UDINE, Italy -- Little seems to come easy to this Azzurri side, so if you buy the old trope about teams reflecting their coaches' personalities, then you cite Italy and the hardscrabble Gennaro Gattuso for evidence. As a player, he took a path to the World Cup that was bumpy, circuitous (via Glasgow, no less) and, occasionally, much like his team, but when he got there, he actually won it.
As improbable as it might sound right now, that has to be the goal for Italy. It's what -- after missing out on the last two World Cups -- they owe their fans and themselves. At a minimum.
Tuesday's 3-0 win over Israel secured Italy a place in the qualification playoffs for the 2026 World Cup. It's also possible they will qualify directly, though that's a bit like saying "it's possible Bad Bunny will do his Super Bowl halftime set in Mandarin" or "it's possible six-seven will become the Olympic motto." Group leaders Norway would need to drop points at home against Estonia (who haven't taken points off anyone other than Moldova) and lose to Italy in the final game. Or, if Norway do beat Estonia, Italy would need to make up a 16-goal difference in their final two games.
So yeah, we're talking "Twilight Zone."
Far more likely is Italy heading to the runner-up playoffs next March, where they'll face either Sweden, Northern Ireland, North Macedonia or Romania at home and then a TBD opponent in a one-game clash for a World Cup place.
Doable? Sure, but this is where angst and superstition set in.
Italy have failed to qualify for three World Cups in their history. Each time, they lost in the playoffs. Their opponents? North Macedonia in 2022, Sweden in 2018 and Northern Ireland in 1958. (If you really want to go there, Romania kept then-world champion Italy from qualifying for the 1984 Euros, too.)
So yeah, add that psychodrama to the mix. History doesn't necessarily repeat itself, but it often rhymes, as Mark Twain liked to say, and as Italian fans don't want to hear.
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That was only part of the reason things felt edgy Tuesday night for Israel's visit. The other was that the game was taking place in surreal conditions, partly reminiscent of the COVID-19 era, partly of an imminent invasion from within, complete with rooftop snipers, airport-style security and shuttered roads and businesses.
Events in Gaza had prompted general labor strikes and massive demonstrations throughout Italy in the previous weeks. The vast majority were peaceful, but on multiple occasions there had been clashes between police and protestors, with vandalism around the fringes. Having Israel come to town was the proverbial red flag, which is why the match was played in Udine -- a staid, wealthy city in the far northeast of Italy, the sort of place where folks listen to both riot police and people in fluorescent jackets. (Having a modern stadium next to a motorway on the edge of town was another plus from a policing perspective.)
Despite the fact that a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas had been announced a few days before kickoff, the authorities didn't want to take chances: A 10,000-strong pro-Palestine march was kept well away from the stadium and was largely peaceful, though a small group broke away from the demonstration and clashed with police, resulting in 15 arrests.
The game itself went off without a hitch, though the enhanced controls, rumors of protesters infiltrating the match-going public and the fact that many fans shared the view of the Udine mayor who turned down his invitation to the game ("it doesn't feel right, but I hope to one day host Israel vs. Palestine in my city") meant it wasn't the atmosphere you'd expect for a game of this importance.
As a result, barely a third of the ground was filled, and the crowd was muted enough that you could hear Gattuso bellowing at his players. Three individuals were arrested: one for waving a giant Palestinian flag during the Israeli anthem (the boos of a minority were soon drowned out by the applause of the crowd), the other two for trying to enter the pitch.
With the vibe set -- professional, no politics, let's get this over with -- attention turned to the pitch. Italy looked slow, Gianluigi Donnarumma had to make some big saves, and Mateo Retegui's penalty just before the half came as a liberation and quashed the murmurs. Retegui added another, before Gianluca Mancini's injury time header made it 3-0.
From there, Italy fans filed out into the night with a sense of relief, but also the knowledge that we've been here before and qualification still hangs by a thread. This side is good -- they're ranked 10th in the world by FIFA for a reason -- and the World Cup has been expanded to 48 teams. Logically, there's no reason to think a whole generation of Italian kids could be graduating from high school in a couple of years with zero memories of their country at a World Cup.
But it's football. It's not about logic; it's about performance, and tiebreakers, and random moments that divide ecstasy from depression. For better or worse, they've been here before. And they want no more Swedes, North Macedonians or men from Northern Ireland filling their nightmares.