The Buffalo Sabres deal from a cache of surplus first-round picks to add 24-year-old blueliner Brandon Montour. Did the Anaheim Ducks give up too soon on another talented young defenseman? We grade both general managers.
Sabres get: D Brandon Montour
Ducks get: D Brendan Guhle, conditional 2019 first-round pick (San Jose's pick, or Ducks have option to take St. Louis' pick if it's between No. 20 and No. 31)
Sabres: A
The Sabres were the toast of the NHL in late November. A 10-game winning streak had them atop the NHL standings. Jeff Skinner and Jack Eichel looked like an unstoppable duo. The franchise's seven-year playoff drought appeared to be coming to an end. Since then, it has been nothing but frustration in Buffalo. Only three teams have a worse record than the Sabres since their winning streak was snapped on Nov. 29. Defense hasn't been the only issue, or even the biggest issue. But it was clear Buffalo could use some upgrades.
Under the pretense that maybe this wasn't going to be their year -- the Sabres are currently six points out of the second wild-card spot in the East -- Buffalo has been telling potential trade partners they will not deal one of their first-round picks for a rental. (The Sabres own their pick, plus San Jose's and St. Louis').
That's why acquiring 24-year-old defenseman Brandon Montour makes sense; he has a $3.3875 million cap hit and is under contract through the 2019-20 season. Montour is a good player with a strong all-around game. He is averaging a career-best 22:40 per game. He can help the Sabres this season, but next season also. And if the Sabres like what they see? He's a restricted free agent when his contract expires, with arbitration rights, and they can extend him. It's never easy to part with a first-round pick, but getting Montour in the system only adds to Buffalo's young core that is expected to grow together. This doesn't deviate from the overall rebuilding plan.
They know what Montour is; they don't know what the draft pick will be. And they have two other first-round picks, so they're not mortgaging their future for this one player. Considering the conditions of the pick, this is likely a late-first-rounder, too.
Brendan Guhle is a promising prospect, but has had some inconsistencies at the AHL level and hasn't been able to crack a regular NHL role yet. Guhle was drafted in the Tim Murray regime, so Jason Botterill wasn't too attached. As far as left-handed defensemen in the organization, Lawrence Pilut (25 NHL games this season) had surpassed Guhle on the depth chart.
The addition of Montour could be only the first move for Buffalo. Their biggest need is secondary scoring (despite having Skinner and Eichel, they are 23rd in league scoring, with 2.82 goals per game). There are rumblings that Montour's addition to the blue line could allow Botterill to leverage Rasmus Ristolainen in a trade for a forward. If that's the case, Buffalo will get even closer to its goal.
Ducks: B-
When GM Bob Murray fired Randy Carlyle, he decided to become the interim coach himself. It wasn't an ego thing. It wasn't because there weren't good candidates available. It was because the GM felt he needed to be around the team every day to identify what the true issues were.
We can say this confidently: Brandon Montour was not the issue. In fact, the 24-year-old is what the Ducks should be looking for: young players who are ascending. He has high offensive upside, and is solid enough in his own end. Montour has averaged a career-high 22:40 per game this season. On a porous defensive team, Montour's underlying statistics aren't amazing, but his true potential should be realized once he is freed from Carlyle's system.
So why give up on him now? Sure it was to get more for the future, but it was also about future financial planning.
Right-handed-shooting defensemen are in high demand this season, so the return needed to be big for the Ducks (especially considering this isn't a rental). The first-round pick was the bigger get here. Anaheim now has two first-round picks in 2019, although the pick acquired is likely late in the first round, since it is from the Blues or Sharks.
Guhle isn't a scrub, either; he has already gotten a taste of NHL action with 23 games in the past three seasons and could get a better opportunity in the Anaheim system. He'll probably get a look right away with the big club this season so the Ducks can get a better assessment.
In the end, this is probably about Montour's next contract. The Ducks had already stressed about what to pay Montour. This past summer, they listened to offers on him from other teams, but ended up avoiding arbitration with a new two-year deal in July. Montour is up again in two years (with arbitration rights) and with other young defensemen in the system -- such as Andy Welinski and Jacob Larsson -- perhaps Anaheim felt that Montour was expendable, especially if he was going to be expensive.
Of course, there's inherent risk about parting with a young defenseman before he realizes his true talent. Remember how the Ducks sacrificed Shea Theodore in the expansion draft? Theodore turned out to be awesome for the Vegas Golden Knights and is a huge part of their blue-line plans for the future. (Of course, part of the reason Anaheim had to part with Theodore was that they were log-jammed with talented defensemen such as Josh Manson and Sami Vatanen).
If this was the most the Ducks could get for Montour, so be it. It's one step forward in the retooling, but not a step that's really going to move the needle on the trajectory of the franchise.