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          The Six Points: Nick Daicos' ceiling is GOAT; the mistake that has cost the Dees a dynasty

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          • Jake Michaels, Senior WriterJun 4, 2024, 06:20 PM ET
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              Jake Michaels is a Melbourne-based sports writer. He has been with ESPN since 2013, covering everything from AFL to Formula One, basketball to boxing, and tennis, both in Australia and around the world.
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          Each week of the 2024 AFL season, ESPN.com.au's Jake Michaels looks at six talking points.

          This week's Six Points features a huge claim about Nick Daicos, the major mistake that has cost the Demons a dynasty, why I loved the Harley Reid suspension, and some sympathy for the Magpie faithful.

          1. Nick Daicos' ceiling has to be greatest midfielder of all time

          You may laugh at this and scream hyperbole, but if you take a deep breath, calm yourself down, and think about it for just a moment, you know it's not that crazy.

          Let me ask you this; has any midfielder enjoyed a better start to a career than Daicos? Probably not (I'll get to that in a second), which means if nobody has been better than him through 59 games, then it simply cannot be outrageous in the slightest to suggest his resume could stand head and shoulders above the rest when it's all said and done.

          To this point of a career, no player has ever won more ball than Daicos, while only one player had amassed more uncontested possessions. He also has the most Ranking Points ever recorded through 59 appearances. And if not for the knee injury he suffered against the Hawks late last year, Daicos almost certainly would have a Brownlow Medal to pair with his premiership medallion.

          FACT: Daicos is the only player in recorded history to have 1,500 disposals, 500 contested possessions, 300 score involvements, 200 inside 50s, 200 clearances, and 30 goals in their first 59 games.

          Daicos' star has only risen to new heights over the last five weeks, a stretch that's yielded him a record-equaling 47 of a possible 50 coaches votes. In that span, he's averaging a simply mind-boggling 35 disposals, 20 contested possessions, 11 clearances, and a goal per game. Not bad for someone many believed couldn't play inside midfield.

          But, of course, what makes Daicos stand out from many of his midfield contemporaries is that mesmerising ball use. He almost never wastes a possession, hits targets by hand and foot for fun, and sets up teammates in ways that leave other greats of the game spellbound.

          Picture a four-circle Venn diagram. We'll label the areas 'ball winning', 'ball use', 'footy IQ', and 'consistency'. We seldom see a player smack bang in the middle, with most top midfielders generally only ever checking two or three of the four boxes. Not Daicos. He already has a strong case to be the best in all four areas. Saying that about a 21-year-old is something truly unprecedented.

          Theoretically, he's not close to his prime. After all, what 21-year-old is? Champion Data's relative ratings have Daicos 70.5% better than the average midfielder of his age, the best in recorded history. How much better will he be at 26 or 27? 40% better? Maybe. That's what we expect and often see unfold from the average player.

          But let's not speculate. There's no need. Despite his age, Daicos is already the face of the AFL, and he will be for the next decade. He will probably win multiple Brownlows, coaches awards, and MVPs. And if you don't think he's even a slight chance of ending his career as the greatest midfielder we've ever seen, you're just a hater.

          2. The Demons made a grievous error in not pursuing and signing a top tier key forward

          After crushing the Bulldogs to win the 2021 premiership, it seemed everyone was in agreement that Melbourne was set up for a period of dominance.

          At that point, the Demons possessed the unquestioned No. 1 midfield in the game. Skipper and ruck maestro Max Gawn, along with Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver would not have looked out of place as the All-Australian ruck line. Ed Langdon and Angus Brayshaw were arguably the best wing pair, while Jack Viney provided the hardest of edges.

          The defence, led by Steven May and Jake Lever, was the stingiest in the league, coughing up just 64 points per game. Small and mid-sized forward also got ticks with the emergence of Bayley Fritsch and Kysaiah Pickett.

          In fact, the only real Demon deficiency was key forward. Tom McDonald and Ben Brown were serviceable during the premiership campaign, but neither, particularly given their age, players you'd want to build a forward line around.

          An upgrade here could have set the club up for that extended period of dominance, but here we are, almost three years on, and Melbourne continues to be absent of a genuine spearhead. I'd argue it's been complete list malpractice to not improve this position. The Demons are wasting the era and haven't capitalised on its star-studded list.

