Looking ahead for the Ottawa Senators: The rebuild begins in earnest

As each NHL team is eliminated from playoff contention -- either mathematically or by losing in the postseason -- we'll take a look at why its quest for the Stanley Cup fell short in 2018-19, along with three keys to its offseason, impact prospects for 2019-20, and a way-too-early prediction on what 2019-20 will hold.

What went wrong

Everything. OK, nearly everything.

The season began with the trade of star defenseman Erik Karlsson to the San Jose Sharks ahead of his pending free agency this summer. While the return was seen as paltry at the time, it did bring back Chris Tierney (who set a new career high in points this season) and young defenseman Dylan DeMelo. But after a brief flirtation with contention -- the Senators were a .500 team for the first two months of the season -- their season ended up in the basement after a 5-15-1 stretch from mid-December through February. There is, shall we say, quit in this team: Through 69 games, the Senators were 5-22-1 when trailing after the first period.

Attention turned to the trade deadline, where GM Pierre Dorion was either going to convince pending free agent stars Matt Duchene and Mark Stone to remain in Ottawa or sell them off. It was the latter: He sent Duchene and center Ryan Dzingel to the Blue Jackets and Stone to the Golden Knights, getting a healthy return for them all.

Weirdly, coach Guy Boucher was fired after the deadline and Marc Crawford took over on an interim basis, when it was widely assumed owner Eugene Melnyk would just pay the guy to babysit until the offseason.

As far as what went wrong, most of the answers are found off the ice. And we're not just talking about a bunch of Senators players getting caught on camera in an Uber bad-mouthing their coach, which was an actual thing that happened.

The relationship between fans and management remains contentious. Tickets were being given away for games. Melnyk's bid for a downtown arena fell apart. NHL commissioner Gary Bettman doesn't hold a media availability without someone asking if the league will step in to "save" the team. He always says that the NHL has no reason to do so; perhaps they don't have the answers, either.

Keys to the offseason

Find the right coach. Sure, snicker all you want at someone actually wanting this job. But keep this in mind: There are only 31 (soon 32) of them. Someone is going to take it, even if it's the NHL equivalent of managing the worst McDonald's in the district. Dorion is on the record as saying that he wants "a teacher," "a listener" and "a communicator" in his next coach, likely leaving off "at a discount rate" from the sales pitch.

Will he go with a retread in the hopes that he finds the next Gerard Gallant? Or will he go the more preferable route of hiring someone who can grow with a rebuilding team? (And is there any way the Toronto Maple Leafs allow AHL coach Sheldon Keefe to slip to their division and province rival?)

Become a salary dump. One thing that the Senators have going for them is over $35 million in cap space this summer. Which makes them perfectly positioned to take on any number of contracts that teams are looking to excise from their salary caps, accepting picks and prospects for doing so. Yes, getting those players to waive no-trade clauses will be a problem, but hey, wouldn't Milan Lucic dig playing top-line minutes again?

Cast a hex on Columbus. As you're no doubt aware, the Senators do not own their first-round pick this season, and will watch in horror as the Colorado Avalanche take that pick -- acquired for Duchene in 2017 -- to the draft lottery, where they will likely have the best odds at landing Jack Hughes.

But the Senators' draft future looks a lot better after the trade deadline, with three first-rounders and five second-rounders in the next two seasons. What they need from Columbus: For the Blue Jackets to fall short of the playoffs, get a top-three pick and then re-sign Duchene. That would give the Senators the Jackets' first-rounders in 2020 and 2021 -- aka in a post-Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky world. But we're sure Ottawa would settle for getting the Jackets' first-rounder this season, already acquired, and next season, if they sign Duchene.

Impact prospects for 2019-20

Drake Batherson, RW, age 20: Batherson has already appeared in 20 games with the Sens this season, and may not be a true rookie by the time 2019-20 rolls around (he loses Calder Trophy eligibility for 2019-20 once he plays game No. 25 this season). However, he's due to have a much bigger role, and has been one of the more pleasant surprises in the prospect world in the past two years. A 2017 fourth-round pick, Batherson has seen his development soar to the point where he has been one of the best rookies in the AHL this season, leading all first-year players with a 1.16 points-per-game average. Batherson is a confident, smooth offensive player who can do a little bit of everything.

Erik Brannstrom, D, age 19: The key piece in the return for Stone, Brannstrom has a shot at being a full-timer next season based on his play in the AHL in 2018-19. He has 29 points in 45 games, which is pretty impressive for an under-20 defenseman. Brannstrom is offense-minded, and could probably use a steady veteran partner in his first NHL season. But with the right deployment, he should be able to put up big points as a rookie, and more importantly continue on his current development track. He'll turn 20 just before next season begins.

Rudolfs Balcers, LW, age 21: Set to lose rookie status before this season is over, Balcers is another who should see his role increase in prominence. He has good puck skills and has two strong campaigns of AHL production as evidence he's ready to help the NHL club. Balcers was one of the prospects who came over in the Erik Karlsson trade.

Christian Wolanin, D, age 23: A call-up at various points this season, Wolanin has taken the right steps as a first-year pro by taking on a big role in the AHL and holding his own when needed by the NHL team. The former North Dakota standout is a confident defender who can move the puck up ice.

Alex Formenton, LW, age 19: The Sens flirted with keeping Formenton on the NHL roster this season, but ultimately sent him back to junior. He has missed significant portions of the campaign with an injury, and was forced to miss the World Junior Championship. When healthy, Formenton has devastating speed and should challenge for a spot on opening night.

Realistic expectation for 2019-20

Another season near the basement, by design. This is going to be a long road back for the Senators. The good news is that they're amassing picks and prospects, like defenseman Brannstrom, the blue-chipper they received from Vegas for Stone. They have some great young players on the roster in Thomas Chabot (22), Colin White (22) and Brady Tkachuk (19). Another campaign diving to the bottom might not help fill seats in the arena, but drafting Alexis Lafrenière first overall in 2020 would.