Good news, fans of teams not in a title race or relegation battle! The Premier League is overwhelmingly likely to win an extra Champions League place for next season.
As of now, only one of the seven English clubs participating in European competition this season has been eliminated. And that team is, uh, Manchester City? Spain is the only other country with six teams remaining, and it's guaranteed to lose at least one more this round after the two Madrid clubs drew each other for the round of 16 in the Champions League.
Meanwhile, Germany and Italy, the two countries that earned an extra eighth team for this season, are already down to four. And Germany, too, is guaranteed to lose another after Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich square off in the Champions League's round of 16.
The two extra Champions League spots are awarded based purely on how many wins and draws each country earns across all three European tournaments this season. English clubs have already earned the most points -- and they're in the best position to earn more points from here on out. This is why Opta's Nils Mackay projects there to be a 99.4% chance that the Premier League earns one of the extra Champions League places for 2025-26.
An extra place, then, means extra Premier League teams with realistic dreams of qualifying for next season's European Cup. With the title race looking like Liverpool's to lose, the race for the Champions League is where the real intrigue and excitement lie in the standings.
So, with 12 games remaining for most, let's take a look at the eight clubs that are in contention and break down why they will -- and why they won't -- be playing in the Champions League next season.
They're listed in ascending order, based on where they currently are in the table.
Aston Villa, Brighton and Fulham
Why they will qualify: Aston Villa just beat Chelsea this past weekend, and they still get to play Nottingham Forest, Manchester City, Newcastle and Bournemouth. Take care of business in all of those matches, and they're almost definitely in. Despite, you know, losing 7-0 to Forest, Brighton have the second-best non-penalty expected goal differential in 2025 -- after Liverpool. Keep the penalties in, and Fulham are second -- after Liverpool.
Why they won't qualify: I grouped these teams together because the reason is the same for all of them. They're all slightly above-average teams that aren't noticeably better than any of the teams ahead of them, and they all have to leapfrog at least three teams to finish in the top five.
Projections from analyst Simon Tinsley say there's an 18% chance that one of these teams manages to finish top five. Man City (91%), Forest (67%), Chelsea (50%), Newcastle (48%) and Bournemouth (25%) all have better odds by themselves.
Chelsea
Why they will qualify: Since the start of the season, Cole Palmer has been better than anyone else on any of these teams.
Among these eight clubs, Manchester City's Erling Haaland is the only player who has generated more non-penalty expected goals and expected goals assisted than Palmer: 19.5 to 18.8. (He's third among all players, behind Haaland and Liverpool's Mohamed Salah.)
But Palmer has made 83 progressive carries to Haaland's 17. He has played 150 progressive passes to Haaland's 16. And, he has received 135 progressive passes to Haaland's 98.
Palmer and Haaland have generated a roughly equivalent number of chances for themselves and their teammates. But Palmer has been involved in 368 progressive actions, compared to Haaland's 131.
When I put together a simple metric to identify the best attackers in the world earlier this year, Palmer ranked second, behind only Salah. A player like that can swing a tight race like this all on his own.
Enzo Maresca admits Chelsea are overreliant on Cole Palmer.
Why they won't qualify: Cole Palmer hasn't been that player in 2025. Since the start of the year, Palmer has two goals and zero assists.
Nearly 50 Premier League players have been involved in more goals than Palmer this year, and nearly 90 players have been involved in as many or more goals as Palmer this year. He's running cold, but his expected goals+assists total in 2025 is outside the top 10. Similarly, he's 10th in progressive passes for the season but outside the top 20 since the start of 2025.
Palmer seemed capable of winning matches all by himself for the first few months of the season. That's what you can do when you're doing everything -- scoring, creating, passing, dribbling, finding space -- at a world-class level. But whether it's due to Chelsea's growing injury list (especially the loss of striker Nicolas Jackson), fatigue or something else, Palmer has been a good player, rather than a great one, in 2025.
Without Palmer raising their floor, Chelsea have suffered. They've won the fewest points of all eight Champions League hopefuls since the start of the calendar year. They've won the same number of points as -- oh god, oh no, this can't be right, can it?
Yeah, they're even on points with Manchester United in 2025.
Bournemouth
Why they will qualify: Although they're only sixth in the standings, they've been the third-best team in the league through 26 matches. By a combination of 70% goals and 30% expected goals, only Arsenal and Liverpool have been better than Andoni Iraola's side so far this season:
In an era when managers increasingly want their teams to have "control" -- whether of space or the ball -- Bournemouth want utter chaos, and it's totally caught everyone off guard. Their matches feature the most possessions of any side in the league -- meaning the ball is constantly switching hands (feet?) -- and they allow the lowest opposition completion percentage in England.
Rather than systematically working the ball up the different levels of possession, the Cherries just bomb it long and run: only Everton average a longer distance per pass, and only Everton and Nottingham Forest play a higher percentage of their passes forward.
Why they won't qualify: Bournemouth have won seven penalties and conceded two -- the largest positive penalty margin in the league. That's a noisy statistic, something you can't rely on to continue. And if we pull out the penalties, they drop down to the fifth-best team in the league by the adjusted goal difference metric.
