What's the best case scenario for your AFL team in 2024? Now what's the worst case? The likelihood is it will be somewhere in between.
ESPN's Jake Michaels runs his eyes over every club and identifies the best possible, worst possible, and most likely year for each -- the latter being what he believes will eventuate.
Jump to a position:
ADEL | BRIS | CARL | COLL | ESS | FREM | GEEL | GC | GWS | HAW | MEL | NM | PA | RICH | STK | SYD | WCE | WB
Adelaide
Best case: Taylor Walker's career resurgence continues, Jordan Dawson takes another monumental leap, and Matt Crouch ends the year with people wondering how it was possible for him to be out of favour for so long. Adelaide returns to the September action for the first time since 2017 and, as the league's highest scoring team, wins at least an elimination final.
Worst case: The snap heard around the world -- aka Ben Keays' should-have-been game winner against Sydney in last year's penultimate round -- takes a mental toll on the footy club. Matthew Nicks is unable to correct the skid and it quickly becomes clear how much they miss Tom Doedee in the backline. They finish the year with just seven wins.
Most likely: The Crows are a middling side throughout the year and with three games to play face the scenario of winning them all and they're in, win only two and they're hoping other results go your way. They sneak into eighth and are beaten as an underdog in an elimination final.
Brisbane
Best case: The Lions put last year's Grand Final heartbreak behind them and finally get over the hump, winning the club's first premiership since 2003. Chris Fagan's approach is justified, Lachie Neale completes his Hall of Fame resume, and, of course, talk of a dynasty begins.
Worst case: Instead of serving as a source of motivation, the 'what ifs' from the dying moments of last year's Grand Final actually haunt them. Having been so close to glory and having to start from scratch proves too difficult to overcome. Brisbane starts slowly and is never able to regain momentum, unexpectedly finishing 10th and missing finals. Folks wonder what happened and if their time at the top is done.
Most likely: The club only got better this off-season with the recruitment of Tom Doedee, while young gun Will Ashcroft will also make his return to the midfield. Yet again, the Lions are a serious flag contender. They finish the home and away season in the top four and win multiple finals.
Carlton
Best case: At around 6pm, on the last Saturday in September, Patrick Cripps holds the premiership cup aloft in the middle of the MCG. The Blues prove the back half of 2023 was no aberration by going two better and winning the club's first flag since 1995.
Worst case: The Carlton side we saw between rounds five and 13 last year -- a nine-game stretch that produced just one win over the hapless Eagles -- is what this side really is. They splutter to a 10th-place finish, questions arise over Cripps' leadership, as well as the move to extend coach Michael Voss before the season even got underway. Major change is on the horizon.
Most likely: With some of the best top-end talent in the league, and top-end talent only really just coming into their prime, the Blues are back in the premiership mix. This time, it's not surprising. And this time, they actually win their preliminary final.
Collingwood
Best case: The Magpies go back-to-back! The playing group remains as hungry as ever and, with the addition of Lachie Schultz and the depth to cover the losses of Taylor Adams and Jack Ginnivan, proves to be an even better side in 2024. Craig McRae's coaching star continues to rise, and so too does the frequency of dynasty talk surrounding the club.
Worst case: Even the floor feels pretty high for this side, but a premiership hangover isn't beyond the realms of possibility. The Magpies start slowly and the luck that was going their way in tight games begins to turn. They slump to sixth on the ladder by the end of the home and away season, but nobody wants to face them in September.
Most likely: The Magpies experience a very minor premiership hangover, which has them suffer a loss or two in the first month of the season, but by the time the bye weeks roll around, they again look the team to beat. A top four finish is a near certainty, which means finals at the MCG with the loudest fan base in the country behind them. They end the year with a second Grand Final appearance in as many years.
Essendon
Best case: Ben McKay plays in the same stratosphere as the compensation value North Melbourne received for him, Todd Goldstein has footy left in the tank, Jade Gresham puts together a career year, and Xavier Duursma proves the Power wrong. The quartet provides the depth and polish this club has been desperate for as Essendon sneak into finals, and in short order, kill off the 'days-without-a-finals-win' memes.
Worst case: The warning signs were there to close last season and 2024 is much of the same. Directionless football, calamitous defending, and a group that doesn't look to want to play for each other ... never mind the coach. The Bombers slide even further down the ladder, joining the likes of West Coast and North Melbourne in the bottom four by season's end.
Most likely: It becomes clear early that the players brought in won't move the needle dramatically, and Essendon is once again only an outside shot of playing in September. They win 10 games, never look overly threatening, and miss out on finals football.
Fremantle
Best case: Justin Longmuir remains head coach at season's end after a campaign in which the Dockers improve, albeit only slightly, on last year's disappointing 10-13 record. The club is able to continue getting games into their promising youngsters and finishes the year smack bang in the middle of the ladder ... or somewhere around that mark.
Worst case: Longmuir is relieved of his duties before the bye weeks as Fremantle's struggles post-2022 carry over into another season. The club wins just seven games for the year and appears set for a full blown rebuild. The year ends with even more players asking out.
