What are the chances that the five teams atop the five major European leagues all win the title? According to FiveThirtyEight's projections: just 8.5%!
Put another way, the average gap between first and second across England, Germany, Spain, Italy and France is 3.6 points -- or, put yet another way, just slightly more than one win. At the same stage last year, there was a clear favorite in each league. Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain all won. So did Manchester City, but Liverpool chased them down and pushed it as close as possible. Inter Milan, meanwhile, got caught by their intrastadium rivals, AC Milan.
Despite much more lopsided tables at this point last year, we still got two legit title races, and this season there should be even more. And that's before we even get to the Champions League, where the field is always way more likely to win than the favorite.
So, with a wild five months on the way, let's set the table for what's to come. Using FiveThirtyEight's probabilities, I ranked all 19 teams with at least a 4% chance (1 in 25) of winning one of Europe's six major prizes.
All stats, unless otherwise noted, come courtesy of Stats Perform.
T-17. RB Leipzig: 4% to win the Bundesliga
As a rule of thumb, the truly elite teams in Europe tend to produce a per-game xG differential of plus-1 or better. In Marco Rose's first 10 games in charge, Leipzig have been ever so slightly above that mark, at plus-1.07. If that version of Leipzig is the real Leipzig or if Bayern suffer some injuries or get unlucky across a couple of matches, or both, then sure: 1-out-of-25 sounds about right.
T-17. Marseille: 4% to win Ligue 1
Their leading goal scorers are Arsenal cast-offs Alexis Sanchez, who is 34, and Nuno Tavares, who is a full-back. No one else on the team has scored more than three goals.
T-17. Juventus: 4% to win Serie A
Is Max Allegri at it again? This team still isn't very good, but Juventus won multiple league titles in Allegri's first managerial stint without ever really "being very good."
They didn't dominate matches the way most top teams typically do; they just executed in decisive moments, over and over and over again. Well, they're currently in third, seven points back of first and with the second-best goal differential (plus-18) in the league. Of course, that's a mirage; their xG differential is just plus-4.5, and that massive overperformance is mostly down to conceding an absurd seven goals from 17.4 xG.
That's unlikely to continue, but their fortunate run already happened: Juventus don't have to give those points back. And with Paul Pogba, Federico Chiesa and Angel Di Maria all set to return at some point, this team is due for a sudden infusion of talent that should significantly raise the level of play.
The last time Napoli were this close to a title, Juventus snatched it away right at the end. Will it happen again? Probably not, but we've reached the point where we're saying there's a chance.
16. Porto, Chelsea and Inter: 4% to win the Champions League
One of either Porto or Inter is guaranteed a spot in the quarterfinals because they play each other, and then whoever wins has a better-than-50/50 shot at avoiding City/Bayern/PSG/Liverpool/Madrid in the next round. They could draw someone like, say, I don't know, Chelsea, who currently have a plus-one goal differential and a minus-5.02 xG differential through 17 matches.
The Blues were bad under Thomas Tuchel; they've been even worse under Graham Potter, and a raft of key players are injured.
15. Lens: 5% to win Ligue 1
Well, they just beat PSG, so that's a good start. When Lille won the league two years ago, they had an 8% chance of doing it, per FiveThirtyEight, at this same stage of the season.
The big difference? Lille were tied on points with PSG; Lens, meanwhile, have to make up a four-point gap over the final 21 matches.
Lionel Messi was given a guard of honour by his PSG teammates on his return to training after winning the World Cup with Argentina.
14. Napoli and Benfica: 5% to win the Champions League
I think we're probably lagging in our general appreciation for Porto and Benfica. Over the past few years, a number of stars have made the jump from these clubs directly into the starting lineups for some of the best teams in the Premier League. In fact, I'm not convinced that players from these clubs aren't more likely to succeed in England than players from Germany or Italy.
Thanks to their draw with, uh, Scott Parker(?) and Club Brugge, Benfica have the best odds (78%) of any team to advance to the quarters.
- Stream on ESPN+: LaLiga, Bundesliga, more (U.S.)
Napoli, meanwhile, have their own relatively easy matchup with Eintracht Frankfurt (66%). After that, at least two of Liverpool, Madrid, Bayern and PSG will be gone, too. Might 5% be too low?
13. PSG: 6% to win the Champions League
Part of this low number is due to their matchup with Bayern. But the other part is that they produced just the 13th-best xG differential among all the teams in the Champions League group stages. As absurd as it seems to say this after the World Cup, we just still don't have much evidence that the team with Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar will be able to string together the seven consecutive consistent performances you need to win the Champions League.
12. Liverpool and Real Madrid: 7% to win the Champions League
Stats Perform has a stat called "Big Chances," which is defined as follows: "A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances."
Here's how all the teams across the Big Five leagues compare when it comes to creating and conceding big chances:
You see Liverpool all alone in the top right? That's why they're capable of winning or losing every single game they play. Despite everything in the image above, Liverpool are slight favorites -- in the betting markets and in the FiveThirtyEight model -- against Real Madrid in their round-of-16 matchup. THIS IS NOT BETTING ADVICE, but, well, all of that was also true when they met in the final last year and in the quarterfinals the year before.
11. AC Milan: 16% to win Serie A
They're not as good as Inter, but they're three points closer to first, so they're just about as likely as Inter to chase down Napoli. The big question: where will the goals come from? Rafael Leao leads the team with seven non-penalty goals, but no one else is above four.
10. Inter Milan: 18% to win Serie A
Although they're currently in fourth and eight points back of first, Inter have the third-best xG differential in Italy. They're not too far behind Napoli in that regard, either: plus-13.2 to plus-15.9. (Sixth-place Roma have the best xG differential in Serie A but have just a plus-5 actual goal differential. The Soccer Gods have been having lots of fun with Jose Mourinho.)
