LEVERKUSEN, Germany -- Bayern Munich might just win the UEFA Champions League. Anyone who's followed their season knows just how wild the notion seemed not that long ago -- heck, I feel weird even typing it. And since they'll win the Bundesliga too, barring an act of God -- they have an eight-point lead with nine games to go -- Vincent Kompany's debut season could see him achieve what only four managers in the history of the club have: triumph domestically and in Europe in the same year.
Scoffing at the notion of them winning it all? Scoff no more: the bookies aren't scoffing. Most have them as fourth-favorites to lift the trophy on May 31.
They'll face Inter in the quarterfinals, and if they advance, likely Barcelona in the semifinal. (If somehow it ends up being Borussia Dortmund, in the bottom half of the Bundesliga table, or Lille, fifth in Ligue 1 some 21 points back, even better.) Tough sides to be sure and I'm not certain they'd be favored in either tie right now, but both clubs are pitched in tightly contested domestic league battles, both are still in their domestic cups, and both are vulnerable.
Navigate past them to the final and sure, it could well be another juggernaut like Real Madrid/Atletico or Paris Saint-Germain in the final, but hey: the game is at Munich's AllianzArena, their house. That counts for something.
The reason it would be remarkable is despite their status as European blue bloods, Bayern Munich haven't passed the eye test for much of this season, and they have at times been one step away from murmurs and controversy.
It goes back to last season, when they failed to win the Bundesliga for the first time in 11 years. In the summer, they appointed Kompany, and while there is some debate over whether he was sixth, seventh, eighth or ninth choice, what's not in question is that Xabi Alonso, Julian Nagelsmann, Hans Flick, Ralf Rangnick and Zinedine Zidane all turned them down. (It's probable that Oliver Glasner, Erik ten Hag and Roberto De Zerbi said no, too, while a reported last-ditch attempt to get the man they fired, Thomas Tuchel, to stick around also fell flat.)
It's not a knock on Kompany, but more on his résumé: in his one season of Big Five top-flight football he got relegated and that's really all anyone focused on. To many fans, it was like when they were kids and coveted an Xbox for their birthday, but ended up with Settlers of Catan.
Then came a summer transfer campaign that (Michael Olise aside) was distinctly underwhelming. Defender Hiroki Ito rocked up injured and didn't actually play until February of this year, while João Palhinha (whose transfer fee was a whopping €51m) has been either injured or subpar most of the season. Two club cornerstones were free agents-to-be, and most thought their new deals would be wrapped up ahead of the new campaign. Nope: left back Alphonso Davies only put pen to paper last month, and they're still waiting for club vice-captain Joshua Kimmich to make up his mind to the point that some outlets in Germany are reporting that Bayern's contract offer is now off the table.
If you haven't followed Bayern this year, you might think that the possibility of the Bundesliga/Champions League double is the result of Kompany working wonders, of players stepping up and everything clicking together happily. Not really: they have only four more points than last year's terrible domestic campaign, their lead owing more to the futility of their opposition than anything else. Sure, Olise has been a spark, wunderkind Jamal Musiala has done wunderkind-type things (when not injured), and Harry Kane is still banging them in, but most of the rest of the squad has been inconsistent, injured or both.
Their Champions League form has mirrored this. In the league phase, they lost to Aston Villa, Barcelona and Feyenoord (the latter a 3-0 hammering to a team with an interim manager). In the playoff round, they needed an injury time strike to dispatch Celtic in a 1-1 home draw. In the round of 16, their 5-0 aggregate scoreline against Bayer Leverkusen this round looks gaudy until you remember the combination of individual blunders and Xabi Alonso's wacky lineup made things easy for them. You can count the number of impressive, signature wins against quality opponents on one hand.
All of this, to some degree, is normal in a transition season under a new coach, which is what this was supposed to be. It's just that you don't expect them to be less than 10 games from a double given these circumstances.
There's an air of impermanence to this side. Look at the team that won 2-0 at Leverkusen on Tuesday. Keeper Jonas Urbig has looked good, but he only gets to start next year if shark-jumping resident legend Manuel Neuer doesn't persuade the club to let him stick around. They have three right backs in the first-team squad, but instead rely upon Konrad Laimer, a recycled workmanlike midfielder, to fill the position. Kimmich, we've mentioned. Kane turns 32 in the summer. They've been trying to push midfielder Leon Goretzka out the door for the past two seasons, and yet there he is in the middle of the park, largely because promising youngster Aleksandar Pavlovic has struggled to stay fit and consistent.
And yet, guess who's getting the last laugh? Guess who gets to deride the perpetual underachievement of fellow footballing aristocrats Borussia Dortmund, Schalke and Hamburg (the latter two are in the second division) as well as Germany's ultimate nouveau riche clubs, RB Leipzig? Guess who -- despite being whitewashed when they met in the league and in the German Cup -- gets to ask: "Xabi who?"
That's right: it's Bayern.
Ale Moreno previews the Champions League quarterfinal matchup between Bayern Munich and Inter.
Does it speak to the paucity of the Bundesliga and the structural advantages the Bavarians enjoy? Is it just about randomness and variance in the Champions League? Maybe.
Or is Kompany actually a far better coach than we give him credit for, especially given he's working in difficult circumstances? Should we be showing Dayot Upamecano and Min-Jae Kim a little more respect, even though theirs is not exactly a Schwarzenbeck-Beckenbauer partnership, and when they screw up, they look especially bad?
Do the absurdly high standards in the club's Sabenerstrasse HQ make everyone look bad unless they win every single game 3-0? Possibly.
Either way, they've stumbled through much of the 2024-25 season and have a decent shot at a league-Champions League double. That's not nothing. Far from it.