UFL Week 7 picks: Over or under for Birmingham-St. Louis showdown?

Adrian Martinez and the undefeated Birmingham Stallions host the 5-1 St. Louis Battlehawks in Week 7's most anticipated matchup. Jack Gorman/UFL/Getty Images

While the UFL is a new league, that doesn't mean we don't have some knowledge that can prove useful for bettors looking to make a couple smart bets. Daniel Dopp and Matt Willis are here to break down what you need to know about betting on Week 7 of the UFL. Check back every Friday as Daniel and Matt take you all the way through to the UFL championship game on June 16.

All odds by ESPN BET.

Dopp: Willis! How good was last week in the UFL? Jake Bates kicked another 60-yarder, Adrian Martinez put together his second 300-yard passing game -- showcasing why he deserves a chance in the NFL -- and we've got two clear teams at the top of the standings. I don't know about you, but I'm ready to dive into another week of the UFL!

Willis: Daniel, my calculator was smoking, and my abacus was spinning this week trying to make sense of last week in the UFL, causing me to burn the midnight oil as I was diving, Scrooge McDuck-style, into a proverbial silo full of Microsoft Excel pivot tables. But at least, "Major League 2" was on to keep me company long after the rest of the house had gone to sleep. Which begs a vital question; what's your favorite late-night cable movie that you can't just turn off, and which of the "National Treasure" movies is it?

Dopp: First off, I kid you not, it was going to be "National Treasure." It's just grown-up "Goonies," so of course it's my favorite! One more Dopp cable classic, the original "Mummy" with Brendan Fraser and Rachel Weisz. Looking at those movies, maybe I just like treasure?! Haha!

Willis: We're not trying to find a lost city of gold this week, but we are trying to figure out just who is the UFL's best team, and we'll get that as the 6-0 Birmingham Stallions host the 5-1 St. Louis Battlehawks, whose only loss came in Week 1. Both are coming off back-to-back double-digit wins.

Dopp: This is going to be the matchup of the season, Matt. It's clear that St. Louis and Birmingham are the two best teams in the league because they have the two best QBs in the league in Martinez and AJ McCarron.

Willis: These are two elite teams on both sides of the ball. While Birmingham leads the league in pass and rush yards, they also hold opponents to the fewest rush yards per game. And St. Louis leads the UFL in fewest pass yards allowed. And while the Battlehawks have been cooking, they have been struggling on third downs to the tune of 5 for 23 over the past two games. So I think the total of 47.5 is a little too high for these two top-notch defenses, so I like the under this week.

Dopp: Birmingham leads the UFL in sacks (23) and turnovers forced (11) so we could absolutely see a defensive battle in this one which may limit some of the scoring.

Willis: Let's flip to the team that looks like it's going to take on the Stallions for the USFL conference title, the Michigan Panthers. Daniel, you have the floor to wax poetic over Jake Bates.

Dopp: I don't have enough space to say everything I want to say about Jake Bates, so I'll keep it tight. He kicked five field goals last week. He's kicked three 60-yard field goals this season. No kicker in NFL history has ever kicked three 60-yard FGs in a season. Oh, did I mention that Bates did it in just six games? This guy will be in a training camp and hopefully on my Detroit Lions after the end of the UFL season. Let's speak it into existence! OK, I had the baton. Back over to you.

Willis: OK, this week, we unleash Bates on the DC Defenders. Michigan's laying a point on the road, but for me, that's not a bad number because there's an area it can exploit. The Panthers are second in the UFL in rushing, while the Defenders have the second-worst rush defense, including allowing the Brahmas to run for 200 yards and 6.5 per carry last week. The Defenders have been running the ball more themselves, but not efficiently over the past two games. I'll take the Panthers on the road.

Dopp: Danny Etling isn't the same level of QB as EJ Perry and it's because of that that they're running the ball so much! With the running game working, there's no reason to force your QB to throw the ball more than you want. I'm definitely taking the Panthers on the road with the expectation we'll have another heavy ground game in this one. Let's pivot and talk about the Brahmas this week, Willis? How are you approaching them?

Willis: The Brahmas have allowed fewer than 20 points in five of six games this season and unders are 5-1 in their games. The Roughnecks have had half their games go under, but in each of those games there were 30 or fewer points allowed. Two of their three overs went over by fewer than two points. San Antonio has been running the ball well the past two games, but Houston's run defense has played well other than a matchup with juggernaut Birmingham. The total is low (40), but I still like the under.

Dopp: Just in case you're new to this article (or the UFL) ESPN BET now has UFL props! Willis, we've had a great couple of weeks so let's keep this rolling!

Willis' Prop Picks for Week 7

QB Luis Perez (ARL) over 228.5 pass yards. I think the Renegades finally pick up a win this week. I don't like them laying five points, but I do like Perez to go over his prop. In three of their past five games, the Showboats' opposing QB went for at least 287 yards, and in one of the two other games, AJ McCarron went for 222. Perez has been good this year considering his team is winless, and I think he lights it up for win No. 1.

WR Daewood Davis (MEM) under 54.5 receiving yards. In Troy Williams' only start this season, Davis got 16 targets and caught six balls for 101 yards. In five games with Case Cookus starting, Davis has been held under 45 yards four times, with 58 yards in the other. Even if Williams starts in place of Cookus for the struggling Showboats, the low efficiency they showed together makes me think under here.

RB Wes Hills (MICH) over 29.5 rush yards. Hills was held to 15 yards last week, but Michigan still gave him nine carries. He's just a week removed from 82 rush yards on 16 carries. He's averaging more than 10 carries a game this season, and against a porous DC rush defense, he stands in line to go over.

QB Quentin Dormady (SA) under 218.5 pass yards. The Brahmas have had so much success running the ball recently, I don't think they'll get away from that formula. Plus only one QB has gone over that number against Houston this season, and that was MVP candidate AJ McCarron last week (255).

Dopp: This is why you're the best. Great insight and analysis as well, Matt. Appreciate you my friend.

Don't forget to love each other, be kind to yourself, enjoy the games, and we'll see everyone next week!

If you still want more UFL content on top of this, check out Daniel Dopp, Skubie Mageza and Joe Gioia every Sunday night at 6:30 p.m. ET for the definitive UFL recap show! UFL Today will bring fans the top moments from the weekend, with game highlights, airing live on ESPN's YouTube, Facebook and the ESPN App, in most cases following the last game of the weekend.

Follow Dopp and Willis on X, formerly Twitter @danieldopp and @WillisOnNascar.