Not many AFL metrics are more interesting than Champion Data's expected scores. After all, accuracy fluctuates drastically from week to week, but knowing which teams put themselves in the best position to win is vital information for explaining the story of any game.
Expected scores looks at every shot at goal a team has throughout a game and works out how many points they should have scored from that position, based on historical scoring data.
After every round of the 2025 home and away season, ESPN will be providing the expected scores for each game. Those scores then form the expected scores ladder for the season (to be added once every team has played at least one game).
Round 4
COLLINGWOOD (63) def. CARLTON (46)
Expected score: Magpies 84 def. Blues 53.1
Actual result: Magpies by 17 points
Expected result: Magpies by 30.9 points
GEELONG (85) def. MELBOURNE (46)
Expected score: Cats 96.8 def. Demons 48
Actual result: Cats by 39 points
Expected result: Cats by 48.8 points
GOLD COAST (91) def. ADELAIDE (90)
Expected score: Suns 92.1 def. Crows 80.3
Actual result: Suns by 1 point
Expected result: Suns by 11.8 points
RICHMOND (90) def. by BRISBANE (118)
Expected score: Tigers 82.6 def. by 89.4
Actual result: Lions by 28 points
Expected result: Lions by 6.8 points
NORTH MELBOURNE (52) def. by SYDNEY (117)
Expected score: Kangaroos 54.8 def by 108.1
Actual result: Swans by 65 points
Expected result: Swans by 53.3 points
GWS (132) def. WEST COAST (51)
Expected score: Giants 133.5 def. Eagles 60.8
Actual result: Giants by 81 points
Expected result: Giants by 72.7 points
PORT ADELAIDE (72) def. by ST KILDA (89)
Expected score: Power 85.8 def. Saints 80.6
Actual result: Saints by 17 points
Expected result: Power by 5.2 points
FREMANTLE (97) def. WESTERN BULLDOGS (81)
Expected score: Dockers 86.5 def. 80.2
Actual result: Dockers by 16 points
Expected result: Dockers by 6.3 points
Round 3
ESSENDON (72) def. PORT ADELAIDE (60)
Expected score: Bombers 90 def. Power 72.1
Actual result: Bombers by 12 points
Expected result: Bombers by 17.9 points
CARLTON (75) def. by WESTERN BULLDOGS (83)
Expected result: Blues 66.3 def. by Bulldogs 73.1
Actual result: Bulldogs by 8 points
Expected result: Bulldogs by 6.8 points
MELBOURNE (62) def. by GOLD COAST (120)
Expected result: Demons 72.7 def. by Suns 115.5
Actual result: Suns by 58 points
Expected result: Suns by 42.8 points
ST KILDA (135) def. RICHMOND (53)
Expected result: Saints 123 def. Tigers 59.3
Actual result: Saints by 82 points
Expected result: Saints by 63.7 points
HAWTHORN (76) def. GWS (64)
Expected result: Hawks 98.7 def. Giants 75.1
Actual result: Hawks by 12 points
Expected result: Hawks by 23.6 points
BRISBANE (70) def. GEELONG (61)
Expected result: Lions 84 def. Cats 52
Actual result: Lions by 9 points
Expected result: Lions by 32 points
ADELAIDE (114) def. NORTH MELBOURNE (78)
Expected result: Crows 102.9 def. Kangaroos 64.4
Actual result: Crows by 36 points
Expected result: Crows by 38.5 points
WEST COAST (68) def. by FREMANTLE (106)
Expected result: Eagles 66 def. by Dockers 126.6
Actual result: Dockers by 38 points
Expected result: Dockers by 60.6 points
Round 2
CARLTON (60) def. by HAWTHORN (80)
Expected score: Blues 74 def. Hawks 68.4
Actual result: Hawks by 20 points
Expected result: Blues by 5.6 points
WESTERN BULLDOGS (70) def. by COLLINGWOOD (76)
Expected score: Bulldogs 62 def. by Magpies 97.8
Actual result: Magpies by 6 points
Expected result: Magpies by 35.8 points
ESSENDON (100) def. by ADELAIDE (161)
Expected score: Bombers 86.3 def. by Crows 121.5
Actual result: Crows by 61 points
Expected result: Crows by 35.2 points
PORT ADELAIDE (140) def. RICHMOND (68)
Expected score: Power 113.8 def. Tigers 74.5
Actual result: Power by 72 points
Expected result: Power by 39.3 points
ST KILDA (98) def. GEELONG (91)
Expected score: Saints 92.8 def. Cats 97.3
Actual result: Saints by 7 points
Expected result: Cats by 4.5 points
BRISBANE (94) def. WEST COAST (75)
Expected score: Lions 88.4 def. Eagles 61.8
Actual result: Lions by 19 points
Expected result: Lions by 26.6 points
NORTH MELBOURNE (125) def. MELBOURNE (66)
Expected score: Roos 110.8 def. Demons 81.8
Actual result: Roos by 59 points
Expected result: Roos by 29 points
FREMANTLE (65) def. by SYDNEY (68)
Expected score: Dockers 84.2 def. Swans 81.8
Actual result: Swans by 3 points
Expected result: Dockers by 2.4 points
Round 1
RICHMOND (82) def. CARLTON (69)
Expected score: Tigers 66.1 def. by Blues 79.2
Actual result: Tigers by 13 points
Expected result: Blues by 13.1 points
HAWTHORN (111) def. ESSENDON (85)
Expected score: Hawks 94.8 def. Bombers 81.1
Actual result: Hawks by 26 points
Expected result: Hawks by 13.7 points
GEELONG (147) def. FREMANTLE (69)
Expected score: Cats 128.1 def. Dockers 75.6
Actual result: Cats by 78 points
Expected result: Cats by 52.5 points
SYDNEY (82) def. by BRISBANE (86)
Expected score: Swans 90 def. Lions 87.7
Actual result: Lions by 4 points
Expected result: swans by 2.3 points
WESTERN BULLDOGS (113) def. NORTH MELBOURNE (97)
Expected score: Bulldogs 101.5 def. Roos 93.5
Actual result: Bulldogs by 16 points
Expected result: Bulldogs by 8 points
COLLINGWOOD (136) def. PORT ADELAIDE (45)
Expected score: Magpies 115.4 def. Power 67.9
Actual result: Magpies by 91 points
Expected result: Magpies by 47.5 points
ADELAIDE (135) def. ST KILDA (72)
Expected score: Crows 118.9 def. Saints 75.1
Actual result: Crows by 63 points
Expected result: Crows by 43.8 points
MELBOURNE (74) def. by GWS (77)
Expected score: Demons 87.8 def. Giants 75.4
Actual result: Giants by 3 points
Expected result: Demons by 12.4 points
WEST COAST (49) def. by GOLD COAST (136)
Expected score: Suns 127.4 def. Eagles 47.8
Actual result: Suns by 87 points
Expected result: Suns by 79.6 points
Opening Round
SYDNEY (76) def. by HAWTHORN (96)
Expected score: Swans 66.8 def. by Hawks 101.5
Actual result: Hawks by 20 points
Expected result: Hawks by 34.7 points
GWS (104) def. COLLINGWOOD (52)
Expected score: Giants 95.8 vs. Magpies 80.5
Actual result: Giants by 52 points
Expected result: Giants by 15.3 points