It seems to happen just about every NHL draft season, usually around the World Junior Championship. The presumptive No. 1 pick for the following June's draft almost always plays and that tournament becomes a referendum -- at least among fans and media -- on that player's status as No. 1.
This year was probably one of the most intense post-WJC debates I've seen. Both Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko played at the World Junior Championship. Hughes played in only four of a possible seven games because of an injury and registered four assists. Kaapo Kakko saw his role only increase for Finland, appearing in all seven games and finishing with five points. Kakko also scored the gold-medal-winning goal in the final minutes of the championship game against Hughes and Team USA.
For many hockey fans, it was the first time they got to see Hughes and Kakko head-to-head, and the latter performed better. Hughes was playing through an upper-body injury sustained in pretournament play and aggravated during the team's first game. Maybe it wasn't a completely fair fight.
Either way, people saw what they saw, and suddenly Hughes' grip on the No. 1 spot that has appeared inevitable since last season at least seemed to loosen. So just how close is it?
The case for Hughes
Hughes is a special talent, pure and simple. He has what many have referred to as the "wow factor." He can make plays that most other players in this draft class cannot. Some of them might not even see the options that become available to Hughes, who not only has the vision, but also can make all of the plays at top speed.
It's the speed that is probably the single largest separating factor between our No. 1- and No. 2-ranked prospects. Hughes is an exceptional skater who can make plays with his feet just as easily as he can with his hands. His ability to cover the offensive zone efficiently and evasively is a big reason he continues to put up stunning numbers at the USA National Team Development Program (NTDP), scoring at a historic pace for the training ground that has produced each of the past four Americans who went first overall in the NHL draft. Though at 5-foot-10 and 168 pounds, he lacks size. His speed intimidates opposing defenders and he can back them down, gain the zone and make plays.
Because of missed injury time and his trip to the World Juniors, Hughes has appeared in 28 games for the U.S. U18 team, which some scouts are calling the best team the NTDP has ever had. He has played 14 fewer games than the rest of his teammates but is still second on the team in scoring with 56 points. Averaging two points per game against a mixed schedule of USHL, NCAA and international opponents is unprecedented at the NTDP. Auston Matthews, now with the Toronto Maple Leafs, is the next closest with a 1.95 points per game rate during his U18 season.
The production, the skating and the hockey sense are all key factors that have allowed decision-makers to place Hughes' relatively slight frame down several notches on the scale of importance. His recent injuries might be cause for further investigation, but I don't think it would scare anyone away outright.
The last factor that was cited multiple times was a bit of positional bias. Hughes is a No. 1 center, while Kakko is a top-line wing. In almost all scenarios where it's even perceived to be close, the team drafting is going to take the center.
The case for Kakko
The reasons Kakko has narrowed the gap derive from his performance at the World Junior Championship and that he is performing at a high level against better competition during his regular season. At 17 years old, he is playing top-line minutes for a professional team and producing at a level that correlates with some of the best young Finnish players in the NHL today.
Kakko has produced 24 points in 33 Liiga games, giving him 0.73 points per game, a tick above the 0.72 points-per-game rate of Patrik Laine (Winnipeg Jets) during the regular season of his draft year. Only two current NHL players had better U18 scoring rates in Liiga: Aleksander Barkov and Mikael Granlund. That says a lot to scouts about Kakko's readiness to make the jump to the NHL, and it's a very tangible reference point to sell to the general manager when discussing draft boards.
Another advantage for Kakko is that he's bigger. The NHL might be getting smaller and faster, but size still matters in enough corners. That might not be enough for Kakko to overtake Hughes, but it stands to note that Kakko's most recent measurement via Central Scouting Services is 6-foot-2¼ and 194 pounds. Kakko uses that frame well, particularly in puck protection, winning battles along the wall, and it definitely has helped him get to the net.
I also would suggest Kakko has a better shot than Hughes, making Kakko the bigger goal-scoring threat. Kakko is generating 4.67 shots on goal per game for TPS. Hughes shoots the puck at similar rates as Kakko, but the latter tends to get better results, as he has a heavier, quicker shot.
This is another year that the team in the No. 2 slot -- and I really think any team in the top eight or so -- has a chance to land a pretty significant prospect. Kakko is definitely going to make whichever team drafts him very happy, but it's still hard to see him doing enough to overtake Hughes at this point.
Scouts weigh in
You might recall Laine didn't really close the gap on Matthews until he went off in the Liiga playoffs, but it seems like Kakko has a larger hill to climb at this stage of the season compared to his Finnish counterpart in 2016. Each NHL scout I contacted for this story said that the decision remains clear for them. Bob McKenzie with TSN also polled scouts for his annual midseason draft ranking: 10 of 10 respondents came back with Hughes as the No. 1.
So, while the public narrative might have suggested a closing of the gap, the industry opinion is largely unchanged.
"For me, the separator is pace of play and execution," said one NHL scout in favor of Hughes. "I'd take the center who makes guys around him better."
"Hughes all the way," said another. "Look at USA [at the Five Nations] without him."
The U.S. U18 team, which had not lost an international game previously over the past two seasons, struggled without its No. 1 center in the lineup, falling to third place in the five-team tournament. Hughes had 15 points over his first three games at a previous U18 tournament earlier this year. No, that's not a typo.
One scout admitted that Kakko has grown on him, but he has yet to overtake Hughes in his mind.
"Kakko is kind of like Matthews-lite," the scout said, referencing his size, deliberate pace of play and more calculating style. "Hughes has that 'wow factor' though."
"I don't see it as much of a debate," said another scout who favors Hughes. The scout then also noted that it's easier for some to pick Hughes apart and nitpick because they've been hearing about him and seeing him for a longer period of time.
It's still only February, so you have to leave the door open for the possibility that Kakko continues to gain ground. There also is one more opportunity for the two to go head-to-head, as both Hughes and Kakko are expected to play for their respective nations at the 2019 World Men's Under-18 Championship in Sweden in April. At that tournament, Kakko will look to go 3-for-3 in such head-to-head IIHF World Championship competition, as he also helped Finland win gold over Hughes and the U.S. in last year's U18 final.
The top of the draft can be more fun when there's a little bit of drama about who will go No. 1, but for now, there does not appear to be much brewing.