Two leagues will be rewarded with an extra place in next season's UEFA Champions League (UCL) based on performance in Europe this season.
Last season, Borussia Dortmund of the German Bundesliga and Bologna from Italian Serie A were the lucky recipients, with clubs in Germany and Italy outperforming those from England, France and Spain.
Now we've moving into the knockout rounds of the UCL, UEFA Europa League (UEL) and UEFA Conference League (UCoL) we're starting to get a clearer picture of the race this year.
The English Premier League is in a very dominant position, and it's looking excellent for the Spanish LaLiga too.
Here's how it works, and where all the leagues stand.
How does it work?
It's about the collective performance of all teams from each country taking part in Europe this season. The two leagues with the best average coefficient scores get an extra place.
Regardless of competition, each win is worth two coefficient points, a draw gets you one point, and you get nothing for a defeat.
If a match goes to extra time, the score after 120 minutes is used. So, penalties are not taken into account if the game is drawn, as they are used to determine the tie rather than the individual match.
The points gained by all clubs are added together, and that total score is divided by the number of clubs a country has in Europe in the season. That gives the coefficient average. For example, if a country has 60 coefficient points and seven teams in Europe, its score is 8.571 for the table (60 / 7).
The additional place goes to the first team in the league table outside the UCL places. So, in the Premier League it would go to fifth. It's a place on top of the regular allocation, so if a league usually has seven places in Europe, it will have eight next season.
So wins aren't worth more in the Champions League?
No, the coefficient system is essentially designed to assess the overall strength of leagues. Wins are the same in all competitions. Otherwise, it would be impossible for those leagues with few or no teams in the UCL group stage to move up the coefficient rankings.
However, clubs in the UCoL do play two fewer games in the league phase.
That said, a revamped bonus points system does give more weight to the UCL clubs. More on this further down the page.
Won't this just turn out to be extra places for two top leagues?
If we look back at the previous six seasons, England and Spain take seven of the 12 slots, with Italy and Germany two each. Only in 2021-22 did one of the countries with fewer than four teams in the Champions League (the Netherlands) finish in the top two of average coefficient.
History already told us that it's highly likely two of the top leagues will have five places in the Champions League. Now that's been strengthened by the extra bonus points in the UCL.
2023-24: Italy and Germany
2022-23: England and Italy
2021-22: England and the Netherlands
2020-21: England and Spain
2019-20: Spain and Germany
2018-19: England and Spain
How does the coefficient table look this season?
This is the top 10 as of Feb. 20.
1. England, 20.892 - (6/7)
2. Spain, 19.035 - (6/7)
3. Italy, 18.187 - (4/8)
4. Portugal, 16.050 - (2/5)
5. Germany, 16.046 - (4/8)
6. Belgium, 15.250 - (3/5)
7. France, 14.857 - (3/7)
8. Netherlands, 14.750 - (4/6)
9. Greece, 11.687 - (2/4)
10. Czechia, 10.350 - (1/5)
The brackets indicate how many of a league's original allocation are still active. For instance, 6/7 indicates one of a league's seven teams has been knocked out.
So, how is the race looking going into the knockout playoffs?
England and Spain are out in front and both still have six clubs remaining heading into the round of 16.
England in particular has a great buffer to third-placed Italy, which has only four teams remaining.
Germany and Netherlands probably have the best chance of mounting a late charge, but it's hard to see past the Premier League and LaLiga.
ENGLAND
Still active:
Arsenal (UCL)
Aston Villa (UCL)
Liverpool (UCL)
Manchester United (UEL)
Tottenham Hotspur (UEL)
Chelsea (UCoL)
The Premier League is in a place of incredible strength. Manchester City might have been knocked out by Real Madrid in the UCL playoffs, but all six other clubs went straight through to the round of 16.
The three remaining teams in the UCL are all in the same half of the bracket, while Aston Villa and Liverpool would meet in a potential quarterfinal -- which does limit the points available.
Added to that, Man United and Tottenham are paired in the Europa League, which means they cannot face each other until the final -- thus no prospect of knocking each other out. United take on Real Sociedad, and Spurs face AZ.
In the UCoL, Chelsea have a tricky looking tie against FC Copenhagen.
It would take an even worse collapse than last season to miss out on one of the extra places.
SPAIN
Still active:
Atlético Madrid (UCL)
Barcelona (UCL)
Real Madrid (UCL)
Athletic Club (UEL)
Real Sociedad (UEL)
Real Betis (UCoL)
Spain lost Girona in the UCL league phase, but it still has three teams active in the competition after Real Madrid made it through the playoffs.
