As this week's mock expansion draft of the Seattle Metropolitans and the Quebec City Nordiques has illustrated, there would not be many star players available in a real expansion draft -- not without a very loose definition of the concept of a "star player." Whether virtual or real, an expansion draft becomes an exercise in "one man's trash is another man's treasure."
Or as we in the hockey analytics community might say, it becomes a search for "Moneypuck" players.
"Moneypuck" players are those who are undervalued because of a poor season, a stretch of bad luck, an injury or illness, advancing age, a lack of size or speed, or the infamous intangible issues, all while being underappreciated for tough defensive assignments, penalty killing, possession skills, shot-blocking, or faceoff expertise. Or maybe they're underappreciated for scoring only at a moderate level when not afforded top-six minutes or prime power-play ice time.
There were a few such players left on the board by the two mock general managers, players who might have made their teams more competitive. But more on them later.
Let's first take a look at the players chosen by Seattle and Quebec City to see how Hockey Prospectus' VUKOTA projections believes they will do in 2013-14. Each player's value to his respective team is measured in Goals Versus Threshold (GVT). GVT provides an overall measure of how many goals a player is worth, compared to an easily obtainable replacement such as an AHL call-up or waiver-wire pickup. Every three GVT translates into one additional point in the standings.
Bear in mind that both GMs did make their picks with the long-term health of the franchise in mind, and particularly in Quebec's case, having the strength of the team on defense did put it at a bit of a disadvantage in terms of GVT.
Seppa's Take on Seattle
With a comparatively whopping 9.3 GVT, the most valuable player chosen in the entire mock draft was Calgary's Lee Stempniak, an occasionally maligned but solid top-six forward who plays on both special teams. Stempniak, worth three standings points himself, is the biggest reason for Seattle's slight edge over Quebec City in our projections.
Toronto's Nikolai Kulemin also brings good value to the Metropolitans, and perhaps even more than his projected 4.9 GVT, given the tough even-strength assignments he received alongside Mikhail Grabovski this past season, as well as the 57 points and 12.7 GVT he registered as recently as 2010-11.
Of course, the team would be better off in the projections without bruisers such as Zenon Konopka and aging energy-line players like Adam Burish. On defense, the two Antons -- Anton Stralman and Anton Volchenkov -- could hold the fort until the team developed young talent. In goal, James Reimer and Semyon Varlamov were good choices.
Seppa's Take on Quebec City
Perhaps chosen as the "spare forward" by Quebec City, John Mitchell actually projects as its most valuable forward after registering a surprising 20 points and 4.7 GVT in 47 games for the Avalanche in 2013. Recently cast off by the Leafs and then the Rangers, Mitchell is a solid top-nine forward who can contribute on both special teams. Erik Condra, a fine defensive forward, also may be a surprise as the Nordiques' second-most valuable forward.
While the likes of Jared Boll, Zac Rinaldo and Mike Rupp don't really improve any NHL lineup, David Booth is an honorable mention for Quebec City. Projected by VUKOTA to play only 43 games, he has a chance to basically double the GVT shown -- if he can stay healthy, that is.
The blue line is the strong suit of this team -- you easily could envision a real team taking the ice with the six defensemen shown here. In particular, Nikita Nikitin is a complete two-way defender who could be a legit No. 2 defenseman on a good team (in our view, Columbus should have protected him, and not Jack Johnson), Johnny Oduya was a key piece to a Stanley Cup-winning top four in Chicago, and Stephane Robidas, Jason Demers and Deryk Engelland are all solid.
In net, Brian Elliott is an interesting case of a player who ranked dead last in the entire league by GVT in 2010-11, only to rank in the top five for the two-season span of 2011-13. On the other hand, the only case for the Quebec-based team taking Martin Brodeur is to generate fan interest -- his best playing days are clearly behind him.
So, the big question: How would these teams fare in the NHL in 2013-14?
VUKOTA rankings always cluster the teams much closer than how they actually finish during the regular season, because real-life teams hit stretches of good and bad luck, and some squads are decimated by injuries -- those factors spread reality out from best estimates.
That said, we have Pittsburgh as our top-ranked team in the projections, at 101 points, and Florida as our bottom-ranked team, at 80 points.
Using the same methodology, we would rank Seattle 31st with 76 points and Quebec City 32nd with 75 points, which isn't an entirely surprising result for two expansion teams.
But could the GMs have done any better? We think so. Here are some unprotected players who were not chosen but who easily could bring the expansion teams in line with Florida's 80-point projection. A few less Mike Rupps and Zenon Konopkas, and a few more Mathieu Perreaults and Jussi Jokinens would do the trick.