco with six players scoring in double figures in a dominant quarterfinal performance.
Now, it becomes a question of who can impose their identity better: Can Ginebra's disciplined schemes slow down San Miguel's firepower, or will San Miguel's relentless attack crack Ginebra's defensive wall?
What happened in the eliminations
San Miguel's offense shined better against Ginebra with a 104-93 victory. The two main stars of the team were in the forefront, as CJ Perez and June Mar Fajardo combined for 41 points. Offensive execution became the main problem for Ginebra, which was evidenced by their 30 first half points and being down in an 18-point hole.
X-factor for San Miguel: Don Trollano
Bench production was key in the Beermen's elimination round win over Ginebra. Don Trollano, in particular, offered a scoring jolt that tested Ginebra's defense. He poured in 19 points on a blistering 73.1 TS% that night and he's quietly been one of San Miguel's steadiest contributors throughout the conference.
What's elevated Trollano's game this conference is his ability to attack tilted defenses. He's punishing late closeouts with decisive drives, pulling up comfortably from the elbows, and finishing at a 54.4% clip inside the arc -- fourth best on the team among players with at least 45 attempts. This versatility is critical against a Ginebra defense that will likely load up on Fajardo and dare San Miguel's wings to beat them off the catch.
If Trollano continues to produce, it gives San Miguel flexibility in their lineups -- maybe even the option to go smaller and have him play the four position, which they can afford doing against Ginebra. It matters when trying to avoid the clunky two-big combos with Fajardo and either Brondial or Tautuaa, which Ginebra will likely target with quickness and perimeter movement of their triangle offense.
The bonus: he's thriving under Leo Austria, his former college coach from Adamson, who clearly trusts him with a longer leash. Trollano is averaging a San Miguel career-best 13.7 points per game, and he's playing with the confidence of someone who knows exactly what's expected of him. Whether he can sustain that under the brighter lights of the semifinals might end up being a swing factor if San Miguel wants to outpace Ginebra in this chess match.
X-factor for Ginebra: RJ Abarrientos
Meralco had a clear idea of how to poke holes in San Miguel's half-court defense: Put Fajardo in space and make him defend the pick-and-roll. It's been the one area where San Miguel, despite all its size and offensive firepower, still shows vulnerability. Chris Banchero made the most of that defensive scheme -- attacking Fajardo in drop coverage and erupting for 32 points in their quarterfinal duel. And if there's anyone in Ginebra's camp who can do the same and maybe even more, it's RJ Abarrientos.
Go back to the Governors' Cup semifinals in their closeout Game 6 against this same San Miguel squad. Abarrientos was the difference-maker, dropping 16 points, six assists, and three boards in just 27 minutes. His ability to orchestrate in pick-and-rolls, manipulate help defenders, and knock down shots off the dribble gave Ginebra a needed injection of pace and unpredictability.
The good news for Ginebra is that signs are pointing up that he can replicate and become consistent in the semifinals. Against Converge, the rookie guard delivered a playoff statement: 21 points, five boards, four assists, three steals, and a scorching 65.3 TS%. He was constantly pushing the tempo, initiating early offense, and forcing defenders into quick decisions. Ginebra's triangle offense has long been built around methodical movement and precision reads, but Abarrienots brings controlled chaos -- something that could break open a series against San Miguel's defense.
Still, RJ isn't just a pick-and-roll guy -- he's shooting 3s at a 46.1% clip on 6.3 attempts per game. That's elite volume, and it forces defenders to go over screens, which opens the paint and puts pressure on San Miguel's backline help. If Ginebra wants to keep San Miguel's defense honest and unpredictable, they'll need Abarrientos to be aggressive. Because in a series that will be full of familiar patterns and well-rehearsed sets, Abarrientos might just be Ginebra's wildcard -- someone who can bend the game's structure, and maybe, break it entirely.
Prediction: Ginebra in seven. Trying to contain Fajardo will surely be a tough ask for Ginebra, but they are too disciplined not to be creative guarding him. Expect big blows from both sides and better San Miguel showing compared to their matchup in the Governors' Cup.
7. Rain or Shine Elasto Painters vs 6. TNT Tropang 5G
Maybe the third time's the charm or maybe Rain or Shine is just TNT's kryptonite. For the third straight conference, these contrasting squads meet in the semifinals: Rain or Shine pushing pace in transition, TNT controlling tempo with structure and defense.
