With the calendar ticking over to 2024, we are now officially in "second half of the season" territory. You know what that means: the stretch. The long turn towards home. The business end. While most of Europe's biggest leagues tend to have separated the wheat from the chaff by the midway point, with elite teams accruing points cushions at the top and just a handful of surprising results between now and the end of May before the usual title winners are crowned, this season feels different.
The Premier League feels wide open, with no breakaway club and Man City looking as vulnerable as they ever have under manager Pep Guardiola. The Bundesliga is being dominated by one team -- and they're not named Bayern Munich. LaLiga's typical three-team hegemony among Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid has been upset by ... Girona. Oh, and Paris Saint-Germain look far from comfortable in France's Ligue 1, while Inter Milan have been Italy's driving force in Serie A.
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Things could end in expected fashion across all five leagues, but we could also be facing the most exciting title races we've had in years. So let's look across the landscape, surveying the state of things now, how we got here, and how the numbers project each league finishing in the spring.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
League leaders: Liverpool (42 points from 19 games)
Champions League qualification: Aston Villa (42 from 20), Man City (40 from 19), Arsenal (40 from 20)
Europa League qualification: Tottenham (39 from 20)
Relegation: Luton Town (15 from 19), Burnley (11 from 20), Sheffield United (9 from 20)
Do we have a big title race in England's top flight?
The Premier League has a title race! It may even involve five teams, but the pack of clubs involved has bunched closer together during the Christmas period, and the only side to truly benefit has been Manchester City.
With City flying to Saudi Arabia in mid-December to compete for (and ultimately win) the FIFA Club World Cup in the midst of a run of one win in six league games, Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa all had the chance to open up a double-digit lead over Pep Guardiola's side during their absence in the Middle East. But they all failed. Each of the top three dropped points while City were away, missing the opportunity to build the kind of advantage required to give themselves a genuine chance of holding off what has now become an annual City surge in the second half of the season.
Yet there is no doubt that this season's title race is the most competitive it has been for many years. With Tottenham also still in contention, the Premier League trophy can be won by any of the top five if they hit on a run of winning form in the weeks ahead.
The Gab and Juls duo pick their Premier League player of the half season, who surprised them the most and their biggest disappointment.
Even though City are the masters of getting stronger as the season progresses, their opponents have shown a greater readiness to attack them this season, with defeats against Wolves and Aston Villa, as well as an uncharacteristic home draw vs. Crystal Palace. It's also likely that Guardiola's team will drop more points this time around, especially if Erling Haaland's foot injury continues to sideline the prolific forward.
City are the favourites, but Arsenal, Liverpool, Villa and Spurs have all taken points off them. If the same happens in the second half, we are set for a thrilling title race. -- Mark Ogden
Projections: The numbers agree Man City are vulnerable ... to a point
One of the most quietly interesting stories of the season happened when Opta's football projections recently dropped Manchester City's Premier League title odds under 50%. We've seen plenty of instances through the recent years in which a challenger gets hot and potentially takes the lead in the table; we all wonder how legit the challenge is, and then you look up the projections and see that City's odds are still at 75% or something. That wasn't the case as recently as last week. It had become pretty clear that, with their injuries and shaky form, City was in a serious fight. They were still the favorites, but in the battle of City vs. the field, the field (mainly Arsenal and Liverpool) had a greater than 50% chance of preventing a fourth title in a row for Pep Guardiola's side.
That might still be the case. But Arsenal's very, very bad week shifted things back in City's favor. With losses of 2-0 to West Ham and 2-1 to Fulham, the Gunners saw their title odds plummet from 27% to 5%. One week did that! And City absorbed all that loss: Their own odds rose from 44% to 64%. That's how slim your margin for error is with this club in this era. They still have Erling Haaland, Rodri, Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva, Julián Álvarez, Jack Grealish, Jérémy Doku and all those huge center-backs, they could soon have Kevin De Bruyne back at full strength -- he was back on the bench this past weekend, though he didn't play -- and all it takes is one bad week for your challenge to fall apart.
