NFL execs predict Dak's (and Dallas') future: He bet on himself ... and will win

Dak Prescott is changing the way we look at bet-on-yourself quarterback money. Not only did he pass on the Dallas Cowboys' contract overtures this summer but he took ownership of a run-heavy offense on the way to a potential 5,000-yard passing season. He has ditched the middle-of-the-road label and makes a reasonable case for top-10 QB status, which deepens the intrigue on an already captivating negotiation.

He checks proverbial boxes NFL teams care about: toughness, mobility, leadership, touch, poise, durability, command of the huddle and line of scrimmage, marketability. Even in his worst statistical game of the season, Sunday's 13-9 loss to the New England Patriots, Prescott might have been a few tripping calls and dropped passes from an MVP moment. The loss wasn't all on him. He made several impressive throws.

All of these things cost exorbitant amounts that will force Dallas into some sort of concession eventually. But this negotiation is only beginning. Multiple sources told ESPN that the Cowboys are prepared to use the franchise tag on Prescott in the absence of a long-term deal they very well might not reach by season's end.

Here's where the intrigue deepens: The gap between the money Prescott's leverage commands vs. what executives see as his real worth is fairly wide. With help from NFL executives, veteran agents and ESPN Stats & Information research, here's how this saga could play out -- and how the Cowboys might structure a long-term deal.

"He's going to get a huge contract," one league personnel evaluator said. "Everything is playing out perfectly for him. Timing is everything."

Why will Dak get paid?

• Because he has waited patiently while the Cowboys have prioritized paying other stars, most notably Ezekiel Elliott, who held out while Prescott was grinding out training camp reps.

• Because he has played the team-first guy throughout the process and put wins above contract talks.

• Because he has been playing on a comically cap-friendly $2 million salary as part of a rookie contract, while top draft picks from his 2016 class, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, already cashed in with massive four-year deals of $134 million and $128 million, respectively.

• Because he led the NFL in passing yards per game through the first 11 weeks (322.1) despite the Cowboys dropping back to pass 59% of the time, the eighth-lowest clip in the league.

• And because, during that span, he has added more points to his offense than Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson or Patrick Mahomes. Based on ESPN's QB Points Added metric, which compares total production of a quarterback compared with an average quarterback (QBR of 50), Prescott was averaging 45.4 points added on the season entering the Patriots game. The closest was Jackson, who entered Week 12 at 39.0.

When will Dak get paid?

If Prescott will get paid isn't the question. It's widely assumed that Prescott will reset the market at some point. When that will actually happen is far less predictable. Despite the Cowboys' persistent public optimism that a deal would be reached, multiple sources say momentum stalled once the season began. And Prescott himself doesn't seem to be in a rush, saying earlier this month, "When it gets done, it gets done."

"It would be a surprise if anything got done during the season," a source has maintained throughout the process.

Since then, Prescott has posted 24 total touchdowns but has done it exclusively against teams outside of the top 10 in total defense (the Patriots and Saints held him without a TD). But December wins will only fuel earning power, and Prescott has a chance to become the Cowboys' first-ever NFL yardage leader in a single season.

The Cowboys and Prescott don't need to mess with negotiations when Dallas is trying to stiff-arm Philly for an NFC East crown. It's probably too late for all that anyhow.

Prescott can play this out and entertain free agency, even if only to tease. Late February and early March is when this will heat back up, pressed against the Feb. 25 deadline to put the franchise tag on him.

What can Dak get in a best-case scenario?

Prescott's Hail Mary contract ask this summer -- not taking a cent less than Wentz and Goff, and aiming for anywhere from $34 to 40 million per year, according to ESPN's Jeff Darlington -- was too rich for Dallas.

That was then. With a shift in leverage, don't be shocked if Prescott dusts off that old proposal. One veteran agent who has negotiated with the Cowboys many times says Prescott should do just that -- because he might just get it.

"One hundred sixty [million] over four [years]," the agent said when asked what he would propose. "With five to 10 [million] more guaranteed than the highest."

The highest would be Goff, who parlayed a Super Bowl appearance into $110 million in new guarantees. That looks like strained money as Goff gawkily navigates less-than-clean pockets this season.

While Goff's QBR has fallen from 63.6 in 2018 to 39.5 through 10 games this season, Prescott (77.9) has improved his by nearly 25 points. In fact, many numbers say Prescott, despite going 133 picks after Goff and Wentz, is outplaying both since 2016:

• Prescott has 38 career wins, and neither Goff nor Wentz has more than 30. He leads both QBs in yards per attempt (7.7) and QBR (69.9).

• Prescott's 109 total touchdowns far surpasses the totals for Wentz (91) and Goff (82).

To be sure, Goff and Wentz (four years, $128 million) were well positioned for quicker payouts. Both had two years left on their rookie deals with the fifth-year options, which allowed the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles, respectively, to restructure remaining money into the new deal. Goff's contract, for example, is really six years at around $166 million of new and old money. Prescott doesn't have that luxury. There's not much to roll over, which challenges Dallas to come up with guarantees outside of the first-round structure.

Wentz and Goff have had their brilliant moments on the field, too. But both the Eagles and Rams effectively strapped them with $36 million cap hits before they were asked to truly carry the team.