          It's not as if they weren't prepared to take big swings; they just weren't the right ones. Last off-season, Melbourne brought in Brodie Grundy on a lucrative deal. He played just 17 games and provided little before departing for the Swans at season's end. The club then turned down Adelaide's seismic offer of a reported two first rounds draft picks for Harrison Petty, a player who -- stay tuned and keep reading -- has been one of the worst performers of anyone in season 2024. Together, they have to be two of the most egregious list management decisions in recent history.

          And then there's the fact they failed to shop picks No. 7 (one of the draft selections they received in the Luke Jackson trade the year prior) and 13 in the most recent draft, instead opting to recruit a pair of 18-year-olds.

          It's been misstep after misstep for the Demons and an ongoing negligence of failing to address its greatest need. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but since that 2021 flag, Gawn, Petracca, Oliver, Viney, May, and Lever have only aged. The premiership window doesn't stay open forever, and more often than not, it shuts far quicker than you expect.

          3. There are only 14 legitimate superstars in the AFL

          You hear it in commentary game after game. Player X is a superstar. Player Y is a superstar. Heck, every second player is a superstar. Sorry, but I've got news for you all; there are no more than 14 in the league.

          You can be a star, you can be great, you can even be iconic, but to be a bone fide 'superstar' of the league you must be ... well ... exactly that! It's time we stop throwing this superlative around willy-nilly.

          To be a superstar you must be able to do things other can't. You must be someone who can not only put your side on your back, but do it with regularity. You must be adored by fans of your club and revered by fans of the other 17. And, more often than not, at some point in time have been in the discussion for best player in the sport.

          In alphabetical order, here's my definitive list of superstars in the AFL today.

          MARCUS BONTEMPELLI
          JEREMY CAMERON
          PATRICK CRIPPS
          CHARLIE CURNOW
          NICK DAICOS
          PATRICK DANGERFIELD
          NAT FYFE
          MAX GAWN
          TOBY GREENE
          TOM HAWKINS
          DUSTIN MARTIN
          LACHIE NEALE
          SCOTT PENDLEBURY
          CHRISTIAN PETRACCA

          There's 14 names, five of which in Dangerfield, Fyfe, Hawkins, Martin, and Pendlebury, are what I'll call 'legacy superstars'. Their best is in the rear view mirror, but they have ascended high enough up the legacy mountain to maintain their superstar status until they call time on their careers.

          That leaves nine genuine, current superstars of the sport: Bontempelli, Cameron, Cripps, Curnow, Daicos, Gawn, Greene, Neale, and Petracca. Nobody else at this moment in time should be referred to as a superstar.

          4. I'm glad Harley Reid was suspended for his dangerous tackle, but...

          I've been ultra-critical of the AFL for its, let's say, 'soft' approach to handling incidents involving its best and needle-moving players. But the two-week ban slapped on Harley Reid for slinging Darcy Wilson to the ground head-first was spot on.

          I don't think Reid is a dirty player, but he deserves the suspension for this dangerous act. I'm sure he'll learn from it.

          Now, the real matter at hand: the AFL Rising Star.

          Why does a 'fairest' element need to be pinned to this award? I've argued season after season, including earlier this year, that the Brownlow Medal should remove the fairest aspect. No other awards have this stipulation. A key forward can belt someone, miss five games, and still win the Coleman Medal if they're good enough. In fact, you can argue it's a greater achievement to have won the gong having played fewer games!

          Reid, and Bulldogs young gun Sam Darcy, for that matter, should both still be eligible for the Rising Star award.

          5. Who are the best (and worst) performers by position

          We're halfway through the season, so what better time to revisit Champion Data's 100X ratings.

          A reminder, this metric looks at every player, in position, and ranks them against the competition average, for every 100 minutes played.

          Here are the top five performers of the year to date:

          And here are the bottom five:

          6. This umpiring moment should rightly infuriate Magpies fans

          I maintain the fact Collingwood did not lose two premiership points after the controversial free kick in the closing stages of that Round 11 draw with Fremantle. With that said, I can understand why Magpies fans would be irate with it and the subsequent officiating.

          A week later, and we get this incident...

          Hey, AFL, don't you know that fans are crying out for consistency? Most of us can stomach a rule we don't love if it's adjudicated the same way every week. What drives us nuts is when that interpretation and propensity to blow the whistle changes from week to week, and from game to game. Sort it out!