With Phoenix's loss to NLEX on Sunday, the eight teams advancing to the Philippine Cup quarterfinals are now officially locked in. All qualifiers secured at least five wins, while the bottom four teams bowed out with seven or more losses -- mathematically eliminating their chances.
As the battle for playoff positioning heats up, every contender seems capable of making a legitimate run at the title. San Miguel and Ginebra remain loaded with talent, Magnolia and Converge are making moves to boost their odds, Meralco is eyeing a title defense, and TNT is still in the hunt for a historic Grand Slam. To sum it up, this conference feels as open as ever.
Here are five predictions in what promises to be a thrilling playoffs.
RJ Abarrientos will win Ginebra games in the playoffs
Following a grind-it-out loss to Meralco, Ginebra opted for a significant lineup change -- starting RJ Abarrientos in place of Jamie Malonzo. The adjustment was subtle but impactful, injecting much-needed playmaking into a unit that has struggled to create quality looks, especially against the league's elite defenses. The result? A gritty and timely win over league-leading Magnolia.
Abarrientos finished with 10 points and six assists in 36 minutes, shooting decently with a 50.6 TS%. While the numbers weren't eye-popping, his impact was clear particularly in the fourth quarter. He consistently drew extra defenders and made the right reads, helping unlock easier scoring opportunities for Ginebra. The rookie also led the team in plus-minus with a +13, playing a central role in erasing a 10-point deficit down the stretch.
Ginebra's offense has often looked stale against top-tier competition, too reliant on the triangle and the occasional drive from Scottie Thompson. Abarrientos brings a different flavor, one rooted in pace, dribble penetration, and creative shot-making. While he won't shoot lights out every night, his presence alone gives the team a badly needed jolt. If they want to make a serious run in the playoffs, giving Abarrientos consistent minutes might be the shake-up this offense needs.
All SMC teams believe they can make the finals
While Ginebra's potential to go deep into the playoffs has already been discussed, it's equally important to unpack the cases for both San Miguel and Magnolia as serious contenders for a PBA Finals berth.
Magnolia has every reason to believe it can compete with and beat any team in the league, having built confidence from an impressive showing in the elimination round. Currently holding a 7-2 record with two games remaining, they have their top-four destiny in their own hands. The team also strengthened its case recently by acquiring William Navarro, a versatile forward who enhances their lineup flexibility on both ends of the floor
San Miguel is starting to look like its old dominant self, riding a three-game win streak to build momentum -- albeit against weaker opponents. June Mar Fajardo remains the steady anchor in the paint, but it's CJ Perez's resurgence that's fueling their winning. He's averaged 22.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and two steals on a sharp 61.4 TS%. Complementing the starters is Don Trollano, who's quietly become a reliable scoring spark off the bench. With 12.5 points per game on 63.8 TS% in 22.5 minutes, his floor spacing and efficiency gives the team another weapon, easing the burden on their stars and adding depth to their offense.
When it comes to the Philippine Cup, where imports aren't a factor and team chemistry, local depth, and coaching take center stage -- it would be unwise to underestimate how far these SMC squads can go.
NLEX clinches twice-to-beat advantage but remains the most vulnerable among those teams
NLEX's chances of securing a top-four finish are well within reach, currently tied with Magnolia for the top seed. They can even clinch the No. 1 spot with a near-certain win against Terrafirma and a potential showdown with Magnolia to close out their elimination round.
However, the team's collective lack of playoff experience stands out as a potential vulnerability, which lower-seeded squads might look to exploit in a quarterfinal matchup.
That said, NLEX has exceeded expectations by showcasing depth beyond just Robert Bolick's offensive production. Through nine games, at least six players are averaging 7.5 points per outing, reflecting a more balanced and cohesive approach. Xyrus Torres has emerged as arguably the league's most efficient 3-point shooter, hitting 48.9% from long range on five attempts per game. Meanwhile, JB Bahio has been the team's breakout contributor, providing energy and intangibles with averages of 11.1 points, eight rebounds, and 2.9 assists.
The real test lies ahead for NLEX - whether this well-rounded success can hold up under playoff pressure.
Never count Meralco out even as a lower seed
Don't let their seeding fool you - Meralco remains one of the most dangerous teams entering the playoffs. The defending champions have quietly built momentum with a three-game winning streak, finding their rhythm at just the right time.
For those who believe in patterns and postseason magic, the team seems to be tracing the same path that led to their Philippine Cup title last season. This recent surge has been fueled by their calling card: defense. After a rough start to the conference, Meralco has tightened up on that end, allowing just 83.3 points per game during their streak. That stretch includes impressive wins over tough playoff-caliber teams like Ginebra and NLEX.
Offensively, the trio of Chris Newsome, CJ Cansino, and Chris Banchero has carried the load. Newsome leads the way with 18.3 points per game, while Cansino and Banchero have chipped in 14.7 and 14.3 points respectively - showcasing a more balanced and dynamic attack.
In all, Meralco's recent form is a reminder that seeding means little once the quarterfinals begin. With momentum, defense, and a seasoned core, the team is once again built to disrupt expectations as they try to get another Philippine Cup crown.
TNT completes its Grand Slam, once Nambatac returns and Heading is with the team
The recent trade to acquire Jordan Heading is a clear message: TNT is pushing in all their chips to pursue a historic Grand Slam. It's a bold but calculated move by a team that already holds titles from the previous two conferences and is now surging at just the right time. Winners of five straight, TNT is currently the hottest team in the league, and their chemistry and confidence are beginning to peak.
While the move for Heading has made waves, TNT's rise can largely be credited to the stellar form of its core group. Calvin Oftana and RR Pogoy have been lights out from deep during this run, stretching defenses and creating constant mismatches when they post up smaller defenders. They have combined to average 40 points on an impeccable 40.6 TS%.
As the team is already running on all cylinders, TNT's depth will only grow stronger in the coming weeks. Rey Nambatac, who is still recovering from injury, is expected to return come playoff time. Though sidelined, his potential impact off the bench is significant, where he has thrived early in this conference. Known for his shot creation, steady decision-making, and ability to score in bunches, Nambatac can energize the second unit and keep the offense flowing even when the starters rest.
With Heading set to provide a boost as a floor-spacer and versatile guard, and Nambatac nearing a return to action, TNT will have even more weapons at its disposal. They have the experience, chemistry, and star power. With reinforcements arriving just in time, their bid to complete the elusive Grand Slam is no longer just a dream - it's a real possibility.