Like everyone else, I've been having a fair old whinge this year about the great divide between the top and bottom halves of the AFL ladder.
The upside is that with three games remaining (four for Gold Coast), there's just two games between the entire top eight, every team still with a chance of a top four finish. Not that even missing out on that need prove a fatal blow to a team's flag chances, Brisbane last year the perfect example.
All of which is frustrating one group of people in particular. Yep. Us. We of the football media.
Why? Because we like big statements. We like clarity. And we like definitive judgements. Yet nothing about how this 2025 flag race plays out is likely to be much clearer come even Grand Final day than it is now. And what we have now seems to change by the quarter, let alone the game.
Heading into Saturday night's big Collingwood-Brisbane clash, the Pies had led the ladder for 11 weeks and had a chance to go two games clear in the top two with guaranteed home final hosting rights. It was the Pies' opponent, fresh off their biggest reversal of the season, an 11-goal thumping at the hands of the Suns, upon whom the blowtorch was being aimed.
Four quarters later, and Brisbane's 27-point win, its first over Collingwood in five attempts, and it's as though those two roles have been completely reversed, with the Pies now seen to be squarely in the hot seat. And frankly, I reckon that's a little ridiculous.
AFL media has never done nuance particularly well, a trait which has only got worse in the clickbait age. So here's my contribution to the "big call" stakes ... Collingwood could lose all its remaining home-and-away games and still be some sort of flag chance in my view. The reasons are multitude.
For starters, let's get some perspective, please? Yes, the Pies have now lost three of their past four games. But those losses have been by six points (to Gold Coast), one point (to Fremantle) and to the reigning premier in its best performance of the season. Collingwood lost another game to Geelong by three points.
So that's 18 of 20 games either won or lost by six points or fewer. Pretty decent strike rate for a team in trouble, I would have thought.
Where is Collingwood struggling? Defensively, no doubt. Skipper Darcy Moore has been well beaten now by both Fremantle's Patrick Voss and Brisbane's Logan Morris. Would that have been the case had he enjoyed the support of fellow defensive talls Billy Frampton and Jeremy Howe? Unlikely.
Both Howe and Frampton, however, appear likely to be back in action for Thursday night's game against Hawthorn. That will make a considerable difference. Not only to how many scores the Pies concede, but their capacity to break and create attack off half-back which was a huge part of their flag success two years ago.
Next? You'll remember that Collingwood two years ago when it won the premiership also went through a pre-finals bumpy patch, also losing three out of four games by more, and even closer to the finals. They lost superstar Nick Daicos for a spell then as well.
But the champion is up and running this time, Collingwood's best player again on Saturday night, but this season with arguably a more even spread of support coming from midfield teammates like brother Josh and veterans Steele Sidebottom and Scott Pendlebury.
"We're pretty close to being the best defence in the competition still, but we've got work to do."
— AFL (@AFL) August 2, 2025
Craig McRae spoke post-game on how his side will bounce back before Finals.#AFLPiesLions pic.twitter.com/AyOuLF55GT
Statistically, the Pies are still recording better numbers in midfield and defence than they were in 2023 and are about where they were offensively.
The latter, mind you, without the services of Jordan De Goey for all but six games this year, and no Bobby Hill for the last six weeks. That's plenty to do with not only Jamie Elliott's season, but Tim Membrey's steadiness over the past six weeks or so.
But who seriously doubts that De Goey and Hill aren't going to make Collingwood even more potent on the scoreboard and dynamic through midfield?
Now just spitball a worst case scenario for a moment, the Pies losing all three games to Hawthorn, Adelaide and Melbourne. On my ladder predictor workings, that still has them finishing sixth and playing the Hawks again in an elimination final on their MCG home deck.
Win that and it might be off to a potential interstate final on the Gold Coast or in Brisbane or Adelaide. Daunting? Hardly. Collingwood smashed Brisbane at the Gabba earlier this season, lost to the Suns on the road by a kick three weeks ago, and has won its past 10 games no less at Adelaide Oval and 10 all up against the Crows.
And, yes, I'm going there again ... winning premierships from the bottom half of the eight simply isn't as taxing since the (in my opinion) ill-advised pre-finals bye was introduced in 2016. If it still means "doing it the hard way", it sure ain't as hard as it used to be. Ask the Lions.
Okay. Now none of this is suggesting, either, that Collingwood is still about to march away with a second flag in three years.
But it's patently absurd to suggest already the Pies are in trouble. Maybe not even if their losing streak extends to six losses from seven. They're playing finals whatever happens. And are they good enough to win them even after that? Yes. Unequivocally.
And for now, that's really all we can say, despite the desperation of countless written media outlets and lord knows how many content-filling TV shows to say something, anything, more profound.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.