Liverpool's doing what it can to keep up (the Reds still have a 28% title chance), but if they falter at all, we'll shift all of our focus to a potentially messy top-four or, assuming the Premier League nabs one of the extra Champions League bids, top-five battle. City (99.9% chance at top five), Liverpool (99.4%), Arsenal (94.6%) and Aston Villa (89.0%) are well-positioned in that race, and taking 12 points from their last five matches has improved Tottenham's odds as well (64.7%). But wins over Manchester United and Arsenal have given West Ham's odds a charge (26.1%), and it's not over yet for Newcastle (6.7%) either. -- Bill Connelly
SPANISH LALIGA
League leaders: Real Madrid (45 points from 18 games)
Champions League qualification: Girona (45 from 18), Atletico Madrid (38 from 18), Barcelona (38 from 18)
Europa League qualification: Athletic Club (35 from 18)
Europa Conference League qualification: Real Sociedad (31 from 18)
Relegation: Celta Vigo (13 from 18), Granada (8 from 18), Almeria (5 from 18)
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens make their picks of the German Bundesliga player of the half season, who surprised them and their biggest disappointment.
What's the deal with Barcelona?
Barcelona's defence of the LaLiga title has not gone to plan. They begin the new year fourth in the table, seven points adrift of joint-leaders Real Madrid and Girona, and with coach Xavi Hernández saying they need to be more solid in defence and more clinical in attack.
After winning the league last season by being more resolute than remarkable, this season was supposed to see Barca take strides forward in terms of style. However, they have struggled to finish teams off and their attempts to evolve with the ball have created problems at the back. Through 18 games, they have already conceded more goals (21) than they did in all 38 games last term (20).
In the final third, meanwhile, no team in Europe's big five leagues spurn more chances. Barça's 34 league goals have come from an Expected Goals (xG) tally of 41.38, a difference of -7.38. To put that in context, Girona (+7.86), Madrid (+7.12) and Atlético Madrid (+4.95) are all outperforming their xG significantly; Robert Lewandowski, eight goals from an xG of 11.66, has been the biggest offender.
Xavi may seek some solace from the fact his team are at least creating chances, and the January arrival of Vitor Roque could also help in that regard. The Brazilian striker has been signed to add goals to the team, provide competition for Lewandowski and, in theory, be the long-term replacement for the aging Poland international. -- Marsden
How about Real Madrid?
Real Madrid's season has gone just about as well as anybody could have expected, given the scale of the injury crisis they've faced. A late 1-0 win at Alavés on Dec. 21 -- after Girona drew 1-1 at Real Betis that same day -- meant Madrid were top at Christmas, albeit level on points with Girona.
The team lost Thibaut Courtois -- arguably the league's best goalkeeper -- to an ACL tear in August, before Éder Militão, their best defender, suffered the same injury days later. Neither will be back until the season's final stages. David Alaba picked up yet another ACL tear in mid-December, prompting coach Carlo Ancelotti to say he'd never seen so many in such a short time.
Fortunately, in Militao and Alaba's absence, Antonio Rüdiger is in the best form of his Real Madrid career. It's not clear who'll partner him in Madrid's first game of 2024, against Real Mallorca, with the only other centre-back in the squad, Nacho, suspended.
A likely candidate is midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni. His recovery from a broken toe is the first of what should be a series of welcome reinforcements for the new year. The returns of Eduardo Camavinga, Arda Güler and Vinícius Júnior are all imminent, while the news of Ancelotti's contract extension on Dec. 29 will also give the squad an emotional boost, given the intensity of links to the Brazil national team job.
Camavinga and Vinícius are both expected to be available for Madrid's Spanish Supercopa semifinal with Atletico in Saudi Arabia on Jan. 10, and the long wait to finally see Guler in a Real Madrid shirt should be reaching its conclusion. The much-hyped teenager is yet to make his debut after suffering one injury after another since signing last summer. -- Alex Kirkland
Projections: It's Real's title to lose?
