Who are the favourites for the 2025 AFL premiership? Who are the legitimate contenders? And who should already be booking September holidays? Jake Michaels has ranked every club one month into the new season.
Note: ESPN's AFL tiers will be a monthly column throughout the 2025 season.
The real contenders
1. HAWTHORN
2. BRISBANE
3. GWS
You all called me crazy in pre-season when I declared the Hawks a legitimate premiership threat. Well, here they are, 4-0, top of the ladder, and the literal premiership favourite. You're welcome. The Lions have started slowly in each of their three games to open their flag defence, but they just keep finding ways to win. That's now eight in a row for Chris Fagan's men, who are warming into the season nicely. The Giants could easily be top of the pile if they took advantage of the breeze a touch more in the third term against the Hawks in Launceston. Still, with a huge win over the Magpies, and a win over the Demons, they have done enough to prove they are once again one of a few teams in serious contention.
Is this of substance or just a mirage in the desert?
4. ADELAIDE
5. GOLD COAST
Not even Crows or Suns fans could have predicted such explosive starts to 2025 for their teams. Now granted, they've played a combined five games, but they are a combined 5-0. Adelaide has a percentage of 164 after 10-goal wins against both the Saints and Bombers, and a six-goal win over the Kangaroos. Gold Coast, meanwhile, has a percentage of 230.6, having humiliated the Eagles by 87 points and, most recently, the Demons by 58. The Crows look as if they have the best forward line in the league, while the Suns are making claims to having the best midfield trio. Keep a close eye on both of them over the next month...
Could go on an unbeaten run at any moment
6. COLLINGWOOD
7. GEELONG
8. WESTERN BULLDOGS
9. SYDNEY
10. FREMANTLE
I wouldn't be left stunned if any of these five teams wound up winning the premiership this season. Each of them have either proven they are a legitimate flag chance in recent years or have the list make up we know is good enough to go all the way, but as things stand, all five are faring below their lofty pre-season expectations. The Magpies were belted and made to look lethargic in Opening Round, the Cats have now lost two on the spin (one of which against St Kilda), the Bulldogs have been gallant but ravaged by injury, while the Swans and Dockers, who both admittedly tasted victory in their last start, haven't exactly left us inspired after the first month of football. Now, having said all of that, am I going to be surprised if any one (or two) of them make a leap into the contenders tier by the time I rank every club for May? Absolutely not. But make no mistake, there's plenty of work to be done.
It's hard to get too excited
11. ST KILDA
12. NORTH MELBOURNE
13. ESSENDON
I'm happy for the Saints. They've won two games, one of which being a thriller against Geelong, and sit seventh on the ladder. But do you really believe in them? Do you really think this momentum will carry on throughout the season? Sorry, but I don't. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they lost each of their next six games. Think that's harsh? Go and look at the fixture. The Kangaroos hammered the Demons in their opener, but really how impressive is that win? Alastair Clarkson's side should just be pleased to have separated themselves from the rabble at the bottom of the ladder. As for the Bombers, Thursday evening's win over the Power was a case of 'about time', but much like the Saints, anyone claiming it's the beginning of something grander is quite simply delusional.
Wouldn't want to be their coach
14. PORT ADELAIDE
15. CARLTON
16. MELBOURNE
Ken Hinkley has already been shown the door, albeit that door will open (or close?) at season's end, but could Michael Voss and/or Simon Goodwin be joining him on the coaching scrapheap? The Blues and Demons are both winless in 2025 and look more like bottom four teams than the finalists many had tipped, and expected, in preseason. You can probably throw the Power into that class, too. All three of these teams have major issues, are suffering from a lack of direction, and, as things currently stand, it's hard to see any of them turning things around and being able to make any noise at the pointy end of the year.
Still bad
17. WEST COAST
Winless from three games, a horrid percentage of 57.1, and anchored to the bottom of the ladder, the Eagles just know how to live up to their billing. Aside from the first quarter-and-a-half against the Lions, West Coast has shown little to suggest they have turned a corner from last year ... or the year before. Harley Reid has come under fire, Oscar Allen can't get his hands on the Sherrin, they clearly miss Tom Barrass in the backline, and, if we're being honest, Andrew McQualter doesn't yet appear to have the answers they are desperately searching for.
Still really bad
18. RICHMOND
At the beginning of the season I said the Tigers wouldn't win a game all year. Okay, I was wrong about that, but how many more are you prepared to say they'll win? One? Two? None!? Since upsetting the winless Blues in Round 1, the Tigers have lost by 72 points, then 82 points. There's no doubt in my mind this team will be the 2025 wooden spooner.