Most likely: The Dockers are the exact same team as last year - nowhere near good enough to be a finalist, nowhere near bad enough to be anchored near the bottom of the ladder. After six seasons in charge, the club parts ways with Longmuir and prepares for a fresh chapter in 2025.
Geelong
Best case: The Cats' critics are, once again, left with egg on their face as Chris Scott and his troops bounce back from last year's disappointment, return to finals, and even win one. Jeremy Cameron looks like the best player in the league, the young midfield shows promise, and Patrick Dangerfield proves there's still plenty left in his tank.
Worst case: The Geelong era, as we knew it, is over. After nearly two decades of consistency and success, the Cats suffer back-to-back years of mediocrity. Tom Hawkins retires, Dangerfield appears close to following suit, and all of a sudden there's holes to fill all across the park. The slide leads to Scott 'pulling a Damien Hardwick'.
Most likely: Just like last year, Geelong's forward line, led by Cameron and Hawkins, continues to be among the best in the league, while the defensive unit also improves after an uncharacteristically poor 2023. However, the inexperienced midfield is what holds them back. The Cats lose more games than they win, for the second year running, and we have to acknowledge the bottom has fallen out.
Gold Coast
Best case: Damien Hardwick justifies his mammoth contract and proves he's the best coach in the sport by leading the Suns into finals for the first time in club history. Touk Miller rediscovers his sparkling 2022 form, Ben King is able to stay healthy and continue his ascension, and, just like that, Gold Coast is a team to be taken seriously.
Worst case: Hardwick's comment that 80% of the Suns' first premiership side is already on the list becomes something of a meme as the club continues to alternate between stirring win and horrific lose, with a whole lot of 'meh' mixed in. Finals are well-and-truly off the table by Round 18.
Most likely: The Suns still struggle for consistency but are good enough to upset two or three top six sides throughout the year and remain alive for finals with two games to play. As expected, the footy public fawns over Hardwick and the job he's been able to do as the Suns look to be in a strong position moving forward.
GWS
Best case: We learn very quickly that last year's run to a preliminary final was no fluke and this Giants team, under the expert guidance of Adam Kingsley, is for real. Toby Greene finishes top three in the Coleman Medal, Sam Taylor is the All-Australian fullback, and Tom Green enters the Brownlow Medal count among the favourites as GWS improves on last season and reaches the Grand Final.
Worst case: Just as it was for the Hawks in 2018, the far tougher 'top six' draw turns out to be a real handful for the Giants, and 2024 becomes a year of regression. They miss out on finals and leave everyone convinced 2023 was a perfect storm that won't be repeated with this group.
Most likely: GWS picks up where it left off last season as one of the best teams in the competition. Giants Stadium becomes more of a fortress for Kingsley and his troops, helping them lock up a top four spot. Their season ends somewhere around semifinal and preliminary final weekend.
Hawthorn
Best case: The midfield group of Jai Newcombe, Will Day, James Worpel, and others takes another leap in production and helps to separate the club from the rabble at the bottom of the ladder. Sam Mitchell is in coach of the year discussions as the Hawks' win tally hits double figures, leaving just about everyone convinced they return to the finals in 2025.
Worst case: The depleted defensive unit proves costly as the Hawks fail to live up to the billing as a team on the rise, never winning back-to-back games and slumping to a disappointing five-win year. Mitch Lewis endures another injury-interrupted season, Luke Breust calls time on his career, and expectation for 2025 plummets.
Most likely: Like last year, the Hawks begin slowly, but warm into the season as it progresses and their defensive stocks are bolstered. The gulf between their best and worst footy is gargantuan, and it's that inconsistency and lack of reliability that has them still finishing bottom six, albeit having taken another small step in the right direction.
Melbourne
Best case: The Demons put all of the off-field troubles behind them, as well as their finals failures, capitalising on their talent-laden list and winning a second premiership in four years. All of a sudden, the blowtorch comes off Simon Goodwin and the club is just one more great year away from a bone fide dynasty.
Worst case: For the third straight year, the Demons take a step in the wrong direction, this time dropping outside the top eight as the aforementioned off-field dramas continue to snowball and weigh heavily on the club. Further questions arise over Goodwin's leadership and whether he is the right man to lead them beyond 2024.
Most likely: Melbourne continues to set the standard throughout the home-and-away season, locking up a top four spot -- and the double chance -- with two rounds to spare. They win their first final since the 2021 Grand Final, enjoy a week off, and return as a 50-50 shot to play in another decider.
North Melbourne
Best case: The Kangaroos enjoy their most successful year since 2019, winning six games and surprising the footy public by avoiding a bottom two finish. The year is highlighted by Nick Larkey kicking 80 goals to win the Coleman Medal and the superstar emergence of dynamic midfielder Luke Davies-Uniacke.
Worst case: The Eagles take a step in the right direction and leave the Kangaroos in their wake as the unquestioned worst team in football. The season is dominated by further polorising talk of the priority picks North Melbourne seem to so desperately require.
