Who are the favourites for the AFL premiership? Who are the legitimate contenders? And who should already be booking September holidays? Jake Michaels has ranked every club after the second month of the season in his June edition of tiers.
Note: ESPN's AFL tiers will be a monthly column throughout the 2024 season.
The 1996 Chicago Bulls
1. SYDNEY
Dominant, rampant, and it feels somewhat inevitable they will conquer the league. If we're being honest, the premiership race doesn't feel particularly close at this point. Sydney sits on top of the ladder with a record of 11-1 and a percentage of 148.8. Just like the Bulls in 1996, the Swans have 2024's best player in Isaac Heeney, who has almost certainly crossed the 20 Brownlow vote mark with basically half a season still to play. But it's not just Heeney. Chad Warner, Errol Gulden, Brodie Grundy, Tom Papley, Nick Blakey ... there's stars and game winners on every line. This side is going to take some stopping...
READ: Star Swan leads ESPN's Brownlow predictor
The only legitimate challengers to the Swans
2. CARLTON
3. COLLINGWOOD
It's clear cut the Swans are the team to beat in 2024, but it's also become quite obvious who might be capable of upsetting them in September. Carlton moved to second on the ladder with a win over arch-rival Essendon in Round 13. The club is littered with A-grade talent and we know their best is good enough to worry anyone in the competition, something you can also say about Collingwood. That premiership hangover is well and truly in the rearview mirror now. The Magpies have lost just once in their last 10 games, and if finals began tomorrow, even with a number of key injuries, there aren't many sides you'd be picking over them.
The Abraham Lincolns
4. PORT ADELAIDE
5. ESSENDON
The 16th president of the United States was known throughout his tenure as 'Honest Abe'. You always knew what you were getting. There were never any surprises. Port Adelaide and Essendon are very much the same; honest sides that very rarely leave us shocked. And that's in either a positive or negative way. The other similarity these teams share with Lincoln is a large portion of the public wanting to declare them the best, or close to it. But we all know deep down the Power and Bombers, who both have clearly defined high floors, also have limitations. We have long standing evidence to suggest neither team can beat the sides we truly believe are in the premiership window.
Okay, maybe I was wrong...
6. GWS
7. FREMANTLE
8. MELBOURNE
9. HAWTHORN
In pre-season, I had GWS and Melbourne both top four locks. I also had Fremantle languishing somewhere close to the bottom six. All three sides need to be desperately re-evalutated after the first half of the year. The Giants' 5-0 start has quickly become 7-5 and, all of a sudden, they look totally incapable of kicking a winning score. The Demons are in the midst of a horror 1-4 stretch which includes shocking losses to West Coast, Fremantle, and, most recently, Collingwood on King's Birthday. Meanwhile, the Dockers have only really played two poor games all season, have knocked off -- and drawn with -- some premiership fancies, and deserve to be viewed as a team, at the very least, on the contender periphery. And then there's Hawthorn. I was expecting improvement from the Hawks, but not this much, this quickly, especially given the injury list the club has had to overcome. If the season ended today, Sam Mitchell and John Longmire would tie for coach of the year.
READ: Young Hawks continuing to impress on the big stage
Fundamentally flawed
10. GEELONG
11. BRISBANE
12. GOLD COAST
Don't get me wrong, these are mostly good teams. Do I think any of them will be premiers this year? No chance. Will any of them make the last four? No. Geelong has been overrated by fans and the media all year. I feel as though I've been the only truth teller about the club, which has now lost five of its last six games and might have the weakest midfield of any side not currently sitting in the bottom four. We seem to discover a new flaw in Brisbane just about every second week, be it blowing what seems to be insurmountable leads, an inability to score, team chemistry, morale, or even just a wretched injury list. And then there's Queensland neighbour Gold Coast. The Suns literally cannot win on the road -- they haven't won an away game since Round 9 last year -- so how can we possibly take them seriously?
Open up the classifieds
13. WESTERN BULLDOGS
14. ADELAIDE
15. ST KILDA
All three of these teams had realistic pre-season ambitions of playing in September. Some even thought they were in flag contention. Here we are, after Round 13, and all of them sit well outside the top eight. There is not a single three-game win streak between these clubs and together they have just five wins over top eight sides. The Western Bulldogs are the only one of the three that could play finals, but that's beginning to look a long shot, and few would be remotely confident even if they made it. All three fanbases are frustrated. All three are crying out for change. If we're being honest, none of these coaches should feel safe if they're unable to turn things around in the back half of the year.
READ: Re-signed Matthew Nicks already in trouble?
Mirage in the desert
16. WEST COAST
17. RICHMOND
Despite some recent successes, these teams are not good. I can promise you that. West Coast knocked off Melbourne a few weeks back, but have since been pumped by the Crows and beaten by the previously winless Kangaroos. Richmond enjoyed its second win of the year in Round 13, knocking off the Crows in Adelaide, but their percentage of 64.9 tells us everything we need to know about their horrific season. Don't get sucked in to believing either of these teams are better than they really are.
And still ... University-esque
18. NORTH MELBOURNE
In terms of win-loss record, nobody comes close to University as the worst team in VFL/AFL history. Its last four seasons, between 1911 and 1914, were particularly grim. The club won just two games and suffered 70 defeats. North Melbourne isn't quite there yet, but it's making a real case to be the worst side in 100 years. The Kangaroos have just two wins from its last 34 games, though one of them was last week against the Harley Reid-less Eagles. You want to get carried away with that win and make the case they are on the up? Be my guest. I'm not buying it for a second.