Who are the favourites for the 2025 AFL premiership? Who are the legitimate contenders? And who should already be booking September holidays? Jake Michaels has ranked every club four months into the season.
Note: ESPN's AFL tiers will be a monthly column throughout the 2025 season.
A league of their own
1. COLLINGWOOD
Love them or hate them, the Magpies are in a class of their own right now and are the well deserved flag favourites. Craig McRae's side has lost just once in its last 14 games, sits top of the ladder (by a whopping 10 points), and is ticking most of Champion Data's premiership standards. At this point, it would almost be a shock if they, at the very least, weren't playing in this year's Grand Final. Who said this team was too old?!
Freshly baked croissants
2. BRISBANE
3. GEELONG
4. WESTERN BULLDOGS
How good are freshly baked, buttery, croissants?! They're amazing, even if a bit flakey. The same can be said of the Lions, Cats, and Bulldogs, perhaps the three greatest challengers to the Magpies this season. More often than not these teams are fantastic, but every now and then they let themselves and their fans down. For Brisbane, they failed spectacularly when facing Collingwood in a game billed as a potential Grand Final preview (at the Gabba, no less). Just recently, Geelong was pumped by the Lions on their home deck. And then there's the Western Bulldogs, who routinely beat up on the poorer sides, but have a worrying 1-6 record against the top nine teams.
Perfectly poised
5. HAWTHORN
Have the Hawks been flying high this season? Not really. Is anyone talking about them as even a smokey flag chance at the moment? Again, no. Make no mistake, Sam Mitchell's side is perfectly placed in fifth spot on the ladder, just half a game off second, after a monster 85-point win over the Roos. With significant reinforcements on their way, don't sleep on Hawthorn. After all, they have something the next batch of teams do not...
Grand Final at the 'G concern
6. ADELAIDE
7. FREMANTLE
8. GWS
9. GOLD COAST
The Crows probably deserve to be on a slightly higher tier than the Dockers, Giants, and Suns, but all three of these teams feel somewhat similar. Their best is frightening, their worst is incredibly underwhelming, and they all share the same problem of the Grand Final being played at the MCG. We know how tough it is for non-Victorian teams to win the flag, especially when they're facing a Victorian side in the Grand Final. Believe it or not, it's happened just three times in the last 25 years! Given the Magpies' form in 2025, you get the feeling they're going to be in the Big Dance, so can one of these sides buck the trend and take them down on the road?
No man's land
10. SYDNEY
11. PORT ADELAIDE
12. CARLTON
13. MELBOURNE
14. ST KILDA
15. ESSENDON
The top half of the ladder has broken well clear from the bottom half, not just in terms of premiership points, but overall quality. Mark my words, NONE of these sides are in flag contention, even as the fringiest outsider. Instead, they're all languishing outside the top eight. Some of them are looking to save jobs and reputations, others are in injury hell and desperate for reinforcements. The one thing they all have in common is that they each have at least one eye already on 2026.
Turned the corner, we think
16. NORTH MELBOURNE
Congratulations, Roos, you're finally off the bottom tier. Alastair Clarkson's squad has broken clear from the league's cellar dwellers, showing signs of life in recent weeks that they can be, at the very least, a middling side in 2026. Over the last nine weeks, North Melbourne has won three matches, drawn with the Lions, and lost three games by single-digit margins. Don't get me wrong, their most recent result against the Hawks was bitterly disappointing, but the signs have clearly been there. Look out, Saints and Bombers, they're coming for you!
Stop making us watch
17. RICHMOND
18. WEST COAST
The Tigers and Eagles are the two worst teams in the league. What more do you really need to say? With the 2025 finish line now in sight (sort of), fans of both clubs should be more invested in the upcoming draft than any game day.