That said, there is a Madrid derby in the round of 16, so Spain is sure to lose a team next month. Barcelona are in the opposite half of the UCL bracket.
Real Sociedad must get past Man United in the UEL while Athletic Club take on Roma.
In the UCoL, Real Betis take on Guimaraes.
Advantage Spain.
ITALY
Still active:
Internazionale (UCL)
Lazio (UEL)
AS Roma (UEL)
Fiorentina (UCoL)
It's been a terrible February for Italy, very similar to one round for England last season which cost the league an extra place.
After losing Bologna in the UCL league phase, AC Milan, Atalanta and Juventus went out in the knockout playoffs. Only Inter now remain in the UCL, where they take on Feyenoord.
AS Roma will have to knock out Athletic Club in the UEL for Italy to have a chance.
In the UCoL, Fiorentina take on Panathinaikos.
But it's starting to look like Italy won't hold onto a fifth place in the UCL.
PORTUGAL
Still active:
Benfica (UCL)
Guimaraes (UCoL)
Portugal has only two of its five teams remaining, with two lost in the knockout playoffs.
Benfica must face Barcelona in the UCL, which in the UCoL Guimaraes have drawn Real Betis.
We can forget Portugal from here.
GERMANY
Still active:
Bayer Leverkusen (UCL)
Bayern Munich (UCL)
Borussia Dortmund (UCL)
Eintracht Frankfurt (UEL)
It's been a poor campaign from the Bundesliga clubs, with four teams out already. But the knockout playoffs given them a glimmer of hope.
Unfortunately, Bayern and Leverkusen will meet in the UCL round of 16, so Germany will lose another team. Dortmund have a more favourable tie against Lille.
Eintracht Frankfurt take on Ajax in the UEL, but pulling it off from here would be a miracle.
BELGIUM
Still active:
Club Brugge (UCL)
Cercle Brugge (UCoL)
The knockout playoffs did not go well.
Club Brugge claimed a superb win at Atalanta to go through in the UCL playoffs, and they now play Villa.
Cercle Brugge will meet Jagiellonia Białystok in the UCoL.
It's over for Belgium with only the two Brugge clubs left.
FRANCE
Still active:
Lille (UCL)
Paris Saint-Germain (UCL)
Lyon (UEL)
France has just three of its seven teams remaining after Monaco lost to Benfica and Paris Saint-Germain eliminated fellow Ligue 1 side Brest in the UCL knockout playoffs.
PSG have a tough round-of-16 date against Liverpool, and would then play Atlético Madrid or Real Madrid. Lille take on Dortmund.
Lyon have a favourable draw against FSCB in the UEL round of 16, but the task was made much harder after the damage caused by Lens failing to make the league phase of the UCoL.
We can count them out.
Netherlands
Still active:
PSV Eindhoven (UCL)
Feyenoord Rotterdam (UCL)
Ajax Amsterdam (UEL)
AZ Alkmaar (UEL)
It might end up being a question of might have been for the Netherlands this season, as Go Ahead Eagles' failure to reach the league phase of the UCoL could be yet the difference between a top-two finish.
The Dutch still have four teams active -- and all were in the knockout playoffs which brings added points for results.
Feyenoord now face Inter, and PSV meet Arsenal, and they are in opposite halves of the bracket.
Ajax and AZ managed to get through in the UEL, but FC Twente went out to Bodo/Glimt.
Could the Eredivisie come on the blind side and challenge for second place? One problem ... Ajax (vs. Eintracht Frankfurt) and AZ (vs. Spurs) would play each other in a potential UEL quarterfinal and one has to be eliminated at that stage.
So, what about the new bonus points system?
This is where things changed, and performance in the UCL became much more valuable than the UEL, and likewise the UCoL.
Under the old system, the maximum bonus points for a club in the UCL was 12, and now it's 18 (+6). In the UEL it's up from eight to 10 (+2). In the UCoL, it has risen from four to six (+2).
Every club that participates in the UCL gets a minimum of six bonus points just for taking part (+4) in the league phase. In the UEL, you have to finish first to get six bonus points. In the UCoL, first place only gets you four points. There are no bonus in the UEL or UCoL if you finish outside the top 24, but there are in the UCL.
There are then bonus points for reaching each of the knockout rounds, again weighted by competition.
As well as those high bonus points in the UCL for position, the teams who finish in the top eight are guaranteed another 1.500 for reaching the round of 16.
