After shaking off a loss to Lithuania in group play and routing Italy in the quarterfinals, the United States was on the wrong end of a pair of close games in the medal rounds at the 2023 FIBA World Cup. On Friday, Team USA fell 113-111 to eventual champion Germany in a thrilling semifinal before Canada outlasted the U.S. 127-118 in overtime Sunday to win bronze.
With the final of the 2024 Paris Olympics a little more than 10 months away, Team USA can look forward to putting what will likely be a more star-studded roster on the court (including the likes of LeBron James perhaps?) Still, in order to win a fifth consecutive Olympic gold, USA Basketball leadership must learn from the painful lessons provided by three losses in this year's World Cup.
Let's break down the ugly numbers highlighting the U.S. shortcomings, as well as the history of the USA in the professional era, to better understand why this year's group fell short in the Philippines and how they can avoid a repeat with more eyes on them next year in Paris.
Star talent still wins
In the wake of the USA getting beaten in the 2004 Athens Olympics for the first time since NBA players were allowed to participate, there was briefly a movement for USA Basketball to focus on "fit" and pick more specialists rather than the ball-dominant stars who had made up previous teams.
Sure, there was a nod to this with the selection of Tayshaun Prince in 2008, but the "Redeem Team" and the 2012 sequel mostly overwhelmed opponents with sheer Hall of Fame talent. Performance in the previous NBA season remains a strong, though not perfect, predictor of USA Basketball success.
In that regard, it shouldn't be surprising that this year's World Cup squad fell short. Only the 2019 World Cup team, which finished seventh, had fewer combined wins above replacement player (WARP) by my metric the season before representing the U.S. in a major international competition.
Team USA still featured the most talented roster in the competition by far. Germany sent it to the bronze-medal game in the semifinals and then won gold with just four current NBA players, none of them All-Stars. But given how much more other national teams -- with the notable exception of Canada -- benefit from familiarity with international rules and continuity, the U.S. has typically needed a massive advantage.
The good news for the USA, from that standpoint, is next year's roster should be more talented. Only in 2004 has the U.S. Olympic roster featured fewer WARP than the previous World Cup squad, and that came after the U.S. hosted the 2002 competition (then known as the World Championship). The Paris Games should draw something much closer to the best players the U.S. has to offer, and that alone might be enough to return to the podium.
Where was the defense?
The biggest reason for concern that talent alone won't save Team USA is the way the defense collapsed in its three losses. Over the course of the World Cup, the United States posted the third-best defensive rating, allowing an estimated 103.4 points per 100 possessions.
That overall figure masks an enormous gulf between how the U.S. dominated outmatched foes and struggled to stop legitimate contenders. In five wins, the USA's defensive rating was 83.2 points allowed per 100 possessions. In three losses, that ballooned to a 136.7 defensive rating. The estimated 144 points per 100 possessions Germany scored against the U.S. was the fifth most efficient offense for any team in any game during the World Cup.
Remarkably, the USA offense was actually more efficient in the three losses than the five wins despite not getting nearly as many opportunities to run off turnover and defensive rebounds. Yet it still wasn't enough because the U.S. could not get the necessary stops.
The USA defense broke down at every level, but most notably by allowing opponents to shoot an effective 63% from the field after accounting for the additional value of 3-point shots (up from 42% in wins) and rebounding just 62% of available opponent missed shots, down from 75% in wins. Both of those issues point toward a lack of functional size on the U.S. roster.
Small ball got too small
It's no secret Team USA's small stature was an issue against the physical frontcourts of Lithuania and Germany, but I think attention on the center position has been misguided. Based off the success of playing switch-heavy lineups with Bam Adebayo and Draymond Green at center during the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, the U.S. decided to play with a pair of players who are primarily power forwards in the NBA, reigning Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. (who also sees regular time at center with the Memphis Grizzlies) and Paolo Banchero.
It's worth remembering, however, that the USA's "small-ball" lineups in the Olympics typically featured Kevin Durant, who's listed at 6-foot-10, and often 6-8 Jayson Tatum. Brandon Ingram and Cam Johnson, both 6-8, were the biggest players the USA played regularly at power forward, and the starting lineup featured just one player taller than 6-6 after Josh Hart (6-5) replaced the ineffective Ingram in that role.
When the U.S. switched pick-and-rolls, that typically meant a massive size disadvantage for the perimeter player switching on to a big, forcing the USA to front the post or send double-team help. That, in turn, created open looks against double-teams and opportunities on the offensive glass against fronts. In the medal rounds, the U.S. was far more effective with 6-5 Tyrese Haliburton at point guard rather than 6-2 Jalen Brunson. The USA outscored Germany and Canada by a combined 24 points with Haliburton at the point but was crushed by 36 in Brunson's minutes, putting the team in a hole too big to overcome.
More size on the perimeter would also help the U.S. on the defensive glass. Four players from the 2021 rotation grabbed at least 20% of available defensive rebounds the previous season: Adebayo, Durant, Green and Tatum. Among 2023 regulars, only Hart reached that standard. Meanwhile, Brunson, Haliburton and Austin Reaves were all weaker defensive rebounders than any player on the 2021 roster.
To some degree, this lesson will matter more when the 2027 World Cup in Qatar rolls around. USA Basketball will have far more options for size on the wing next summer, when Durant and Tatum are candidates to chase another Olympic gold medal. When the pool is more limited, the U.S. will have to be more selective to avoid a repeat of the past two World Cups.