Eight months is a long time. When the Premier League's season began on Aug. 16, Manchester City's Rodri had yet to tear his ACL, Barcelona's Raphinha was still seen as a relatively disappointing signing (as opposed to a potential 2025 Ballon d'Or winner), Kendrick Lamar's "Not Like Us" was about three months old, and the U.S. presidential election was still nearly three months away.
That feels like a millennium ago, but the single soccer season that has played out in that time has offered us countless plot twists, from Paris Saint-Germain's disappointing Champions League start, to Manchester City's early-season collapse, to Liverpool's winter dominance, to PSG's spring surge and so on. The teams that were great months ago aren't necessarily the ones that are great now.
So, with the season entering its home stretch -- the Champions League semifinals will be set after Wednesday, and both the Premier League's title and relegation races are about done already -- let's look at the most in-form teams of the moment.
Below are the top 15 teams in what I'm calling "adjusted goal differential" in all competitions since Feb. 16, exactly two months ago. Some of these teams still have lots to play for, others are simply playing out the string, and the amount of good fortune they're enjoying has varied significantly. Regardless, they're all playing pretty well at the moment.
What I'm calling "Adjusted Goal Differential" is a mix of 30% goal differential and 70% xG differential in 11v11 situations. Because of the inherent randomness of goals, incorporating both xG and actual goals is a good way of measuring shot quality while still accounting for finishing skill.
The list below isn't opponent-adjusted, and two months isn't a long enough time to generate a true, predictive sample. But a list such as this can still tell us who is in the best raw form right now. (It also pretty accurately tells us who the best team in Europe is at the moment. It's hard to dispute PSG's and their current levels of awesomeness, even if things got a little wobbly at Aston Villa.)
1. PSG
Past two months: 13 total matches, 33 points (2.54 PPG), +1.81 adjusted GD per game
Remaining stakes: Advanced to the Champions League semifinals (29.4% chance of winning the title, per ESPN BET), already clinched Ligue 1 title, advanced to the Coupe de France finals (vs. Reims)
This week, Ryan O'Hanlon had a story about star strikers and the ways they don't necessarily make their teams better. It was pretty good timing considering the seasons Real Madrid and PSG are having after Kylian Mbappé left the latter for the former.
Real Madrid are on pace to fall from 95 points to 81 in LaLiga play and need a Wednesday night miracle against Arsenal to keep their Champions League title defense alive. Meanwhile, PSG are back in the Champions League semis and are on pace to improve from 76 to 90 points in Ligue 1 play.
We obviously can't openly declare that Real Madrid and PSG are worse and better, respectively, because of Mbappe -- there are too many other factors going on with both teams. Real Madrid lost (and didn't directly replace) midfielder Toni Kroos to retirement and have, like many other big clubs, battled an epic run of injuries in 2024-25. PSG, meanwhile, haven't been bitten as hard by the injury bug and have benefited from the blossoming of youngsters Bradley Barcola and Désiré Doué. (They've also received excellent play from many extremely expensive players such as Ousmane Dembélé and Achraf Hakimi, as well as Tuesday hero -- who arrived as a free agent -- Gianluigi Donnarumma. Remember, this isn't much of a scrappy underdog tale.)
But regardless of how it happened, after a slow start to Champions League play -- here's your reminder that they finished only 15th in the league phase and had to play top-seeded Liverpool in the round of 16 -- PSG have been otherworldly over nearly five months now, and unless you want to make the case for Barcelona, it's hard to name anyone else the best team in Europe at the moment. They wobbled in front of an incredible crowd at Villa Park in Tuesday's Champions League loss and suffered only their second loss since Nov. 26. But they survived and advanced in the two-legged tie.
Only one team in the Big Five leagues has produced an adjusted goal differential higher than 1.3 per game in all competitions over the last two months. PSG is at 1.8.
This is a loaded team that has seen many players take their respective games up a notch in recent weeks and months. Barring an incredible comeback from Real Madrid against Arsenal on Wednesday, PSG will face the Gunners in the semifinals. But they'd be favored against either team.
2. AS Monaco
Past two months: 8 total matches, 14 points (1.75 PPG), +1.30 adjusted GD per game
Remaining stakes: Currently second in Ligue 1 (84.8% chance of top-four finish, per Opta)
With less to play for than most on this list, Monaco have been able to focus on the primary task: qualifying for next year's Champions League. A couple of unfortunate results -- 2-1 losses to Lille (in which they had a +1.2 xG differential) and Brest (+0.71) -- have prevented them from pulling away in that regard, but they remain second in France after Saturday's 3-0 pounding of Marseille.
