Round 20 of the 2025 AFL season is in the books. So, it's time to react ... or overreact to the biggest talking points of the week.
Does Collingwood superstar Nick Daicos already have the Brownlow medal in the bag? Have the Crows leapt to premiership favouritism after their Showdown thumping of Port Adelaide?
Let's get to this week's overreactions, where we judge a few major takeaways as legitimate or irrational.
Nick Daicos has sewn up the Brownlow Medal
The Collingwood superstar has had another fantastic year, and has now had at least 42 disposals and a goal in his past two games. His dominance in the outing against Richmond last weekend was clear for everyone to see; 42 disposals, three goals in the highest rated game of any player this year, according to Champion Data.
With Gold Coast's Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell splitting votes weekly, and Freo's Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw doing the same, it's prompting some to call the race for the Brownlow medal over with four games to go.
Verdict: Not an overreaction
Okay, set your bookmarks, and come for me on Brownlow night. But let's think about this. In his first year he tallied 11 Brownlow votes. In his second year, an accidental ankle injury probably cost him award as he finished the year just three votes short of winner Lachie Neale despite missing the final two and a half games. In 2024 he would have won in just about any other year, it's just unfortunate Carlton's Patrick Cripps tallied a record 45 votes to win his second 'Charlie'.
It's not crazy to say that if a couple of things had fallen his way in the past two years, Daicos could be a two-time Brownlow Medal winner and a favourite to win a third. Don't scoff, you know it's not a million miles away.
Currently, Daicos leads ESPN's Brownlow Predictor by 3.5 votes ahead of Gold Coast's Noah Anderson and Adelaide's Jordan Dawson. It's similar on AFL.com.au's predictor, and Daicos has an even larger lead on the Wheelo predictor. He's also leading Champion Data's count.
He's a known quantity to the umps. He polls well. He's No. 1 for average disposals, No. 7 for average kicks, No. 3 for inside 50s per game, and No. 7 for average clearances in 2025. He's just always under the umpires' noses.
If he doesn't win the Brownlow from here, it'd be a major shock.
Adelaide is the premiership favourite
Adelaide's 98-point demolition of Port Adelaide in the Showdown was another reminder of just how scary the Crows can be when they click. They sit inside the top two with four rounds to go, own the best percentage in the competition, and statistically, they're dominating across the board -- first for contested possessions, intercepts, groundball gets, contested marks, and intercept marks. There's no doubt they're a serious contender. But are they the favourites?
Verdict: Overreaction
Let's be clear, Adelaide is good enough to win the flag. They've proven that. We know that. But declaring them the premiership favourites with a month to play feels like we're getting carried away, even if it's only slightly.
The Crows are a well-rounded, ruthless side. Their form stacks up, and their record at the MCG isn't bad either -- they've won two of three at the home of footy this season, and some of their recent losses at the venue dating back to 2023 have been by 10, four, four, and two points. They won't fear the 'G, and nor should they, but there's still an undeniable advantage for Victorian-based clubs come September.
If Geelong or Collingwood finish top two, they'll always carry a slight edge. Adelaide's run home isn't too difficult, either, with their two toughest games (Hawthorn and Collingwood) both on home soil. They're well placed for a top-two finish and even the minor premiership, but until we see who ends up with the MCG advantage in September, it's too early to call anyone the clear favourite.
Make no mistake, this Crows side looks built for finals. But the road to the flag still runs through Victoria.