With nothing much settled in the quarterfinal seedings of the 2025 PBA Philippine Cup, what matters most now is not just form, but form under pressure.
Some squads are surging with momentum like NLEX, San Miguel, Ginebra, and Meralco, others are recalibrating after tough losses like TNT and Rain or Shine. A few are still searching for cohesion at the worst possible time like Magnolia and Converge.
Each has a different path, but only those peaking at the right moment can truly contend for the crown. Here's a look at the performance of the eight playoff teams going into the last week of the elimination round.
1. NLEX Road Warriors (8-2)
NLEX has all but secured a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarterfinals, racking up eight wins in ten games. The team has leaned on a well-balanced offensive attack, with multiple players capable of stepping up on any given night -- an edge that could prove valuable in the high-stakes playoff grind.
That balance was on full display in their come-from-behind win over Magnolia. Down by 19 in the first quarter, NLEX methodically chipped away, getting steady contributions from across the rotation. One standout was Jonnel Policarpio, who made the most of extended minutes by tallying 12 points on a perfect 4-for-4 shooting clip in just 22 minutes -- despite not being a regular fixture in the lineup.
In crunch time, NLEX turned to Robert Bolick, who delivered once again with 25 points, nine rebounds, and five assists on a blistering 78.7 TS%.
They now look to sustain that momentum heading into the playoffs, with a game against already-eliminated NorthPort to wrap up their elimination round.
2. San Miguel Beermen (7-2)
In the Philippine Cup, the road to a championship still runs through June Mar Fajardo and San Miguel. Regardless of their inconsistencies in import-laden conferences, San Miguel has once again asserted themselves among the league's elite in the all-Filipino setting, positioning themselves close to a top four team come the quarterfinals.
Fajardo remains a matchup nightmare, requiring multiple defenders and constant help coverage, which continues to open up scoring opportunities for San Miguel's deep supporting cast.
Against a Rain or Shine team thin in the frontcourt, Fajardo's gravity allowed CJ Perez to attack freely en route to a 33-point performance, while Don Trollano, Marcio Lassiter, and Juami Tiongson capitalized from distance, combining for eight threes on a 50% clip. This blend of interior dominance and perimeter marksmanship creates an inside-out dynamic that few teams are equipped to handle.
San Miguel still has two more games to tighten their grip on a twice-to-beat advantage, facing a hungry Converge squad and a NorthPort team playing out the string.
3. Barangay Ginebra (7-3)
If there's a team hitting its stride at just the right time, it's Ginebra. Riding back-to-back wins against two of the conference's top contenders, are in control as they chase another Philippine Cup title.
The team's latest victory over tormentor TNT was an offensive masterclass. Ginebra exploded in the first half, effectively doubling TNT's output and never looked back. The ball movement was crisp and purposeful, resulting in 28 assists on 37 made field goals.
Japeth Aguilar thrived in the flow -- cleaning up around the rim and finishing plays with authority en route to a dominant 20-point, 14-rebound double-double. Just as significant was the continued rise of RJ Abarrientos, who turned in a highly efficient performance with 23 points, four rebounds, and four assists while posting a sparkling 72.4 TS%.
Ginebra now has a clear shot at securing a twice-to-beat advantage with a win over a tough Rain or Shine team in their final elimination game.
4. TNT Tropang 5G (6-4)
TNT's six-game winning streak may have ended with a lopsided loss to Ginebra, but they remain firmly in the hunt for a twice-to-beat advantage. With the return of Jordan Heading adding another scoring option to the mix, TNT looks to regroup and refocus as they aim to keep their Grand Slam hopes alive.
Last week was a tale of two games. Against Blackwater, TNT put on a perimeter shooting clinic -- knocking down 16 triples at a 45.7% clip. But that same firepower fizzled against Ginebra, where they managed just 20% shooting from deep in the first half, with most of their makes coming in garbage time. Still, there was a silver lining in Heading's debut, as he tallied 10 points, three boards, and three assists in limited minutes -- showing flashes of the offensive lift he can provide down the stretch.
To have a shot at a top-four finish, TNT faces a critical matchup against a struggling, but dangerous, Magnolia side in a game that could have major implications on the quarterfinal seeding.
5. Rain or Shine Elasto Painters (6-4)
Rain or Shine nearly pulled off a dramatic comeback against San Miguel in a game that carried the weight and intensity of a playoff battle. They clawed back from a 25-point deficit in the third quarter, only to fall short in a loss that could ultimately cost them a twice-to-beat edge in the quarterfinals.
Emotions ran high down the stretch as Andrei Caracut and Adrian Nocum led the charge, erupting for 24 and 22 points, respectively, in an inspired second-half rally. But despite their offensive surge, the defensive lapses loomed large. Rain or Shine allowed 30 or more points in each of the first three quarters and surrendered a 50% shooting clip overall -- numbers that won't hold up against elite competition, especially given their high-tempo style of play.
They now face a red-hot Ginebra squad to have a shot for the fourth seed and a crucial quarterfinal advantage hanging in the balance.
6. Meralco Bolts (6-5)
Meralco has turned its attention to making noise in the ongoing BCL Asia. But two weeks ago, the team capped their Philippine Cup elimination campaign on a strong note, hoping to carry that momentum in defense of their title.
Defense has been the anchor of Meralco's recent surge, holding opponents to just 83.3 points per game over their last three wins. Chris Newsome has also found his scoring rhythm, averaging 18.3 points during that stretch. That blend of discipline and shot-making will be crucial moving forward, especially with Meralco likely entering the playoffs at a disadvantage.
It's a waiting game now, whether Meralco advances in BCL Asia, and who they'll draw in the Philippine Cup quarterfinals.
7. Magnolia Hotshots (7-3)
Stripping away the fan narratives and focusing solely on the on-court product, Magnolia's recent back-to-back losses have exposed a dip in the sharpness that once made them a top contender in the Philippine Cup.
Growing pains were expected with the mid-conference addition of William Navarro, as the team tries to integrate him alongside versatile big men Zav Lucero and Ian Sangalang. But beyond chemistry issues, the more pressing concern has been Magnolia's declining offensive output. Over their last two games, the team has averaged just 90 points on 42.7% shooting -- a stark contrast to their earlier form when they ranked third in offensive efficiency (104 PPG) and led the league in true shooting at 61.6%.
Magnolia now faces a crucial showdown with TNT, another team in the hunt for a top-four seed - an outcome that could carry significant implications for playoff positioning.
8. Converge FiberXers (6-4)
With the acquisition of Mikey Williams via trade, the spotlight now shifts to whether the two-time Finals MVP can suit up in time for Converge's potential playoff push in this conference. If he does, despite the team's current offensive woes, they could suddenly become a dangerous dark horse in the quarterfinals.
The team's recent win over Terrafirma was hardly a convincing showcase. Converge trailed for three quarters before erupting for a 29-11 fourth-quarter rally to notch their sixth victory. The overall process remains shaky, and questions persist about head coach Franco Atienza's rotation decisions, which have contributed to the team's inconsistent scoring. Williams' arrival could be the remedy they need - provided he's cleared to play in the Philippine Cup.
Converge's final elimination game looms large as they face powerhouse San Miguel in a potential playoff preview. Both squads will be battling for a coveted top-four spot, adding even more weight to what promises to be a high-stakes clash.