You can throw lots of statistics around in football, but ultimately there's none so significant as the match points tab on the AFL ladder. And for the Western Bulldogs right now, that figure is particularly jarring.
The Dogs are on 40 points, with 10 wins and seven losses, a game behind five sides above them all ensconced in the top eight. And a list of whom those victories and defeats have come against is more revealing still.
All 10 wins have been against teams in the lower half of the ladder. Every one of the losses has come at the hands of a top eight side, Greater Western Sydney the only team above them on the ladder the Dogs have actually beaten.
Could you possibly have more definitive evidence not only that a team is where it deserves to be, but that it isn't (this year, anyway) good enough to be a serious premiership contender? Maybe not. Or maybe ...
If there is one ray of light in that damning suite of numbers for the Bulldogs and coach Luke Beveridge, it is the nature of those defeats, not a single one of them by any more than 22 points. Hence the Dogs' tremendous percentage for a team sitting ninth of 129.85, third-best in the competition behind Collingwood and Adelaide.
Against the Pies and Geelong, the Bulldogs were level entering time-on of the final term. Against Brisbane, the Dogs were still 38 points up almost 10 minutes into the third quarter. In Darwin against Gold Coast, they came from almost five goals in arrears to draw within three points with three minutes left.
Such is the fine line between public perception of a side as either a power team or a pretender. And for the Bulldogs now comes another moment of truth; a return clash against reigning premier Brisbane at the Gabba on Friday night. Win this and much of the criticism becomes moot.
It's a terrific challenge for Beveridge to throw his men, and justifies the glass half-full approach the coach has chosen to take in the lead-up to this game. Perhaps, also, his coaching challenge is a little more clearly-defined than a year ago.
Then, the Dogs presented something of a statistical conundrum. In terms of points conceded and scored, they were No.1 in the AFL defensively and No.2 offensively. They were a great territory team, with the best inside 50 and time in forward half differentials. They were No.1 for post-clearance contested possession.
Yet all that statistical dominance wasn't enough to land the Dogs a spot any higher than sixth on the ladder, from where they were bundled straight out of the finals in week one by Hawthorn.
In 2025, however, the weaknesses in the stats reports, like on the ladder, are pretty clearly defined. In short, the Bulldogs are proving very vulnerable defensively. Superficially, that's been the big difference between last year and this.
The Dogs were No.1 for fewest points conceded in 2024. Now, they're ninth, bearing in mind that not one of the last 25 AFL premiership teams have ranked any lower than sixth for defence. Last season, they were fifth for opposition scores per inside 50. That ranking is now 12th.
But while it's easy enough to point the finger at the Bulldogs' defensive structure, where Rory Lobb has had some sizeable bags of goals kicked on him and James O'Donnell has also had his struggles, the figures show the Bulldogs' much-vaunted midfield and forward lines must also carry their share of the blame.
Take the Bulldogs' pressure, for example. Last year, their ranking for restricting opposition scoring chains was the best in the AFL. Now, it's ninth. Their pressure applied ranking was at least passable at seventh. Now, it's 13th.
Last year, the Dogs were seventh on the tackle differential count. Now, they're second last. Tom Liberatore is the only Bulldog player in the AFL's top 25 tacklers.
And the forwards? In 2024, the Bulldogs were the best team in the competition at forcing forward half intercepts. Now, they're a dismal 13th.
Are the Bulldogs' small forwards like Rhylee West and Laitham Vandermeer doing enough grunt work to force turnovers? Do the Dogs' tall forwards like Aaron Naughton and even wunderkind Sam Darcy do enough defensively? Is Cody Weightman's absence proving even more costly than initially thought?
The Dogs are fielding younger line-ups than popularly believed at the moment, also. Whilst their list is the third-oldest in the AFL in 2025, last Saturday's team sat only mid-table in terms of age. That team contained nine players of less than 50 games experience, significantly more than any team higher on the ladder.
And the Bulldogs of 2025 seem far more enthusiastic about their work when ball is in hand than when it's not and there's some defensive running, positioning and tackling to be done. And yet all of that is also fixable, unlike a shortage of talent. Of which not even the Dogs' fiercest critics would dispute they have plenty.
After Friday night's huge test against Brisbane at the Gabba, the Dogs have a handy run to the finish line, with only two more games against top eight teams, and four of those five games at their favoured Marvel Stadium, where they've won 21 of 31 games since the start of 2023.
Knock over the reigning premier on its own turf and everything for the Bulldogs suddenly looks a lot sunnier. How much? Impossible to quantify. But that's at least one assessment you don't need statistics for to work out that if Beveridge and his boys get up, once again for the Bulldogs, it's game on.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.