Adi Hutter's squad has produced a negative xG differential in only one of its last eight matches, and an attack built around 22-year-old Mika Biereth (five goals and two assists from 10 chances created), 23-year-old Maghnes Akliouche (one goal and four assists from 12 chances) and veteran Takumi Minamino (four goals) has averaged 2.0 goals per game in this span. They are still in a tight race -- second and sixth place are separated by only three points -- and they still have to play fourth-place Lyon and sixth-place Strasbourg. Both matches are at home, at least, and their form in the principality (11 wins and two draws from 15 league games) is awfully strong.
3. Bayern Munich
Past two months: 11 total matches, 21 points (1.91 PPG), +1.29 adjusted GD per game
Remaining stakes: Advanced to the Champions League quarterfinals (trailing Inter Milan 2-1 after first leg), currently first in the Bundesliga (97.5% chance of winning the league, per Opta)
Good luck figuring out Bayern at the moment. A catastrophic run of defensive injuries to goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, center-backs Dayot Upamecano and Hiroki Ito and left-back Alphonso Davies -- plus, of course, attacking midfielder Jamal Musiala at the other end -- have contributed to a run of 11 goals allowed in seven matches, and certainly seemed to play a role in a 2-1 home loss to Inter last week. But they still produced a +1.5 xG differential against Inter and a +1.3 in their otherwise shocking 3-2 loss to VfL Bochum in early March.
Even after Saturday's fun 2-2 draw with Borussia Dortmund (+0.7 xGD) they're cruising to another Bundesliga title, leading a flagging Bayer Leverkusen by six points with five matches to play. If Harry Kane, Musiala, Leroy Sané and Michael Olise weren't all underachieving at the same time from a finishing perspective -- they've scored 13 goals from shots worth 17.3 xG in this two-month span -- they might be even more comfortably ahead of Leverkusen ... and they might be ahead of Inter as well, even with the injury issues.
4. Borussia Dortmund
Past two months: 12 total matches, 21 points (1.75 PPG), +1.09 adjusted GD per game
Remaining stakes: Currently eighth in the Bundesliga (7.6% chance of top-four finish and 41.0% chance of top-six finish, per Opta)
In terms of pure results, there are some underachievers on this list -- teams that have suffered disappointing results of late even with strong underlying numbers. You can see them in the chart above.
Borussia Dortmund might be the ultimate underachiever at the moment. Manager Niko Kovac has generated decent improvement since taking over at BVB on Feb. 2, but certain results have prevented them from any sort of major rebound in the Bundesliga table. They lost to Bochum, FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig by a combined 5-0 while attempting shots worth 6.9 xG; plus, against Barcelona in the Champions League quarterfinals, they produced a +1.1 xG differential over two matches, but turned shots worth 5.3 xG into only three goals to ultimately fall short.
Serhou Guirassy, an otherwise strong finisher who has had a nice season overall (25 goals and five assists in all competitions), has been the worst offender in terms of recent wayward finishing. He scored four goals in a 6-0 blowout of Union Berlin on Feb. 22, but has otherwise scored only five goals from shots worth 9.4 xG in this span.
After a run to last year's Champions League finals -- BVB advanced through three knockout rounds over PSV Eindhoven, Atlético Madrid and PSG despite a combined minus-5.4 xG differential -- the xG gods have come for comeuppance. Despite having the third-best xG differential in the Bundesliga in 2024-25, Borussia Dortmund are in eighth place and need to win their final five matches to have a chance of salvaging a Champions League bid for next season.
It might be possible if Guirassy's Tuesday hat trick against Barcelona (three goals from shots worth 3.1 xG) was a sign of things to come, and Maximilian Beier (five goals and three assists in these 12 games) continues his recent, bright play. But they probably will be settling for a Europa or Conference League berth at best, no matter how solid their underlying numbers are.
5. Barcelona
Past two months: 14 total matches, 35 points (2.50 PPG), +1.03 adjusted GD per game
Remaining stakes: Advanced to the Champions League semifinals (29.4% chance of winning, per ESPN BET), currently first in LaLiga (87.6% chance of winning the league, per Opta), advanced to the Copa del Rey final (vs. Real Madrid)
Ale Moreno says Barcelona will be in trouble in the next round of the Champions League unless they learn how to manage a game when leading.