The Cowboys weren't willing to go quite that far. Instead, they risked inflation while watching Prescott handle a pressure-cooker season. It's up to Prescott to make them pay for that.

What should the Cowboys be paying?

Many around the league believe that Prescott is a good player but not a market-setter, and that Dallas validated that belief with a starting negotiation point a little too close to Kirk Cousins' $28 million per year in Minnesota.

ESPN Cowboys reporter Todd Archer reported Dallas got up to $30.5 million per year with an offer during training camp, to ensure Prescott is in the top five leaguewide. (There's so much more to contracts than per-year averages, of course, and guaranteed money is the true metric for player victories. But annual pay is the easiest reference point here.)

Months later, an executive says he'd be willing to take Prescott close to Goff's $33.5 million but not more than Wilson at $34 million per year.

"You could get him in Goff's range with some creative bonuses, but I don't see him in the class with Russell and Aaron [Rodgers]," the executive said.

And that's the problem: Prescott is worth as much as he's willing to take, and anything less than $30 million per year isn't in his stratosphere anymore. But many teams still can't stomach today's quarterback money, even for the top guys. The value thresholds for Prescott are all over the place:

"Not sure how to structure something that is going to be so big and unruly," one longtime exec said.

"I don't want any part of that deal, real or make-believe, because I don't think he's worth more than $18 million," another exec said.

Extremes aside, here's where the Cowboys can win: with a high per-year average well into the $30 millions, but with rolling guarantees in the middle-to-late years of the deal that don't kick in until June 1. By waiting a few months after the league year starts in March, the team creates its own flexibility.

"By having the 'vesting' of the guarantee not occurring until later ... you give yourself more time to make a decision on the QB before his money becomes truly guaranteed," said one NFL source with experience on the team salary cap and agent sides. "In years where there is no guaranteed money, from a club perspective, perhaps you put in option bonuses whereby if you choose to decline the option to terminate the contract, you get credit in the comp pick formula."

How the franchise tag alters the situation

A league source says the 2020 franchise tag value for quarterbacks will easily surpass $30 million, which gives Prescott a stellar baseline number to navigate. Once designated with the tag, he can follow the Cousins blueprint and rush to The Star to sign that thing before dawn.

Cousins' situation was far different. He was getting bum offers from Washington for two years. It treated him like a glorified backup. So Cousins dunked on the system, earning $44 million over back-to-back tags before Eurostepping his way into an $84 million guaranteed deal that the Minnesota Vikings grudgingly handed over, given their obvious need.

Prescott has more organizational clout in Dallas than Cousins ever had in Washington because the Cowboys have been on record multiple times that they will pay Prescott. They seem intent on pulling this off at all costs, even if public comments might affect leverage.

"We're just optimistic eventually we'll get something done," said executive vice president Stephen Jones, via ESPN Cowboys reporter Archer. "I mean, Dak's a class act. We love Dak. It's not like we're not willing to pay Dak a lot of money. We're just kind of arguing over some details here that at some point I think we'll work out."

Prescott can afford to wait on that signing, at least until the summer. Hold the leverage until a deal is done.

And if the Le'Veon Bell Franchise Tag Handbook taught us anything, it's that nothing is off the table if that mid-July deadline passes without a new contract; not training camp holdouts, not collective bargaining agreement loopholes, not Prescott playing pickup basketball at a local LA Fitness while his team plays games.

Most players hate the tag, but its use gives them a certain cachet. Even Trumaine Johnson, who couldn't cover a drag route this season in New York, once parlayed two tags into $72 million with the Jets. Franchise-tagged players inherit a healthy market before taking the field.

The problem with the tag is teams use it to taint negotiations well before they start. As soon as high-profile players submit that counteroffer, teams hit them with the "We'll tag you" threat. Many around the league believe that's already happened with Prescott and Dallas. Here's betting Prescott has been cool with that all along, because the pressure of a contract year clearly suits his game.

Prescott's top target, Amari Cooper, has employed a similar strategy. He knows the wide receiver franchise tag should reach $20 million, and as he's aiming for a 1,500-yard season, he's forcing the Cowboys into another choice: Sign him or Dak first.

As our Dan Graziano highlighted, the "Final League Year" of the current collective bargaining agreement allows teams to use franchise and transition tags, so if they apply tags to Prescott and Cooper in a few months, last offseason's drama will pale in comparison to the one upcoming.

The Cowboys might not be able to do this in 2021 under a new CBA, but they can now.

What about the cap implications?

The Cowboys' $58.983 million in 2020 cap space will deflate quickly thanks to a loaded 2020 free-agent class.

Let's say the Cowboys hand Prescott and Cooper about 60-65% of that space. That leaves limited resources to bring back corner Byron Jones, pass-rusher Robert Quinn, wide receiver Randall Cobb, defensive tackles Michael Bennett and Maliek Collins and make any potential free-agent additions.

The usage rate of the Cowboys' upcoming free-agency class is strong: Six players have ranked in the top 50 in snaps played at their position, including top-30 turns from Prescott (ninth), Jason Witten (seventh) and Collins (29th). Despite a lack of turnovers (two interceptions in five years), Jones might be the most difficult to keep.