Real Madrid are impossibly banged up. Barcelona are flighty and pretty injury-prone. Atletico Madrid are more volatile than usual, capable of beating a solid Rayo Vallecano by a touchdown but losing to Las Palmas (by a little) and Valencia (by a lot). It is the perfect moment for a usurper to barge through the door and become the first team outside of that royal trifecta to win the league in 20 years, and Girona are trying as hard as they can to be that team.
They stockpiled points during a light early schedule and have lost only to Real Madrid to date, and as the schedule has stiffened, they've responded well, drawing with Athletic Club and Real Betis, and nabbing an historic 4-2 win at Barcelona. At the near-midpoint of the season, they are tied with Real Madrid atop the table, second only due to goal differential, and they're seven points ahead of Barca and Atleti.
The numbers ... are not yet believers. Opta's power ratings currently give Real Madrid a 90% chance of winning the title. Girona's lead on the rest of the field gives them the inside track on second place -- they've got a 44% chance of a top-two finish, compared to 30% for Atletico and 25% for Barca. But Girona still grade out as only the fifth-best team in the league per Opta, behind the big three and Real Sociedad. To have a serious title chance, they probably needed to build a lead on Real Madrid, too, but their knack of getting late game winners -- four this season in LaLiga, against Alaves, Barca, Getafe and Celta Vigo, all after the 80th minute -- prevented that from happening.
Still, Girona's odds of a top-four finish are astronomical. Opta gives them an 89% chance of finishing in that range, compared to 84% for Atleti, 82% for Barca and, perhaps most importantly, 24% for Real Sociedad and 20% for Athletic Club.
A title is probably too much to ask for, but Girona are still in incredible shape for an incredibly high finish. -- Connelly
GERMAN BUNDESLIGA
League leaders: Bayer Leverkusen (42 points from 16 games)
Champions League qualification: Bayern Munich (38 from 15), VfB Stuttgart (34 from 16), RB Leipzig (33 from 16)
Europa League qualification: Borussia Dortmund (32 from 16)
Relegation: Mainz (10 from 16), Koln (10 from 16), Darmstadt (10 from 16)
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens make their picks of the French Ligue 1 player of the half season, who's surprised so far and their biggest disappointment.
Can Bayer Leverkusen really pull this off?
Undefeated through the first 16 matchdays, Bayer Leverkusen have etched a new Bundesliga record and are relishing their Christmas break atop the league standings, leading Bayern Munich by four points, albeit with a game in hand for the perennial champions. Under the guidance of coach Xabi Alonso, the prospect of Leverkusen securing their maiden German league title is no longer such a far-fetched notion.
Alonso is undoubtedly the linchpin behind Leverkusen's transformation into a formidable, possession-driven force that smother opponents. The 42-year-old emphasizes the absence of a margin for decline among his players, asserting that "if we drop our level a little bit, we have no chance." The challenge ahead for the remaining 18 games will be maintaining the relentless form displayed in the previous 16 and navigating the overtures of rival clubs during the January transfer window.
Doubters highlighted Victor Boniface's absence during the Africa Cup of Nations and the potential impact on Leverkusen's attacking prowess without their top striker, who has scored 16 goals in 22 games across all competitions this season. However, Patrik Schick's return in late November from injury showcased the Czechia international's sharpness, netting six goals in seven games, including a hat trick against Bochum in the final match before Christmas.
Alonso has often relied on a core group of 14 or 15 players, particularly in matches against stronger opposition. However, trusting a few benchwarmers will be crucial in maintaining the team's freshness.
Bayern eked out their 33rd domestic championship win in May following a close title race with Borussia Dortmund. This year, it is Leverkusen who pose a serious challenge to the record champions. Speculation linking Leverkusen's defender Jonathan Tah with Bayern was swiftly quashed by sporting director Simon Rolfes, ensuring undisturbed focus for Leverkusen ahead of the Bundesliga's mid-January restart.
The "Neverkusen" label took root around the club due to their Bundesliga near-misses and the painful defeat in the 2002 UEFA Champions League final. While remnants of such skepticism linger, Alonso, a winner throughout his professional football career, exudes confidence that they can forever alter that narrative. -- Constantin Eckner
Projections: Leverkusen are far from safe
The last German team to begin the season with 24 matches without a defeat was Hamburg in 1982-83. That team not only won the Bundesliga, but also toppled Juventus to win the European Cup. Good team.