Europe's most watchable team has also been one of its best in 2024-25. Despite being trounced 3-1 in Dortmund on Tuesday (xG differential: minus-3.4), bringing an end to a 24-match unbeaten streak -- and bumping them from second to fifth on this list -- Hansi Flick's side still advanced comfortably to the Champions League semifinals because of a 4-0 home win in the first leg. And while they haven't quite pulled away in the LaLiga race, they have opened up a four-point lead over Real Madrid with seven games left.
We occasionally get sustained glimpses at the downsides of Hansi Flick's aggressive play and absurdly high defensive line -- namely, a 4-4 Copa del Rey draw with Atlético Madrid and Tuesday's trip to Dortmund -- but the Barca attack is relentless and relentlessly entertaining, and the scoring combination of Robert Lewandowski and wingers Lamine Yamal and Raphinha (combined: 77 goals and 38 assists from 115 chances created in all competitions this season) continues to shine.
They'll be favored to reach their first Champions League final in a decade, and they're just dynamite to watch.
6. Lyon
Past two months: 11 total matches, 25 points (2.27 PPG), +0.86 adjusted GD per game
Remaining stakes: Advanced to the Europa League quarterfinals (tied 2-2 with Manchester United after first leg), currently fourth in Ligue 1 (69.6% chance of top-four finish, per Opta)
Lyon's 2024-25 season certainly hasn't been boring. They found out in November that they would be provisionally demoted from Ligue 1 because of financial mismanagement, and they fired manager Pierre Sage in favor of Paulo Fonseca ... who was soon given a nine-month suspension for a physical confrontation with a referee.
Somehow, despite all of this (and despite a January transfer ban), they've been fantastic of late, scoring 25 goals and pulling 21 points from their last nine league matches. Georges Mikautadze and Rayan Cherki have been just about the best scoring duo in Europe in this span (outside of Paris or Barcelona, anyway), combining for 11 goals and 13 assists from 46 chances created.
Lyon played PSG as well as anyone in the past two months in a 3-2 loss, and they were somewhat unfortunate to finish with a 2-2 draw against Manchester United (xG differential: +0.6) last week in Europa League play. They almost certainly must arrange for some player exits in the coming weeks to avoid further punishment and potential relegation, but hey, a lot of players have certainly increased their acquisition value of late, especially Cherki.
7. Chelsea
Past two months: 10 total matches, 20 points (2.00 PPG), +0.86 adjusted GD per game
Remaining stakes: Advanced to the Conference League quarterfinals (leading Legia Warsaw 3-0 after first leg), currently sixth in the Premier League (28.7% chance of top-five finish, 85.2% chance of top-seven finish per Opta)
Chelsea have been exhaustingly up and down this season, and it's still extremely fair to question the value of "Sign every semi-interesting 19-year-old on the planet!" as a squad-building philosophy. But despite a major run of nagging injuries and squad rotation -- in their past 10 matches only two players, midfielders Moisés Caicedo and Enzo Fernández, have played even 70% of all minutes -- they've lost only one of their past nine matches, and their appearance as the first English team on this list suggests their form is solid.
Enzo Maresca's side are heavy favorites to win the Conference League, and even with Sunday's costly and unfortunate draw against Ipswich Town (xG differential: +1.2), they still have a fighting chance of playing in next season's Champions League. With remaining matches against Liverpool, Newcastle and Nottingham Forest, among others, their Champions League odds should rise significantly if this recent form continues and produces solid results.
8. Real Betis
Past two months: 12 total matches, 26 points (2.17 PPG), +0.85 adjusted GD per game
Remaining stakes: Advanced to the Conference League quarterfinals (lead Jagiellonia Białystok 2-0 after first leg), currently sixth in LaLiga (1.5% chance of top-four finish and 89.8% chance of top-six finish, per Opta)
Since a 3-2 loss to Celta Vigo on Feb. 8, Real Betis have been, at worst, the second-best team in Spain. Sunday's 2-1 loss to Villarreal (xG differential: +0.1) dealt a major blow to their meager hopes of finishing in Spain's top four, but according to recent Opta projections, there's about a three-in-four chance that Spain gets the other bonus spot in next year's Champions League, and Betis still have a 12% chance of finishing in the top five. They probably won't get there, but considering they were 12th in the table only two months ago, this has been a stirring rise.
