Despite Todd Boehly's best wishes, trades do not exist in European soccer. But, well, what if they did?
The Premier League starts back up in a couple of days and then, just a few days after that, the January transfer window swings open. The midseason window tends to end in disaster for a lot of teams, most of whom are making desperation moves at this stage of proceedings. With the small, sample allure of the World Cup still fresh in everyone's minds, this could end up being the most chaotic transfer window in recent memory.
So rather than try to predict how all of that might play out, let's try a little thought experiment and see what it might tell us about the state of the Premier League's Big Six. What if the league temporarily allowed trades? Could we come up with a massive three- or six-team trade that included no straight swaps between the sides but also made everyone better?
Let's give it a shot.
Arsenal sends full-back Kieran Tierney to Manchester City
City don't really have any weaknesses. Sure, it might seem like there's a massive Erling Haaland-sized vulnerability hidden somewhere on this Death Star, but this team did just fine over the past two years without a striker. Plus, remember that Julian Alvarez guy everyone was raving about just a couple days ago for his performances with Argentina in Qatar? Yeah, he plays for Manchester City, too.
After all, there's a reason why this team has won four of the past five Premier League titles. They don't have any irreplaceable players because of the way Pep Guardiola likes the team to play, while the front office has used its massive financial advantages to build a side of not only unmatched depth, but also unmatched versatility. Other than Haaland and maybe one or two of the center-backs, everyone on this team -- hell, including the keeper -- is capable of playing multiple positions.
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The one area they might be a bit short is at full-back, where it's João Cancelo, Kyle Walker and then ... maybe Sergio Gomez and, I guess, Nathan Ake, who is really a centre-back? The arrival of Tierney would alleviate some of the constant stress on the health statuses of Cancelo and Walker, and the stylistic fit isn't terrible, either. Arsenal play at a similar pace in possession to City, and while Tierney hasn't fulfilled some of that initial promise he showed in North London, he's a good passer -- 96th percentile across Europe among full-backs for progressive passes -- and is capable of functioning as a traditional attacking full-back or as a third pseudo centre-back.
Tottenham sends full-back Emerson Royal to Manchester United
I'll be honest: Tottenham were the hardest team to involve here. The whole exercise would've been a lot easier if I'd cut it down to just the other five Big Six sides.
Why? Well, Spurs just don't have all that much depth and if you look beyond their top 11 in minutes played so far this season, the departures of any of the three most intriguing names -- midfielder Yves Bissouma and forwards Dejan Kulusevski and Richarlison -- would make the team much worse than any realistic arrival could improve it. Unfortunately, no one else needs an Oliver Skipp or a Lucas Moura. So Emerson and his hyperbaric chamber head to Old Trafford.
Adding an attacker and another midfielder would seem to be way bigger areas of need than right-back, but perfection does not exist in the world of six-team trades. Instead, Erik ten Hag gets another young full-back on the right side. (Yes, Emerson is somehow only 23 years old.) There's already depth on the left with Luke Shaw and Tyrell Malacia, but right-back Diogo Dalot has played more minutes than all but two United outfield players, and he's just getting back from the World Cup.
The Aaron Wan-Bissaka experiment is over -- he's played five total minutes this season -- so Emerson gives United another option behind Dalot and another stylistic profile to complement their other full-backs. While Shaw and Dalot both provide most of their value on the ball, Emerson does whatever damage he does with his movement off of it. Among all full-backs, he ranks in the 93rd percentile for touches inside the penalty area and the 95th percentile for progressive passes received.
Manchester City sends midfielder Kalvin Phillips to Chelsea
We could have sent someone like Aymeric Laporte or Riyad Mahrez -- neither of whom have played more than 375 minutes so far this season -- out in the deal, but it would have thrown everything out of whack. Both of them are much more talented and way more accomplished than any of the other players being mentioned here, so it would've been hard to argue that City were benefiting from this complex trade in the same way that all of the other teams might.
You could still argue that about the option I ultimately went with. But after a couple of years of loss reliance on the one-of-one of 30-plus Fernandinho mopping up things in the midfield and springing attacks forward, Guardiola seems able to make the midfield work no matter who's there. Rodri is great, but if he's not playing, then Ilkay Gundogan can seemingly turn into a holding midfielder at will, or both of the full-backs can pinch in and make sure the team's possession play doesn't miss a beat.
Through 14 games, City have the best expected and actual goal differential in the league despite summer signee Kalvin Phillips playing just two Premier League minutes so far. They'll be fine without him, and Chelsea just need warm bodies in midfield at this point. Although they've really struggled under both Thomas Tuchel and Graham Potter this season, they theoretically have a ton of depth across the roster -- except in the center.
While Jorginho has started 11 games this season, N'Golo Kante has made just two. Mateo Kovacic, meanwhile, has only started five, and he's now coming off of a heavy minutes load as part of Croatia's deep run at the World Cup. The other midfielders on this roster aren't really midfielders, so Phillips basically gives Chelsea four options for the two midfield roles in Potter's system, which isn't wildly different from what Gareth Southgate used at Euro 2020, where Phillips was one of the team's standouts.