And yet, Bayer Leverkusen have begun the season in even better form. Their 4-0 win over Bochum on Dec. 20 was their 25th game of the season and their 25th without a defeat. They drew with three of the top five teams in the Bundesliga (Bayern, Dortmund and Stuttgart), and they've beaten every other team to cross their path in either league play, the DFB Pokal or the Europa League. And it's not like they're needing late-game heroics or anything, either: across these 25 matches, they've outscored opponents by a combined 81-18.
All of this success has earned them ... just a four-point lead over Bayern, and the Bavarians have a game in hand, too. The 11-time defending German champions have lost just twice in all competitions and once in league play, and they're on pace for their best league points total since the Pep Guardiola era. That probably means a 12th straight Bayern title is likely -- Opta certainly thinks so, giving Bayern a 69% shot at the crown -- but until Leverkusen actually lose matches, an incredible title race will continue.
The top-four race is equally interesting because of another upstart, as Stuttgart's brilliant start is making things awfully uncomfortable for top-four stalwarts RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund. The Swabians entered the winter break in third place, and Opta gives them a coin toss' chance at finishing ahead of one or the other.
RB Leipzig currently have a 92% chance of a top-four finish, but Stuttgart's odds (55%) are slightly better than BVB's (49%). And if you saw their two resounding wins over Borussia Dortmund -- one in league play, one in the DFB-Pokal -- you wouldn't be too surprised by that. -- Connelly
FRENCH LIGUE 1
League leaders: Paris Saint-Germain (40 points from 17 games)
Champions League qualification: Nice (35 from 17), Monaco (33 from 17), Brest (31 from 17)
Europa League qualification: Lille (28 from 17)
Europa Conference League qualification: Marseille (27 from 17)
Relegation play-off: Toulouse (14 from 17)
Relegation: Lorient (12 from 17), Clermont (11 from 17)
The Gab and Juls duo react to Juventus and Cristiano Ronaldo's lawyers final statements over 19.5m euro bonus dispute.
Like a mirage in the Sahara, it felt like we might see something unique: a very exciting season at the top of Ligue 1. That was a few weeks ago, when Adi Hutter's Monaco were flying, playing the best attacking football in the land, and Francesco Farioli's Nice boasted the best defence in the world. At the time, Luis Enrique's PSG were stuttering at times, dropping points at Clermont (0-0) and struggling to play to their potential.
Alas, the Parisians spent Christmas and the New Year as the league leaders once more, opening a five-point lead over Nice and seven over Monaco with a much better goal difference (+28, against +10 and +11). PSG have only lost one game in 17 so far in Ligue 1, at home against Nice (3-2), while they destroyed Monaco (5-2) and Marseille (4-0) at the Parc des Princes.
However, all is not lost for the chasing pack. We know PSG are capable of dropping their level at any time and have plenty of lapses in concentration, like in the final minutes of the Lille game in mid-December when they conceded an equaliser in the 94th minute. Also, they will have play their biggest rivals away from home in the second half of the season, with trips to Marseille (currently sixth), Nice, Monaco and also Lens (7th), who pushed them all the way last season and finished second by a point.
There will be tricky games for PSG, especially if they go far in the Champions League (their round-of-16 first leg against Real Sociedad is on Feb. 14), but Nice and Monaco will have to be perfect in their second half of the season to make it interesting. No more silly points dropped, no more disappointing performances like at Lorient or Le Havre.
Neither side being in European competition will help them focus, and the gap at the moment is not too bad, but there is no room for error. If things slip, we could be facing another very one-sided title race. -- Julien Laurens
Projections: Expect PSG to cruise again
We've been here before, in this weird state of simply counting down the days until the top club in France claims their latest domestic crown. Unsurprisingly, the numbers show it as well, with PSG having a 95.2% chance of winning Ligue 1 and continuing their incredible run. We might still see some typical dips over the coming months, especially if Luis Enrique's side are tangled up in the Champions League -- they face Real Sociedad, which is not the worst draw, in the round of 16 -- but everyone else is playing for second place.