Betis have scored 23 goals in this 12-match sample. Adding Manchester United's Antony (two goals and four assists from 32 chances in this span) on loan seems to have unlocked the ageless Isco, who is always solid but has scored six goals with four assists from 37 chances created in his past 11 matches. That's pretty incredible even for him, and it has completely changed the complexion of this Seville club's season.
9. Manchester City
Past two months: 10 total matches, 17 points (1.70 PPG), +0.80 adjusted GD per game
Remaining stakes: Currently fifth in the Premier League (84.0% chance of top-five finish and 98.8% chance of top-seven finish, per Opta), advanced to the FA Cup semifinals (vs. Nottingham Forest)
Maybe The Guardian's Jonathan Wilson put it best in his weekly newsletter: Manchester City are "just another very good team" at the moment. Their run of four straight Premier League titles has come to an end, and the FA Cup is their only remaining chance at a trophy this season. (They also won the Community Shield in August, for whatever that's worth to you.)
Janusz Michalik takes a closer look at Manchester City's run-in and discusses whether or not we will see them playing in the Champions League next season.
Since emerging from a dreadful winter funk, they've alternated between dynamite and directionless in a way that is familiar for lots of clubs, but is unique for one led by Pep Guardiola.
Regardless, they've still been pretty strong of late. This two-month sample includes a 3-1 Champions League loss to Real Madrid and 2-0 defeat to Liverpool; in just their past eight matches, they've lost only once and produced an adjusted goal differential of +1.20 per game. With Erling Haaland injured for part of this eight-match span, they have gotten at least a pair of goals from four different players (Omar Marmoush, Haaland, Kevin De Bruyne and young fullback Nico O'Reilly) and at least two assists from three (De Bruyne, O'Reilly and Ilkay Gündogan). Transition defense remains an issue at times, but City's upside remains immense.
We got a solid reminder of both those things in Saturday's 5-2 blowout of Crystal Palace: Palace generated an early 2-0 lead and nearly made it 3-0 thanks to City's transition miscues, but then City scored five goals in 46 minutes and cruised while generating a +2.0 xG differential and a City-esque 67% possession rate.
10. Atalanta
Past two months: 8 total matches, 10 points (1.25 PPG), +0.79 adjusted GD per game
Remaining stakes: Currently third in Serie A (94.0% chance of top-four finish and 99.5% chance of top-six finish, per Opta)
No team in Europe so constantly proves its floor and its ceiling like Atalanta. Gian Piero Gasperini's squad has, in the past two months alone, a) walloped fourth-place Juventus and fifth-place (and otherwise torrid) Bologna by a combined 6-0 and b) suffered a scoreless three-match losing streak against first-place Inter, sixth-place Lazio and eighth-place Fiorentina.
The inconsistency has eliminated them from contention for the Serie A crown, but the upside has put them on this list and all but clinched a spot for them in next season's Champions League.
11. Bologna
Past two months: 9 total matches, 19 points (2.11 PPG), +0.75 adjusted GD per game
Remaining stakes: Currently fifth in Serie A (44.2% chance of top-four finish and 84.9% chance of top-six finish), advanced to the Coppa Italia semifinals (leading Empoli 3-0 after first leg)
Sunday's loss to Atalanta put a dent in Bologna's top-four hopes, but like Real Betis, this team has gone from somewhat directionless to fantastic over the past couple of months. They quickly bowed out of the Champions League in the fall and were in eighth place in Serie A at the end of November, but they outscored opponents 15-3 in a recent six-game unbeaten streak, set themselves up to reach the Coppa Italia finals -- and give themselves a chance to win the cup for the first time in 51 years -- with an easy first-leg win over Empoli.
Oh, and they severely damaged Napoli's Scudetto hopes with a 1-1 draw on April 7.
12. Newcastle United
Last two months: 8 total matches, 18 points (2.25 PPG), +0.72 adjusted GD per game
Remaining stakes: Currently fourth in the Premier League (83.7% chance of top-five finish and 99.1% chance of top-seven finish, per Opta)
Having already won their first trophy since 1969 (the League Cup), Newcastle are now trying to lock down another Champions League berth. They've looked mostly fantastic in a current five-game winning streak in all competitions, beating Liverpool in the League Cup final and, this past weekend, walloping Manchester United 4-1.