Liverpool sends midfielder Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain to Tottenham
I get it. Former Arsenal player goes to Tottenham, dude? However, in this world of self-imposed transactional restrictions, we have to make some people mad.
It's easy to forget, but four years ago, Ox looked like one of the best midfielders in the Premier League as Liverpool also made their first run to a Champions League final. Unfortunately, he just hasn't been the same since tearing an ACL in April 2018. And yet, he doesn't turn 30 until next summer, and we know age is just a number when we're talking about an Antonio Conte signing. Every move is a win-now move when he's your coach.
So why make this move? Hear me out for a second. Toward the end of his Arsenal career, Ox was lights out as a wingback for Arsene Wenger's side, driving play vertically up the wing with his passing and his ball carrying. Although he hasn't been able to fulfill the demands of a Klopp midfielder, we've seen so many down and nearly out Premier Leaguers turn into brilliant wingbacks under Conte.
The right wingback slot has been the weak point in the Spurs XI all season, and you're telling me that the guy who turned Victor Moses and Ashley Young into league-winning wingbacks couldn't do the same with a much more physically talented player like Oxlade-Chamberlain?
Of all the moves mentioned in this fake super trade, this is maybe the one I most want to see happen at some point. After all, he's out of contract at the end of this season.
Manchester United send midfielder Donny van de Beek to Liverpool
Just in case Ox-to-Spurs didn't cause a big enough riot, we're going to send the dude who played for both United and Everton to go and play at Anfield. Since Liverpool are sending out a player who's made 11 starts over the past three seasons, we can't be giving them a massive upgrade, so instead they get to be the third Premier League side to try to cash in the DVDB lottery ticket.
At first, you could blame the lack of playing time at United on Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's limitations as a manager on his unfulfilled expectations. Then, you could blame it on all the club-wide dysfunction that occurred last season -- first when Cristiano Ronaldo arrived and then when Ralf Rangnick became interim manager. Sure, van de Beek didn't light it up at Everton necessarily, but they were under another limited manager in Frank Lampard, and the team was in the midst of a relegation battle.
This season, van de Beek would be reunited with the guy who initially unlocked him at Ajax, and we'd finally get to see those Champions League performances translate to the Premier League ... right? Well, ETH has played van de Beek for a total of 87 minutes so far this season. If it can't even work with his former manager, then it's just probably not going to happen for him in England. You can't just keep blaming the coach, when coach after coach feels the same way. It never works for them ... but what if it works for Liverpool?
Ajax played a similarly open and high-pressing style to the one Klopp employs at Anfield, and if you squint hard enough, you can picture him making some of the similar off-ball movements that Jordan Henderson does in that right-central midfield role. There's not really much that van de Beek provides that the much younger trio of Fabio Carvalho, Harvey Elliott and Curtis Jones don't already do better, but he is a little bigger and he doesn't seem to need the ball as much as any of them do. Perhaps something would click under Klopp if van de Beek is allowed to just press and make runs into the penalty area?
At the very least, it's an extremely low-risk move, given who they're losing in the trade. Liverpool need more midfield depth and more midfield top-line talent, but there just aren't many quality midfielders just sitting around on the benches across the Big Six.
Chelsea sends forward Hakim Ziyech to Arsenal
The biggest downside/risk to Arsenal's title challenge was injury. They've genuinely been great, and while they're probably slightly fortunate to be ahead of City at this point in the season, their underlying numbers aren't that far back and they've already built a sizable five-point lead. It's just that they've been extremely reliant on a core of 10 players -- including summer arrivals William Saliba and Gabriel Jesus, who have played 99% and 97% of the Premier League minutes so far.
With Saliba and Jesus and the other eight guys on the field, they've surprisingly been a genuine title-challenger, but you typically can't run it like that for 38 consecutive games. And they're not going to be able to now that Jesus is out for at least a couple months with an injury picked up at the World Cup.
The temptation, I think, is to replace Jesus with another center-forward, but he's not really a center-forward in the first place. Sure, he's been listed there in all the starting XIs, but Jesus is involved in all aspects of attacking and defensive play for the Gunners. The other players who can do that, across the world, aren't center-forwards. Replace Jesus with a traditional striker -- one who stays centrally and makes runs into the box -- and it probably requires a significant rethink of how Arsenal play.
Instead, I think the move is to bring in another quality attacker wherever you can get him.
Ziyech, at 29, doesn't fit the age profile of any of the club's recent signings, but according to FiveThirtyEight, Arsenal have a 36% chance of winning the league this year. Although they have the youngest team in the league when weighted by minutes played, there's no guarantee their title odds will get that short again anytime soon. Manchester City and Haaland exist, while Liverpool seem likely to bounce back and Manchester United might finally have their money hose pointed, generally, in the right direction.
Although Ziyech hasn't ever nailed down a consistent starting spot at Chelsea, it's fair to say few other attackers have, either. When he does get minutes, he's a proven Premier League performer -- and with a five-point lead and 24 games still to go, Arsenal need one of those more than anything else.