On that front, Nice (38.7%) have a cushion over Monaco (28.4%) by virtue of a rock-solid defence and a 1-0 win at Monaco earlier in the season, but from there, Lille and Marseille (8.4%) are fancied to challenge and even leapfrog early wonders Brest for a top-four finish. -- Tyler
ITALIAN SERIE A
League leaders: Inter Milan (45 points from 18 games)
Champions League qualification: Juventus (43 from 18), AC Milan (36 from 18), Fiorentina (33 from 18)
Europa League qualification: Bologna (31 from 18)
Europa Conference League qualification: Atalanta (29 from 18)
Relegation: Cagliari (14 from 18), Empoli (13 from 18), Salernitana (12 from 18)
How Inter took over
Nothing at Inter is easy these days. With the threat of financial ruin as owners Suning grapple with Financial Fair Play and loan repayments, the challenge of remaining competitive while letting every top star go during the transfer window in order to be solvent would crush most managers and most teams. Not so for this Inter side or for their ebullient coach, Simone Inzaghi.
Under Inzaghi's tutelage and keen tactics, Inter have not only weathered the steady siphoning of talent, but they have thrived, riding a number of new arrivals and unheralded veterans to just one defeat in 17 Serie A games.
Out went the likes of goalkeeper André Onana (to Man United), defender Robin Gosens (to Union Berlin), midfielder Marcelo Brozovic (Al Nassr) and forward Edin Dzeko (Fenerbahce), as well as the botched "return" of Romelu Lukaku, who eventually ended up with Jose Mourinho at AS Roma on loan from Chelsea. In came dynamic forward Marcus Thuram as a free agent -- seriously, how did nobody else see this? -- and established role players like Benjamin Pavard, Alexis Sánchez, Juan Cuadrado, Francesco Acerbi and Yann Sommer, and the results have been brilliant alchemy.
Nicolo Barella's brilliant form in midfield has allowed aging stars like Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Henrikh Mkhitaryan to focus their energies at the attacking end, while Thuram has fused to excellent effect with Lautaro Martínez up front -- the pair contributing 25 of the club's 41 goals so far in Serie A. Consistency has been important, too: Fourteen players have more than 1,000 league minutes thus far, speaking to the steadiness of Inzaghi's selections and his use of subs to keep his first team fresh.
And the results, too! How about their biggest win over Milan since 1974, with a 5-1 rout against all odds? Or a 3-0 romp at Napoli (on 2.69 xG) in December? How about wins at Lazio and Atalanta, or a dogged 1-1 draw at Juventus, one of their only blemishes this season?
Now comes the trick of doing it all again after the new year. -- Tyler
Projections: Inter seem certain
Inter have done everything they can to remove all drama from this season's Scudetto race. Simone Inzaghi's Nerazzurri have dropped just seven points in 17 league matches, losing to Sassuolo at home (somehow), drawing with second-place Juventus and fourth-place Bologna, but sweeping 14 other matches by a combined 37-2. Even including Champions League play, no one has scored on them in December, and even with Juve lingering just four points back, Opta's projections currently give Inter an 82% chance at the title.
Luckily, the race for the top four packs plenty of uncertainty. Even with Inter (100% chance of a top-four finish) and Juve (99.4%) snagging two of the spots, Opta gives seven other teams at least an 8% chance at one of the other two. AC Milan (84.8%) is in good shape, but Fiorentina (37.3%), Napoli (26.9%), Atalanta (17.8%), Bologna (14.7%), Lazio (9.2%) and Roma (8.7%) will all have something to say about how this plays out.That's a delightful mix of stalwarts and, especially in the case of Thiago Motta's stingy but possession-hungry Bologna squad, intriguing upstarts.
The Rossoblu haven't finished higher than ninth in Serie A since 2002 and haven't played in Europe since the 1999-2000 UEFA Cup. Not only should their drought end this season, but there's also a solid chance they end up playing in Europe's biggest competition. -- Connelly