There were no bonus points for participating in the knockout playoffs in February in any of the competitions, but you did get points for the result of each leg -- something which isn't available to the top eight. Results in the knockout playoffs counted to the league's overall coefficient, but not the individual club's.
Looking at the league phase, by winning the UCL league phase Liverpool earned 13.500 bonus points -- 12.000 for first place, and another 1.500 for getting to the round of 16. Arsenal added 13.000 bonus points for finishing third. Aston Villa, in eighth, added 11.750 while Man City, who were 22nd, could only supply 6.750 bonus points.
But the totals were much lower in the other two European competitions.
Manchester United (6.500) and Tottenham Hotspur (6.250) picked up much fewer bonus points in the UEL league phase than Man City in the UCL even though they finished third and fourth.
By comparison, Chelsea got only 4.500 bonus points even though they finished first in the UCoL league phase.
So that's an advantage for the leagues with five UCL teams?
Yes, and no.
While Serie A and the Bundesliga have five teams in the Champions League, they also have eight teams in Europe.
Every win and bonus point is, when averaged, worth less than it is for the other leagues. And if a few teams struggle, there's no chance of challenging for the top two.
Italian clubs had been holding up well until that horrendous knockout playoff round, and German teams have unperformed greatly even though they have three teams still in the top competition.
When do we usually find out who gets the extra places?
In many seasons it can be obvious in March, once we know which leagues have multiple teams through to the quarterfinals of the three European competitions.
Last season, Serie A clinched an extra berth on April 18, with the Bundesliga following on May 1. It looked like it was going to be closer, but terrible results for English clubs in the quarterfinals, losing four of its five remaining teams, effectively handed second place to Germany.
The way the Premier League is going, it might be earlier this time.
However, the 2019-20 season shows that it can go right down to the wire. Germany didn't overtake the Premier League for second place until Bayern Munich beat Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 in the final of the Champions League. If that's repeated this season, we wouldn't know which league gets the second additional spot until the UCL final on May 31.
It would leave two clubs in the domestic leagues praying for the right result in the final. In 2019-20, Bayer Leverkusen and Leicester City finished fifth in Germany and England respectively. Leverkusen would have needed Bayern to win the UCL final to get the place, while Leicester required Bayern to lose the match.
What's the maximum number of places in the UCL and in Europe?
Under the old system, a maximum of five clubs from one association could play in the Champions League. The cap has been removed and it will be possible for seven teams to get a place in the UCL: The top four, fifth through league performance in Europe, and the winners of the UCL and the UEL (if they do not finish in the top four).
It would also technically be possible, though highly unlikely, to have 11 teams in Europe: The usual allocation of seven, plus the extra Champions League place and the titleholders of all three European competitions.
How does the extra place affect the other league positions?
If we assume the extra spots will go to one of the top leagues, it means fifth place will enter the Champions League and it will have eight (rather than seven) places in Europe. Other European berths drop down a place.
Any season the Premier League gets it, the access will be:
Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, FA Cup winners
Conference League: Carabao Cup winners
If LaLiga, the Bundesliga or Serie A get it, the access will be:
Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, Cup winners
Conference League: 7
In all cases if a team win the domestic cup and finish in a European place in the league, the spots drop down one more place.
If a team win the UEL or UCL but don't qualify for the UCL domestically, that league would have six places in the UCL -- the five places to the leagues plus the UEL or UCL titleholders as an additional. The league would forfeit the domestic place earned by the titleholders.
Last season, if Borussia Dortmund had won the Champions League, Germany would have had six teams (the top six) in the UCL but only one in the UEL -- losing the spot earned by Dortmund.
If a country gets the performance spot, and one of its teams finishes eighth and wins a European trophy, ninth can get a place in the UCoL.
What does the Carabao Cup final mean for the Premier League?
This is how it works if England does get one of the extra UCL spots.
If Liverpool win the Carabao Cup, the place will transfer to the league.
The same applies if Newcastle lift the trophy and finish in the top six.
Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, FA Cup winners
Conference League: 7
If Newcastle win the Carabao Cup and finish outside the top six, this is how it looks:
Champions League: 1-5
Europa League: 6, FA Cup winners
Conference League: Newcastle United
The Carabao Cup final takes place on March 16.
Similarly, if the FA Cup winners finish in the top six, that UEL place transfers to the seventh in the league and places drop down one. We're some way from find out about that, however, with the final in May.
Which teams would benefit right now?
Right now, AFC Bournemouth are fifth in the Premier League, with Lazio holding that spot in Serie A.