Rasmus Dahlin hadn't even played a single NHL game before the Jack Hughes hype train started roaring down the tracks. It hasn't stopped and won't stop for a while. So with our top 100 NHL prospects list coming out this week, I wanted to dive into the next, next one and see where scouts thought Hughes would hypothetically fit into the top 100 list if he were eligible.
Based on some preliminary conversations, it was pretty clear that the talented Florida-born, Toronto-raised teenager would be in the hunt for the top spot, despite being just 17 years old and not yet drafted (and thus making him ineligible for our list to begin with). Separate from those conversations, I asked a random sample of six scouts who they would choose to build around if the choice came down to the presumptive No. 1 in 2019 in Hughes or 2018's first-overall pick in Dahlin, a defenseman.
Four of the six NHL scouts said they would take Hughes over Dahlin, while two were firm about their preference that Dahlin would still be their No. 1. And personally, I'd side with Hughes, as well.
"You can't pass up a forward who makes everyone around him better," said one Western Conference scout regarding Hughes. "If Jack was eligible last year, I think if you polled 31 GMs about who is No. 1 between him and Dahlin, it would have been interesting. I think it could have been 18-13 or 17-14 for Jack."
Another scout said, "You can win the Stanley Cup without an elite No. 1 defenseman."
The two who would choose Dahlin cited his all-around talent and the scarcity of true No. 1 defensemen as reasons to go with the dynamic Swede.
"Dahlin impacts the game in all facets," said another Western Conference scout who has seen both players many times over the past two years. "Hughes is better offensively and will get numbers. But Dahlin is a better all-around player; I think he has a chance to be the best defenseman in the game. I love both players, but Dahlin is so special and so rare."
And as an Eastern Conference scout of Dahlin, "To play with his poise -- you can't teach that, and he's only going to get better. Hughes is a dynamic offensive threat, but I think his defense is really weak; the question I have is if the offense is enough to compensate for it."
There are obvious challenges in comparing these two players given the position difference and the gap in accomplishments. Dahlin has already played two years of professional hockey, putting up unprecedented numbers for a U18 defensemen in the Swedish Hockey League and immediately making the Buffalo Sabres out of camp. Hughes, meanwhile has done most of his damage against closer-age peers, even though he was producing at high rates last season against college and USHL teams that often feature players at least two to three years older than him.
As we saw from this small sample of scouts, many have different preferences when it comes to team building. One of the scouts who chose Dahlin qualified his answer by stating that he believes in building teams from the net out, which is why he thinks Dahlin could be the better building block. Others are always going to side with the forward, especially if he's a center. As one scout who chose Hughes said, "Championship teams are built up the middle."
Corey Pronman, The Athletic's NHL prospects writer and formerly of ESPN, wrote about the various statistical factors that come into play when deciding between a defenseman and a forward. In most but not all cases, the forward is usually the safer option. That decision becomes way tougher when it's a generational defenseman like Dahlin, though.
Coming into June's draft, it was really difficult to find flaws in Dahlin's game. He had the size, skating ability, creativity and smarts to be a factor in all zones. We're already seeing him put those things together at the NHL level. It is likely that as Dahlin gets more comfortable he'll end up playing 22 to 24 minutes per game, whereas most forwards won't top 20.
Among the scouts I've talked to, some expressed concern about Hughes' defensive play and his size. That has been a common theme for Hughes and older brother Quinn. At 5-foot-10 and 168 pounds, Jack Hughes would be the smallest first-overall pick since Patrick Kane, who was listed at 5-foot-10 and 178 pounds in his draft season. The size factor hasn't really held Kane back, as he leads everyone else in his draft class by more than 200 points and has averaged better than a point per game over his career.
As rare of a commodity as Dahlin is -- and he is extremely unique in terms of his overall talent and the position he plays -- I personally can't shake Hughes' ability to break a game open on his own on so many nights. It's not like it's just a sometimes thing. You can almost guarantee he will end the night with at least a point -- and with a few plays that leave you wondering exactly how he did that.
Over the summer, we detailed how Hughes essentially had one of the best seasons, if not the best season ever, for an American 16-year-old, having collected 116 points in 60 games at the National Team Development Program. The previous high for a U17 player in that program was 82. Meanwhile, he fell just one point shy of tying Auston Matthews, who had 117 points in his U18 season. Just as Dahlin's two years in the SHL were essentially unprecedented for a player his age, so too was Hughes' past season. We'll have to see what the young American does this year after opting to return to the NTDP for his U18 season despite a few other options on the table.
I think these two are really close in terms of overall value. I often lean towards the data regarding play-driving centers, as I think there is a higher premium on players who possess a unique enough skill set to challenge NHL defenders on a shift-by-shift basis. There are so few players like that in the league, and I think Hughes could be one, as did four other NHL scouts who have been watching him regularly. Based on the small poll and my own viewings of both players and a look at the numbers, I'm giving the slight edge to Hughes on this one and projecting that he would be the No. 1 seed if he were eligible for our top 100 this year.
In fact, the 2019 draft is shaping up to have a lot of talent. Right now, there are probably at least seven players from the class who would have made my top 100 list in some capacity, including Kirby Dach, Dylan Cozens, Kaapo Kakko, Vasili Podkolzin, Matthew Boldy and Bowen Byram, in addition to Hughes.
Whether you prefer Dahlin or Hughes, the greatest part about all of this is the numerous young players coming into the league and having a big impact so early. Since Sidney Crosby arrived in the league amid hype as "The Next One," it seems that every year we're getting superstar talents who are changing the league for the better. We've been on a pretty good tear lately, spearheaded by the ultimate "Next One" in Connor McDavid. It has been incredible to watch. And now we have a couple of more potential game-changers in Dahlin and Hughes.