Fifth-best is still where you want to be if you want to finish top five -- and also, just, an incredible level for Bournemouth to reach -- but without the penalty buffer, there's less reason to believe they will outplay everyone else in the Champions League race over the final three months of the season.
Newcastle United
Why they will qualify: Across a just-over-10-game stretch, the most decisive individual factor is "player who scores goals," and Alexander Isak might be the best goal scorer in the Premier League right now.
Haaland might be the greatest goal scorer in Premier League history. Mohamed Salah might be the best attacker in Premier League history. And Isak is scoring non-penalty goals at a higher rate than both of them.
On the whole, Newcastle's attack hasn't been anything special this season. They're sixth in expected goals, and nine teams in the league attempt more shots than them. But Isak's performance alone has turned them into a team that has scored enough goals to currently occupy the fifth and (likely) final Champions League spot.
Why they won't qualify: The defense is league-average -- at best. Two seasons ago, Newcastle were arguably the strongest defensive team in the first division. Fast-forward to today and, uh, here's where that defense ranks by the blend of 70% goals and 30% expected goals:
Luckily for Eddie Howe & Co., Chelsea and Manchester City are not much better defensively. But those teams both have attacks that generate at least three more shots per game than Newcastle have so far this season.
If Isak doesn't maintain his current level, this team likely won't generate enough opportunities to keep winning enough points to stay in the top five.
Manchester City
Why they will qualify: They've turned it around -- kind of. Since Jan. 1, here's how the league shakes out by the blend of G (goals) and xG (expected goals):
Now, I'm not going to defend City's performances against Liverpool and Arsenal, but they probably weren't as bad as the scoreline suggested in either one. Plus, this metric includes games against both of those teams, in addition to Chelsea and Newcastle. The aggregates look better against a tough slate of opponents.
Now, they're still incredibly inconsistent. See: the Real Madrid matches and their complete inability to create anything remotely dangerous despite living in Liverpool's attacking third for nearly the entire game on Sunday.
But, given how much City spent to bring in new players in January, there's some reason to believe that their current level is somewhere between those post-Jan. 1 numbers and their seasonlong average.
Plus, it's Pep Guardiola! And even with all the injuries, he still has used the most expensive collection of players in the league. Plus, we're not asking City to win the league -- we're just asking them to be one of the five best teams in the Premier League. They have to be able to do that ... right?
Why they won't qualify: When they have to defend, they are genuinely one of the worst teams in the league. Here's how Man City stack up, when compared to the rest of the league for expected goals per shot allowed and expected goals allowed per opponent possession:
They are firmly ensconced in what we'll call the "quadrant of doom." No team in the league allows higher-quality shots than Manchester City, while only a couple of teams in the league allow more expected goals per opponent possession.
Of course, City aren't struggling like any of the other teams in that quadrant because their matches feature the fewest possessions in the league and they allow the fewest shots in the league.
When a team has that kind of extreme profile -- low volumes and high rates -- it's usually reasonable to ask if something tactical is out of whack. Maybe you cede a little bit of control to your opponents and it decreases their efficiency while opening up space for you on the attacking end and voila: your overall performance improves.
But no, I've spent a lot of time watching Manchester City's players trying to defend this season ... and they're terrible at all of it: pressing, transitions, defending deep, you name it. If you can find a way to create some transitions against City, you can score some goals -- no matter who you are.
Nottingham Forest
Why they will qualify: They already have a four-point lead on sixth. That might not seem like a lot, but it really is, especially at this point in the season.
Over 12 games, that's a third of a point per game. And over a full season, a third of a point per game is worth about 13 points. In other words, the gap in performance level needed to make up four points over the rest of the season is just a tiny bit smaller than the gap in performance level between Liverpool and Aston Villa last season.
Put another way, the best players in the league are worth somewhere in the 13-points-per-season range, if that. So, a four-point lead with 12 games to go is roughly equivalent to Forest being allowed to sign Kylian Mbappé for the rest of the season.
Forest's goal difference wasn't looking great at various points over the past month, but the 7-0 win over Brighton and the late comeback in the 4-3 loss to Newcastle have that number back in a respectable place (plus-11). So, it's not even a guarantee that Forest will lose that tiebreaker if someone manages to catch up to them.
Why they won't qualify: They're probably the worst team here, other than the one that they beat 7-0.
Yes, they're a classic defend-and-counter side. They're not trying to dominate possession or the shot count. No, they're trying to leave each game with more effective possessions and more dangerous shots than their opponents.
They concede more shots than they attempt. They're toward the bottom of the league for final-third possession. And they allow way more touches inside their own box than they generate on the other side.
It's worked -- full stop. This Forest team is so much better than anyone expected it would be. And it's worked at a Champions League level -- so far.
Despite the plus-11 goal differential, Forest's xG differential is just plus-3.9 -- or ninth best in the league. Both striker Chris Wood and goalkeeper Matz Sels are having outlier, career-year, goal-scoring and shot-stopping seasons in their 30s. They're turning shots into goals and saves at a way higher rate than they ever have before.
Among all of these teams, Forest would be my pick to win the fewest points from here on out. But with a four-point cushion, there's a good chance that won't even matter. They're better odds than a coin flip to qualify for the Champions League for the first time in over 40 years.