Jean-Gabriel Pageau was traded to the New York Islanders for a 2020 first-round pick and 2020 second-round pick. If the Islanders win the Stanley Cup this spring, they will also send the Ottawa Senators a 2022 third-round pick.
How did each general manager do in this trade?
Islanders get: F Jean-Gabriel Pageau
Senators get: 2020 first-round pick, 2020 second-round pick, conditional 2022 third-round pick
New York Islanders: B
The Islanders are a terrific, defensively structured team that has an offense problem. It cost the Isles a run at the Stanley Cup last spring, as New York was swept in the second round by the Carolina Hurricanes, scoring only five goals in four games. This season, the Isles rank 22nd in offense, scoring 2.84 goals per game.
This explains why GM Lou Lamoriello was willing to overpay for Jean-Gabriel Pageau. A first- and a second-round pick -- and potentially a third, should the Isles win the Cup this spring -- is rich for a 27-year-old who scored 20 goals for the first time in his career. Pageau has 24 goals so far, which is five more than he scored previously in his seven-year career with the Sens.
The Islanders better hope Pageau rides the hot shooting luck he has had this season. Pageau ranks 10th in the NHL in shooting percentage at an astronomically high 17.8 percent. Last season, Pageau was at 377th, at 4.8 percent. His career average entering this season was 9.3 percent, which he'll probably regress to at some point.
The Isles could use center depth, and Pageau will slot onto either the second or third line, giving them an immediate upgrade. He also meshes well with their style, so the hope is that it's seamless fit. The Islanders have a top-heavy prospect pool, hence why they were comfortable giving away first- and second-round picks. They also didn't have to give up any of their top prospects or roster players, which should be considered a win. And, they signed Pageau to a six-year contract extension on Monday, which makes the deal look a bit sweeter.
But this is far from a sure thing. To be honest, this feels like the package that the Isles could have used to get a player like Chris Kreider -- who is much more of a proven commodity. But this year's prices have been high, and if Kreider does get traded, he'll command more than that now. Pageau is one of the best rental forwards available outside Kreider, and the Isles are better off acquiring Pageau than doing nothing, which is what earns them a solid, if uninspiring B.
Ottawa Senators: A+
We all know the bottom-feeding Senators are in rebuild mode. They've now traded two of their top-nine forwards (besides Pageau, they also traded Vladislav Namestnikov to the Avalanche) plus defenseman Dylan DeMelo.
The return package for Pageau is perhaps Senators GM Pierre Dorian's finest work. He has traded a total of 39 players over the past three seasons, but nobody has yielded as much (for doing as little) as Pageau. To earn first- and second-round picks -- and that slim, but potential chance for a third -- for a rental 27-year-old who is playing out of his mind right now is incredible. Yes, the market is higher than usual. But this is an impressive return for a guy without a huge body of work.
Pageau has been an important player on the Senators this season, who are beginning to play a tougher brand of hockey and have bought in to rookie head coach D.J. Smith. But when contract negotiations were derailed (Pageau played himself to be too expensive for the typically stingy Senators), Ottawa was forced to trade him.
The Senators now own a total of 22 picks over the next two drafts, half of which are in the first two rounds. According to our Chris Peters, the Senators "have one of the deepest prospect systems in the NHL, and are loaded with top talent." Peters also noted that Josh Norris -- a top scorer in the AHL this season -- can be the natural replacement for Pageau in the near and long term. So while it's a short-term loss, the Sens are well positioned for the future. And maybe, one day, their ownership will pony up and play the existing players on the roster what they're worth to keep them around.