Not many AFL metrics are more interesting than Champion Data's expected scores. After all, accuracy fluctuates drastically from week to week, but knowing which teams put themselves in the best position to win is vital information for explaining the story of any game.
Expected scores looks at every shot at goal a team has throughout a game and works out how many points they should have scored from that position, based on historical scoring data.
After every round of the 2025 home and away season, ESPN will be providing the expected scores for each game. Those scores then form the expected scores ladder for the season (to be added once every team has played at least one game).
Opening Round
SYDNEY (76) def. by HAWTHORN (96)
Expected score: Swans 66.8 def. by Hawks 101.5
Result: Hawks by 20 points
Expected result: Hawks by 34.7 points
GWS (104) def. COLLINGWOOD (52)
Expected score: Giants 95.8 vs. Magpies 80.5
Result: Giants by 52 points
Expected result: Giants by 15.3 points