Most likely: Alastair Clarkson's North Melbourne project continues to be a slow burn. The Kangaroos win four to five games for the year and have another season-long battle with the Eagles to avoid the wooden spoon. By season's end, we can start to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
Port Adelaide
Best case: New captain Connor Rozee and running mate Zak Butters become the best one-two midfield punch in the league, the defensive woes are finally fixed, and the Power charge back into finals. This time, instead of flaming out, they break through and reach the Grand Final. The persistence with Ken Hinkley pays enormous dividends.
Worst case: Port Adelaide fails to repeat their efforts of 2023, only managing to scrape into September before being sent packing in an elimination final. The year ends with the club searching for a new coach, and new identity, after parting ways with Hinkley.
Most likely: The off-season defensive additions make an immediate impact as the Power quickly become a more sound unit. Their best players are in All-Australian and Brownlow Medal discussions, and Ollie Wines enjoys a bounce-back year. The problem? A lack of depth across the board continues to hold them back from going any further than a semifinal.
Richmond
Best case: Tom Lynch returns, remains healthy, and reminds the footy world why he's one of the best key forwards in the game. Shai Bolton becomes consistent, Dustin Martin carries on his form from last season, and the defence is rock solid. The Tigers make a shock return to finals ... and win one.
Worst case: There was a reason Damien Hardwick wanted out and it's because he could see the bottom was close to falling out of this side. For the first time since 2010, the Tigers win fewer than eight games, and at no point look even an outside chance of playing in September. The year goes from bad to worse when Martin requests a trade to the Suns.
Most likely: They aren't great, they aren't horrific, instead, they're a middle-of-the-road footy team. Richmond finishes the season somewhere between eighth and 12th, and are back in that no man's land region of the ladder. They enter the 2024 off-season with half of footy media bullish about their 2025 prospects and the other half sounding the alarm bells.
St Kilda
Best case: A repeat of 2023. Rowan Marshall takes the baton from Max Gawn as the game's best ruck and Jack Sinclair backs up his All-Australian season as the Saints sneak into finals once again. But just like last year, nobody has faith in them. And just like last year, they are bounced in an elimination final.
Worst case: The Saints are the league's biggest fallers, dropping from sixth spot in 2023 to the bottom four. It's another year of regression for Jack Steele, Max King is unable to stay healthy, which means scoring dries up even more, and teams have no problem breaking down Ross Lyon's ultra defensive approach. Nobody at the club has any answers.
Most likely: It becomes evident in the first month that the Saints are a step or two below the other sides vying for a place in the bottom half of the top eight. The year yields just eight wins, the fewest for the club since 2018, and confidence in the list plummets to a new low.
Sydney
Best case: With a serious injection of talent, particularly through the midfield, the Swans defy all expectations en route to a second Grand Final appearance in three years. Chad Warner and Errol Gulden combine for 50 Brownlow Medal votes and John Longmire makes a legitimate case for being the best current coach in the game.
Worst case: The Lance Franklin void proves too difficult to fill in what's still a relatively young and inexperienced forward line. Sydney's scoring dries up considerably and only the abundance of midfield talent is saving them from a horror year. The Swans win 10 games and miss finals for the first time since 2020.
Most likely: The Swans continue to set the standard for professionalism and consistency. They pick up where they left off late last year, never endure a three-game losing streak, and are in contention all year for the coveted double chance. They win one final to leave the fan base bullish about the future.
West Coast
Best case: Last year's top draft pick Harley Reid delivers on the hype and proves there's light at the end of the tunnel after all; the only thing required is patience. Oscar Allen also enjoys a career-best year with 60 goals, helping West Coast notch five wins for the season. But the main difference from 12 months back is that the majority of these games aren't over by half time.
Worst case: The Eagles endure their worst ever season in the league, winning just two games and losing five of them by triple figure margins. Adam Simpson reneges on his desire to coach the club out of the mire, and the board only bangs the priority pick drum louder.
Most likely: It's mostly more of the same. West Coast continues to be the easy beats of the competition, only good enough to jag the odd win against their fellow cellar dwellers. But with more games and experience into the youngsters, you begin to see tangible improvement and there's reason for some optimism ahead of season 2025.
Western Bulldogs
Best case: Discussion surrounding Luke Beveridge's future at the club is put to rest as the Bulldogs finish the home-and-away season fourth. Much of the success is attributed to the development of the club's young key forwards, who, together, look as if they could grow into the league's best unit in two or three seasons.
Worst case: Not only is there no noticeable improvement from last year, but things that were working 12 months back suddenly do not. Those young key forwards continue to struggle, while the midfield depth players fail to bounce back from a trying campaign. The year is made worse by losing two of the out-of-contract Bailey Smith, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, and Tim English.
Most likely: The Bulldogs continue to be heavily reliant on midfield stars Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore, while Aaron Naughton remains one of the most inconsistent forwards in the game. With that said, they enter the final two rounds of the season in 10th place and still alive for an unlikely finals berth.