As each NHL team is eliminated from playoff contention -- either mathematically or by losing in the postseason -- we'll take a look at why its quest for the Stanley Cup fell short in 2018-19, along with three keys to its offseason and a way-too-early prediction for what next season will hold.
What went wrong
One of the most high-octane offenses in the NHL this season saw their gauge hit "empty" by the end of the campaign. The Calgary Flames were tied for second in the NHL in goals per game at 3.52 with the San Jose Sharks. But they started to sputter down the stretch, with four of seven games in which they scored one goal or less and then four straight games in the Stanley Cup Playoffs where they managed two or fewer goals against the Colorado Avalanche.
Johnny Gaudreau, who had 36 goals and 63 assists in the regular season, managed just one assist in five games. Sean Monahan, who had 34 goals and 48 assists, had a goal and an assist in five games. The Flames were sixth in the NHL in even-strength goals at 188. In five games against Colorado, they managed just four of them.
Some of this can be chalked up to Avs goalie Philipp Grubauer playing out of his gourd for about three weeks to end the season, a trend which continued in this series. But the fact remains that a Flames team that rolled to the best record in the Western Conference on the strength of its offense left the postseason all too meekly.
Keys to the offseason
Assess the goaltending. Mike Smith lost his bid to become a modern day Tim Thomas (or, failing that, Dwayne Roloson) in losing in the first round. The bar was set at "don't be a liability," so it was cleared by the 37-year-old goalie, but he still wasn't all that great in the regular season (.898 save percentage). He's an unrestricted free agent this summer.
David Rittich, 26, is a restricted free agent and was the superior goalie in the tandem this season (.911 save percentage, 2.61 goals-against average and a 27-9-5 record). Jon Gillies, once considered heir to the Flames crease, had a brutal season in the AHL. Do the Flames go goalie shopping this summer? (Heck, the Avalanche did last summer and look what they found.)
Sign Matthew Tkachuk. We'll assume Sam Bennett, a fellow restricted free agent, gets his contract done fairly easily, but what about Tkachuk? His 34-goal breakout season established the 21-year-old as one of the league's emerging talents, especially given is propensity for pest play (ask Drew Doughty). How much does he make and for how long? Good question. Better question: Will his salary eclipse both that of Gaudreau ($6,750,000) and the $7 million Jarome Iginla made at the height of his earning potential? One assumes the answer is yes.
Find a problem contract to take on in exchange for James Neal. What a disaster. The 31-year-old former "Real Deal" signed a six-year, $30-million free agent contract with the Flames after the Vegas Golden Knights decided to move on. It seemed like a sound investment: Every season Neal played in the NHL, he crossed the 20-goal mark. This season with the Flames? Seven goals, 12 assists in 63 games, and a healthy scratch in the playoffs. The good news is that he had no trade protection. The bad news is that his stock has never been lower, and he has five more years at $5 million annually. The Flames need to find another team with a contract they'd like to swap. (Thus begins the Phil Kessel-for-James Neal speculation...)
Figure out what happened. While this upset wasn't exactly at the magnitude of the Blue Jackets sweeping the Lightning -- both in duration and in expectation -- it was a rather alarming defeat for a conference champ. It'll be up to GM Brad Treliving and coach Bill Peters to diagnose the malfunction, even if that diagnosis ends up being "beaten by one dynamic line and a hot goalie."
Realistic expectation for 2019-20
Challenge for the conference title again. Probable Norris Trophy winner Mark Giordano will be 36 (and is basically ageless) while everyone else is in their prime. Address the issues above, learn from this quick exit and press on.