With Romelu Lukaku back in the lineup and Marcelo Brozovic presumably returning soon, too, Inter have the best squad and the best starting XI in the league. They should close the gap on Napoli over the next few months, but those eight points are likely gonna be too much to make up.
9. Manchester City: 22% to win the Champions League
Thanks to a relatively easy round-of-16 draw for themselves and a pair of tough draws for their four closest competitors, City are the heavy betting favorites to win the Champions League. Of course, they've been the betting favorites to win the Champions League in each of the past five seasons, too.
I say it every year: Manchester City are more likely to win Europe's biggest prize than any other team, but the most likely outcome is that some team other than City will end up winning it all.
8. Bayern Munich: 25% to win the Champions League
Per FiveThirtyEight, Bayern Munich rate out as the best team in the world. If you consider the Bundesliga as one of the two or three best leagues in the world, that makes sense. If you're struggling to understand why, go back and look at that chart from the first section.
However, I think we've reached the point in European competition where we need to see it to believe it with Julian Nagelsmann's Bayern. Their opening group stage win over Barcelona in Germany was a relatively even game, and they were quite poor against Villarreal in the quarterfinals of last year's tournament. If they comfortably handle a still-very-flawed PSG in the round of 16, then I'll buy this number. But until then, it feels way too high.
T-6. Arsenal: 42% to win the Premier League
Much as with Napoli, no one expected Arsenal to be this good. Along with PSG, they're leading the Big Five leagues in points per game, and their underlying numbers are fantastic, too. When a team suddenly explodes out of the gates like that, we should always expect some decline back toward preseason expectation, even if nothing about the team fundamentally changes. They're not this good, but they're still really damn good; FiveThirtyEight currently rates them as the fourth-best team in the world.
However, something fundamental then did change about Arsenal when they lost their new star center forward, Gabriel Jesus, to a long-term injury picked up at the World Cup. In the first two games back after the break, two resounding wins suggested it wasn't going to be much of an issue. But then came the frustrating scoreless draw with Newcastle in which the Gunners attempted 17 mostly low-quality shots at home.
Jesus is one of the best all-around forwards in the world, but his replacement, Eddie Nketiah, just rarely got involved against Newcastle:
Even with the five-point lead over City, will Arsenal's dwindling depth be enough to fend off perhaps the deepest team in the world?
T-6. Real Madrid: 42% to win LaLiga
Real Madrid won the Champions League and LaLiga last season. Real Madrid, to my mind, are a much better team this season. And yet, per FiveThirtyEight's odds, there's a 63% chance that Carlo Ancelotti & Co. won't win either trophy in 2023.
5. Manchester City: 50% to win the Premier League
Per game, Manchester City lead the Premier League in:
Expected goals
Expected goals against
Shots
Shots against
Touches in opposition penalty area
Touches allowed in own penalty area
Share of final-third possession
Possessions won in the attacking third
Even though Erling Haaland doesn't touch the ball much outside of when he's kicking it into the other team's goal, City's dominance is as fundamental as it's ever been. They're five points back of first nearly halfway through the season -- and they're still favorites to win it all.
4. Napoli: 59% to win Serie A
When I did this same piece a year ago, I wrote the following:
Through the end of October, it sure looked like Napoli might win Serie A. Undefeated, they'd won 10 out of 11 matches. It was all backed up by impressive underlying numbers -- and then it just stopped.
Well, through the beginning of this November, it sure looked like Napoli might win Serie A. Undefeated, they'd won 13 out of 15 matches. It was all backed up by impressive underlying numbers -- and then it just stopped against Inter Milan on Wednesday.
Based purely on performance this season, there was no argument against Napoli being one of the five best teams in Europe; they were dominating Serie A, and they topped a tough Champions League group. Of course, no one expected this before the season. So, if Napoli do end up coughing up their current five-point lead, it'll likely be because they regress back toward their preseason expectations over the final 22 matches.
If they don't? The league is likely theirs.
3. Barcelona: 58% to win LaLiga
Although the long-term financial management of the club calls to mind a certain Bahamian polycule, Barcelona have conceded six goals across 15 LaLiga matches. Six! Plus, per the site FBref, they have the best expected-goal differential of any team across the Big Five leagues by a significant margin: plus-1.6.
Now, I have absolutely no faith in this team's and this club's ability to deal with adversity. Whenever something goes wrong, they sound like an entitled rich kid who was just told "no" for the first time in his life. But that's more likely to shine through in the short-term ways it already has: in elimination from the Champions League, in a loss to Real Madrid.
On aggregate, they've been the best team in Spain so far this season, and that's why -- despite sitting level on points with Madrid and behind via tiebreaker -- they're the favorites to win it all.
2. Paris Saint-Germain: 88% to win Ligue 1
Has "Messidependencia" finally made its way to France? With Lionel Messi on the field, PSG have scored 38 goals and conceded eight. Per 90 minutes, they're outscoring opponents by 2.4 goals -- or 1.73 goals better than when he's not out there. That's a significantly wider on-off gap than for any of his teammates, and in their first two matches without Messi after the World Cup, PSG drew and then lost.
That's probably a meaningless small-sample-size distinction, but if PSG are to blow the Ligue 1 title for the second time in three years, the chasing pack is gonna need something that seems like noise to actually become a signal.
1. Bayern Munich: 93% to win the Bundesliga
Point: But they have only a four-point lead!
Counterpoint:
Through 15 matches, Bayern Munich have a plus-36 goal differential. That's better than the next six teams in the table ... combined. I'd be shocked if Bayern didn't extend their championship streak into an 11th season.