Both teams survived win-or-go-home games to get here, relying on stifling defense. TNT held opponents to 83.5 points in their wins and Rain or Shine at 90.5 points. With so much familiarity between them, the series boils down to execution over surprise. The real question is: Which team can defend better against the plays they've already seen a dozen times?
What happened in the eliminations
Rain or Shine was not able to sustain their hot start in the first quarter that led to TNT grabbing a 111-103 victory. They banked on the hot shooting of their trio in RR Pogoy, Calvin Oftana, and JP Erram, which scored 84.7% (94 total points) of the team's output.
X-factor for Rain or Shine: Jhonard Clarito
Even though NLEX didn't have a traditional post presence, Rain or Shine still felt the absence of size in their rotation. Just to put it in perspective, they were outrebounded 43-32 on the offensive glass alone. And yet, it was Clarito who held the fort, averaging a monster 18.5 rebounds in that quarterfinal series. Against a more physically imposing TNT frontline, they'll need every ounce of that effort and even some more from their 6-foot-2 forward who's made a habit of punching above his weight.
Now comes the tougher assignment: banging bodies with Kelly Williams, JP Erram, and Brandon Ganuelas-Rosser. Rain or Shine doesn't have a deep pool of bigs to counter that size. Keith Datu is not known for his defensive prowess, Kris Porter may not be mobile enough, and they've had to steal minutes using Leonard Santillan or Caelan Tiongson at the five.
That forces Clarito, an energy guy by default, into a more vital role -- not just as a rebounder, but as a tone-setter inside. It won't always be pretty, but his motor and timing give Rain or Shine just enough to survive on the boards.
But Clarito's impact can't stop there. With how TNT runs their offense, he'll also be asked to guard on the perimeter, likely drawing assignments on either Pogoy or Oftana depending on matchups. That's no small task as both are three-level scorers, and are on a nice rhythm after their quarterfinals win against Magnolia. Clarito needs to stay disciplined defensively, whether he's switching out or helping from the weak side, because one breakdown is all those two players need to turn the corner and make a wide open jumper.
This is where Clarito becomes more than just a hustle guy. He's Rain or Shine's pressure valve -- someone who can clean up mistakes, extend possessions, and try to neutralize some of the advantages TNT has in length. Clarito's conference averages of 12.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 1.2 steals on 62.4 TS% are definitely exceptional, but he'll need to provide the intangibles and not have this type of production dip. Against a team like TNT, Rain or Shine can't afford to waste any of those margins -- and Clarito can help them win those margins.
X-factor for TNT: Jordan Heading
During the dying moments of their do-or-die win against Magnolia, TNT looked visibly worn down, searching desperately for half-court shot creation. Pogoy bailed them out with clutch self-made buckets and opportunities for his teammates, but the Grand Slam dream felt like it was hanging by a thread. This is where Jordan Heading becomes a necessity now. If TNT wants any sustained offensive flow in the semifinals, especially against a Rain or Shine team that can throw waves of pressure, they need Heading to shoulder some of the creation load.
What makes Heading a fit in TNT's system is his ability to trigger the dribble drive offense not just as a shooter, but as a secondary facilitator. He can lift defenders with his perimeter gravity. He shot 38.8% from 3 in the past conference and knows when to attack closeouts or kick to open teammates. The ball doesn't stick with him, and that quick decision-making is vital when the system bogs down late in the shot clock. If Rain or Shine commits extra attention to Pogoy or Oftana, Heading becomes the release valve.
But all of that hinges on his health. Heading hasn't looked fully explosive since returning from injury, and there's still a visible hesitancy when he's on the floor. Even so, TNT doesn't have the luxury of waiting. With Governors' Cup Finals MVP Jayson Castro and Commissioner's Cup Finals MVP Rey Nambatac both sidelined, they have no choice but to ride with Heading -- ready or not. Pogoy and Oftana can only do so much heavy lifting, especially against a team that can be really physical.
So the question isn't whether TNT wants to use Heading, they have to. If he can offer 20 solid minutes of spacing, ball movement, and occasional shot creation, it will be a boost for TNT's offense. If not, the path towards a Grand Slam will be extremely tough.
Prediction: TNT in six. Size advantage might be tough to overcome for Rain or Shine. But like how we think San Miguel will have a better fight against Ginebra, this feels like Rain or Shine's best chance to trip up TNT.