Alexander Isak has five goals and an assist in his past seven matches, wingers Jacob Murphy and Harvey Barnes are creating constant threats, and Bruno Guimarães and Tino Livramento are ball-progression machines. Everything's functioning as intended, though the home stretch -- home games against Crystal Palace and Chelsea, road trips to Aston Villa, Brighton and Arsenal -- is rough.
13. Crystal Palace
Past two months: 8 total matches, 19 points (2.38 PPG), +0.68 adjusted GD per game
Remaining stakes: Currently 12th in the Premier League (0.6% chance of top-seven finish, per Opta), advanced to the FA Cup semifinals (vs. Aston Villa)
You know Palace must have been playing well lately if they still made the list despite the blowout loss to City. The loss was a setback, but it was also their only setback in a span that otherwise included six wins and a draw in seven matches. Their +1.1 goal differential in this span is fifth best of any Big Five team, and their average of 0.22 xG per shot is both a) the highest of any team in the Big Five and b) not boosted at all by penalties.
Oliver Glasner's team is creating loads of quality attempts for lots of attackers, especially wingers Eberechi Eze and Ismaïla Sarr, who have combined for six goals and five assists in these matches.
Palace waited too long to get rolling -- they were winless in their first eight league matches and found themselves in 18th near the end of October -- and almost certainly won't reach a European competition unless they win the FA Cup. But make no mistake: This is one of England's best teams at the moment.
14. Brighton & Hove Albion
Past two months: 9 total matches, 15 points (1.67 PPG), +0.68 adjusted GD per game
Remaining stakes: Currently ninth in the Premier League (0.3% chance of a top-five finish and 7.9% chance of top-seven finish, per Opta)
Another team suffering from xG misfortune at the moment. Brighton have gone winless in their past five matches, with three draws and two losses despite a cumulative plus-2.4 xG differential. Their 2-2 draw with Leicester City on Saturday was one of the most unfortunate results of the season (xG differential: +2.4), and the setbacks have almost eliminated them from top-seven contention. But if they maintain their focus, they have only one remaining opponent that's actually playing for anything (Newcastle) and could still secure a solid top-10 finish.
Even with recent successes, that's nothing to scoff at for a club of Brighton's size.
15. Arsenal
Past two months: 10 total matches, 17 points (1.70 PPG), +0.65 adjusted GD per game
Remaining stakes: Advanced to the Champions League quarterfinals (leading Real Madrid 3-0 after first leg), currently second in the Premier League (0.2% chance of winning the league, 100.0% chance of top-five finish, per Opta)
Ian Darke explains why Arsenal's Myles Lewis-Skelly made his list of the top Premier League players of the season, and predicts an even brighter future for the young star.
Arsenal are currently giving us a flashback to the decade of the 2000s, when seemingly every season a team bounced between iffy league form and fantastic European form in the spring to take home the Champions League crown: Real Madrid in 2000 (fifth in LaLiga) and 2002 (third), Liverpool in 2005 (fifth in the Premier League), AC Milan in 2003 (third in Serie A) and 2007 (fourth), et cetera.
Granted, Arsenal are nearly guaranteed a second-place league finish, but they've alternated between frustrating and/or unfortunate play in the Premier League (only two wins in their past seven matches, albeit with a cumulative +4.0 xG differential) and dynamite and/or fortunate play in the Champions League (past three matches: +9 goal differential, +1.3 xG differential).
Barring a major Remontada for Real Madrid in the second leg of the Champions League quarterfinals on Wednesday, Arsenal will advance to their first semifinal in 16 years. They're still battling a number of injury issues, but the return of Bukayo Saka has provided a boost, and at this point I doubt the Gunners would mind if they continued to use all of their good bounces on European nights.
The rest of the Top 25
16. Napoli (1.71 PPG, +0.64 adjusted GD per game)
17. Aston Villa (2.33 PPG, +0.57 adjusted GD per game)
18. AC Milan (1.20 PPG, +0.57 adjusted GD per game)
19. Inter Milan (2.31 PPG, +0.57 adjusted GD per game)
20. Roma (2.36 PPG, +0.54 adjusted GD per game)
21. Liverpool (2.00 PPG, +0.53 adjusted GD per game)
22. Nice (1.38 PPG, +0.49 adjusted GD per game)
23. Real Madrid (1.92 PPG, +0.41 adjusted GD per game)
24. Celta Vigo (2.00 PPG, +0.40 adjusted GD per game)
25. Mallorca (1.50 PPG, +0.39 adjusted GD per game)